How much to get you off Lord Shanakill?

NT

Im not totally on, I will be using with 3 others in the pick 3

Omg, lord shanakil was gonna be my big tip for the weekend!! Back to the drawing board!!

You should probably reconsider the whole weekend.

can anyone tell me the start time for the breeders cup on sat.?:

10:05am California time, 1:05pm for us on the east coast.

Although I love Careless Jewel I have to agree with you vis a vis the pro ride. I would be all over her if it were dirt.

I agree on this one. She really seems to like the Santa Anita surface as well.

There's this long forgotten old handicapping angle called "The Best Horse"

In the Juv Fillies - Connie and Michael is probably the horse who best fits that angle... and the win of hers was at 7 furlongs... not six.

If you remember back to last year ... the horse who came into this race as "the worst horse" was 2nd time starter Dave's Revenge. She finished 4th beaten just 3 lengths by Stardom Bound at 64/1 odds. A nose behind Sky Diva for 3rd place.

You shouldn't forget about her ... because she makes a great trivia question. The question being 'name the horse who ran 4th in a Breeders Cup in just it's 2nd lifetime start ... and was claimed for $16,000 the following summer"

People will instantly think colt ... because any filly who misses 3rd by a nose in a BC race in just it's 2nd start - would figure to have more than 16K residual value as a broodmare prospect.

Her dam sire was Afternoon Deelites .. maybe that 4th was her version of a Hollywood Futurity romp over Thunder Gulch. I don't know.

Anyway, I'm not sure Connie and Michael has to get bet and will be one of the shortest prices.

People will be foolish enough to recall the Forest Music debacle... and FM was a horse who went a record 20.80 at the FT Calder 2yo sale. That was back when that type of preview was unheard of.

This is a totally different kind of horse than a one-way speed crazed stopper like FM.

Facepalm

Careless Jewel is heaven sent for Life Is Sweet.

If you're in the camp that is of the believe that Zenyatta's been made to look extremely ordinary in her last two races because of slow paces ... what does that say for Life Is Sweet - who was the only horse in the race even more disadvantaged than Zenyatta in both instances?

Life Is Sweet is very likely who I will be betting in the Distaff.

Shes ok...

Life is Sweet is Jeff Siegal's sleeper bet of the Distaff for all the reasons you just mentioned, she will be completely forgotten and will be a big price.

In regards to your concern with Ventura and pace, I have watched almost every race there this meet, pace means nothing, it is all about turn of foot on that track

If I am watching the race and I see 25/50 (which would probably be the slowest I have ever seen in a 7f race) I still wouldn't be concerned

I think it's certainly possible that Connie and Michael could end up being the best horse going forward but I want no part of a horse that's being asked to do so much so fast. Even in this day and age where horses are being run in races with fewer preps and more time between races, going 1 1/16 miles on a new surface off of one 7 furlong race just flies in the face of conventional handicapping, in my estimation.

If you were asking this of a horse that was an outsider and you had reason to think they could make this type of leap at a fair price then one might consider it, but Connie and Michael is just not going to offer the value necessary to take such a calculated risk.

NT

If Precious Passion wins, I hope nobody gets on here and writes that he had a perfect trip. I've never seen such a race that is so clear cut. The gates open he opens up a 10 length lead, fill in the blank after that.

stop taking my angles, I made those arguments in her last couple of races and got laughed off the board....that being said it does look to me like the long campaign may have taken something out of her.

Only one prediction to make at this point. Zenyatta wins whichever race she runs in and it's going to be easier than the final margin suggests.

I agree.