Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 1027692)

:o Sorry about that

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1027691)

Because Frosted may have the slightest look as an outside longshot from a pace perspective, where Materiality will be the typical over-hyped, over-bet TAP entry that has already proven he's not capable of rating.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1027694)

Has Materiality even ever won a race wire-to-wire? He was far back early in the Derby and finished well.

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1027695)

He rated off Stanford a colt that worked in 9.8 and is speed ball. His slop mdn race he was on pace as well. the Florida derby he was sent and who can count anything from that surface good or bad that day. He could be a closer? but that trip in derby hardily validates that is his preferred style. All that trip suggests is he was 4th or 5th best horse in the race that day.

Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 1027631)

Well, you're half right, at least as far as my post-Belmont response. I can't remember ever going back to dig up ridiculous posts and quoting them when they've been proven wrong (or at least highly dubious), but I may make an exception in this case. That's how over-the-top I think the accolades have been for a horse that to me has shown no more quality than Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown and California Chrome had at the same stages of their careers. (I won't put Silver Charm in that list because SC won his KD and Preakness against 2-3 other horses with BSF's in the 115 range, and was more impressive, IMO.)

But if AP wins the Belmont, I can't think of a scenario that would keep me from joining the worshippers, short of some truly calamitous event that wipes out most of the competition. I won't care if AP has the most perfect of perfect trips/setups--if he can get 1.5 miles on top of everything else he's done and beat these more-rested horsess, then he's truly worthy in my book.

In fact, it seems to me that the ones making excuses in advance are the very people who think AP is so spectacular. I keep reading about all the things that can go wrong in the Belmont from the AP-Is-The-2nd-Coming camp. It's almost like they don't believe the hype themselves.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1027695)

He rated off Stanford a colt that worked in 9.8 and is speed ball. His slop mdn race he was on pace as well. the Florida derby he was sent and who can count anything from that surface good or bad that day. He could be a closer? but that trip in derby hardily validates that is his preferred style. All that trip suggests is he was 4th or 5th best horse in the race that day.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1027673)

This is really good.

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1027682)

People look for the most logical horse because its been an impossible task to conquer and so it makes sense to bet anyone but the favorite, which frankly has been a good strategy for 40 years. Just not this year.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1027694)

Has Materiality even ever won a race wire-to-wire? He was far back early in the Derby and finished well.

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1027700)

No, it's really not.

It's completely backwards.

You should try your hand at stand up comedy.

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1027704)

Semantics, Rollo. He pressed a still maiden in the slop in his maiden breaker, pressed a confirmed quitter in the Islamorada, and pressed an average Bluegrass Singer before dueling with Upstart, who would later just quit in Kentucky.

Frosted's off the pace effort in the Kentucky Derby was clearly better than Materiality's off the pace effort, and if his saving grace, "pressing" AP, is what folks are holding out hope for - well, you can see the what he was up against when successful doing so in the past.

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 1027705)

:confused:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1027713)

I'll explain.

The AP detractors are the ones throwing around excuses as to why AP keeps winning, often accusing his fans of doing just that as to why he might lose the Belmont.

The reality is that the detractors keep reaching for more and new absurdities, often contradicting their own earlier absurdities.

Heck, I've been accused of various things ranging from chest thumping, claiming credit for his success and even being somewhat the zealot.

The funny thing with that one is that, as we've discussed on Facebook, I'm not even convinced that AP is the best horse in this crop.

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1027713)

The AP detractors are the ones throwing around excuses as to why AP keeps winning, often accusing his fans of doing just that as to why he might lose the Belmont.

The reality is that the detractors keep reaching for more and new absurdities, often contradicting their own earlier absurdities.

Heck, I've been accused of various things ranging from chest thumping, claiming credit for his success and even being somewhat the zealot.

The funny thing with that one is that, as we've discussed on Facebook, I'm not even convinced that AP is the best horse in this crop.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1027708)

"Clearly better" usually means more than one out of ten people that know anything about watching races would agree with you. I would have trouble finding one out of 100 that actually think Frosted's Derby effort was "clearly better" than the effort of Materiality.

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1027721)

Right. Materiality had a clear run from the inside, and still finished 3 lengths off a horse that needed to work a trip, settle, move earlier, and managed to close into and round out the Super...oh, and ran 28 feet further. :zz:

I would have hoped that Materiality would have run a decent last quarter, as the horse was lost for the better part of the race. Keen Ice must be considered a real threat too, following this line of reasoning.

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1027721)

Right. Materiality had a clear run from the inside, and still finished 3 lengths off a horse that needed to work a trip, settle, move earlier, and managed to close into and round out the Super...oh, and ran 28 feet further. :zz:

I would have hoped that Materiality would have run a decent last quarter, as the horse was lost for the better part of the race. Keen Ice must be considered a real threat too, following this line of reasoning.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1027699)

Let's just reveal the elephant in the room:

Materiality has the talent, and most importantly, the early speed, to hinder American Pharoah's bid to stay 12 furlongs.

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1027721)

Right. Materiality had a clear run from the inside, and still finished 3 lengths off a horse that needed to work a trip, settle, move earlier, and managed to close into and round out the Super...oh, and ran 28 feet further. :zz:

I would have hoped that Materiality would have run a decent last quarter, as the horse was lost for the better part of the race. Keen Ice must be considered a real threat too, following this line of reasoning.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1027722)

What were you up to between the 1/2 mile pole and the 1/4 pole during the Kentucky Derby?

Couldn't have possibly have been watching the race.