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-   -   2009 Breeders' Cup (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=32101)

MISTERGEE 11-04-2009 01:24 PM

yeah, those friday fields are too short mostly

Danzig 11-04-2009 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32
anybody think Pure Clan has a shot? Always a big fan of that horse..


when i read this on drf, i remembered your question...


'Pure Clan seemed reluctant to gallop at all over the turf. She needed a few taps from the rider just to get her past the finish line the first time around and then appeared stiff while never really stretching out at any point coming through the stretch.'

jpops757 11-05-2009 07:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone
I think some really crazy stuff would have to happen for monster payoffs on Friday. Outside of the JF/JFT, the other races look fairly formful/chalky. Maybe I'm missing something, but yeah...

With most people pointing to Ventura as a big single in multi=race bets, I think Sara Louise has a shot at upset here. I know that 9/2 ML is not a big shot but she has only lost to Indian Blessing, Rachel and her debut. Lightly raced and always fires. I agree that double didget odds dont look very likely on fri but some nice payoffs by beating the favorite in the right race.

Travis Stone 11-05-2009 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpops757
With most people pointing to Ventura as a big single in multi=race bets, I think Sara Louise has a shot at upset here. I know that 9/2 ML is not a big shot but she has only lost to Indian Blessing, Rachel and her debut. Lightly raced and always fires. I agree that double didget odds dont look very likely on fri but some nice payoffs by beating the favorite in the right race.

I think she is a O2X candidate and could be sitting on a massive regression, especially at a short price.

I wish Evita Argentina was second-off in this spot as she would be a great underneath longshot. Still, all her closing sprint efforts are strong. Also in that vein, Silver Swallow could be 3rd or 4th best if a couple tank.

Scav 11-05-2009 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone
I think she is a O2X candidate and could be sitting on a massive regression, especially at a short price.

I wish Evita Argentina was second-off in this spot as she would be a great underneath longshot. Still, all her closing sprint efforts are strong. Also in that vein, Silver Swallow could be 3rd or 4th best if a couple tank.

Who is 02X? Sara Louise?

I haven't looked at them fully yet but I seem to remember her pairing her last and this is third off the layoff and said to be training really well

jms62 11-05-2009 09:38 AM

I'd be interested to find out peoples thoughts on horses drawing 9+ in the turf route races at SA. So far this meet it has been no mans land but there hasn't been a lot of races. From a Historical perspective has this always been the case. I really liked Interactif but with the draw I am having second thoughts.

NTamm1215 11-05-2009 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62
I'd be interested to find out peoples thoughts on horses drawing 9+ in the turf route races at SA. So far this meet it has been no mans land but there hasn't been a lot of races. From a Historical perspective has this always been the case. I really liked Interactif but with the draw I am having second thoughts.

Considering Interactif's running style and past performances I'd be surprised if his post position is the reason he loses.

NT

jms62 11-05-2009 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215
Considering Interactif's running style and past performances I'd be surprised if his post position is the reason he loses.

NT

So if he loses you can claim victory regardless of whether or not it was post position related. Kind of a win/win for you? You should be a public handicapper;)

Travis Stone 11-05-2009 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Who is 02X? Sara Louise?

I haven't looked at them fully yet but I seem to remember her pairing her last and this is third off the layoff and said to be training really well

Off the layoff she went 104, came back with a grueling effort against Indian Blessing to go 103.

02X is a Sheets term but I use it on Beyers as well. I think at a short price you gamble on her going 104-103-regress.

Scav 11-05-2009 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone
Off the layoff she went 104, came back with a grueling effort against Indian Blessing to go 103.

02X is a Sheets term but I use it on Beyers as well. I think at a short price you gamble on her going 104-103-regress.

a 1 pt regression....I don't think you are using that term correctly, if she ran a 96 then maybe, but 1 pt can be a bunch of minuscule things.

Travis Stone 11-05-2009 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
a 1 pt regression....I don't think you are using that term correctly, if she ran a 96 then maybe, but 1 pt can be a bunch of minuscule things.

True, it's used loosely in this case but it always will be when referencing Beyers. The race was a real dogfight, easily the hardest race she's ever run, and now she's on a new surface, traveled across country etc.

philcski 11-05-2009 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone
True, it's used loosely in this case but it always will be when referencing Beyers. The race was a real dogfight, easily the hardest race she's ever run, and now she's on a new surface, traveled across country etc.

i agree- she ran consecutive -2's off the bench, i think she's uber talented but just don't like her in this spot because it just screams regression. Synthetic should be no problem with her sire though.

MISTERGEE 11-05-2009 01:44 PM

Interactif is 4/1, Codoy lost to him by a length yet is 15/1. Can someone explain to me if Interactif is that much better than Codoy?

cakes44 11-05-2009 01:45 PM

From what I saw he is.

MISTERGEE 11-05-2009 01:47 PM

what did ya see?

cakes44 11-05-2009 01:52 PM

I saw Interactif wide and uncovered the entire trip, then make a sustained wide move and easily hold off Codoy. Maybe Codoy can jump up, but as of 10/11, Interactif looked like a superior horse.

MISTERGEE 11-05-2009 01:58 PM

thanks for the info, didnt see that race

NTamm1215 11-05-2009 01:58 PM

Codoy is much, much more than one length worse than Interactif when you take into account race flow and their respective trips.

NT

Chalky 11-05-2009 03:52 PM

Thanks Brockguy
 
Thanks for the oversees link. I think it helps sort those out.

Antitrust32 11-06-2009 12:41 PM

Good luck and have fun everybody! Hope all horses return safe!

Danzig 11-06-2009 01:38 PM

Goldikova will run on lasix. just read a link from paulick report about it.

slotdirt 11-06-2009 02:16 PM

Am I the only one just noticing Man of Iron is out of Better than Honour? Run away!

slotdirt 11-06-2009 02:42 PM

Er, I meant, like literally, run away.

slotdirt 11-06-2009 04:13 PM

So yeah, if you're looking to close, you're kind of up against it, or at least so it appears from watching the first five races today - both turf and dirt.

RockHardTen1985 11-06-2009 04:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
Am I the only one just noticing Man of Iron is out of Better than Honour? Run away!

I think most of us noticed it well over a week ago.

randallscott35 11-07-2009 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Did you bet the Breeders Cup last year?

Zenyatta has a chance to hit the board, only because she runs good over the track, but a horse like Gio Ponti will beat the piss out of her.

Hmmm.

Travis Stone 11-07-2009 06:09 PM

I think we should avoid the pissing contest for a few hours and enjoy this awesome performance. Breeders' Cup / horse racing is an event of opinion, and we all have one, but I would say we all have the opinion the Classic today was one of the most exciting ever.

CSC 11-07-2009 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone
I think we should avoid the pissing contest for a few hours and enjoy this awesome performance. Breeders' Cup / horse racing is an event of opinion, and we all have one, but I would say we all have the opinion the Classic today was one of the most exciting ever.

Well said, regardless if one prefers poly, dirt, turf races. I thought this was one of the better BC's from a betting perspective and Zenyatta just capped it off with a performance that will be remembered in BC lore.

Left Bank 11-07-2009 06:15 PM

This was a Great Breeders cup.I just hope Zenyatta stays in training.

randallscott35 11-07-2009 06:20 PM

No pissing contest at all. Tom had a good call with Gio Ponti. I posted that Z was the likeliest winner but an underlay and that's exactly what she did....I have to say I still think Rachel should get it but I'm happy Zenyatta won.

SCUDSBROTHER 11-07-2009 06:43 PM

She obviously does what she needs to do, and not much more. She had a whole lot left to do at the top of that stretch, but she inhaled them.

mbahadur 11-07-2009 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Left Bank
This was a Great Breeders cup.I just hope Zenyatta stays in training.

.

The Mosses hinted a month or so ago that she might. The Dubai World Cup on synthetic could be tempting before retiring her to be bred. She now has about $5.5 million in lifetime earnings -- if she won the Dubai World Cup, she would have to be close to Curlin for the record.

RockHardTen1985 11-07-2009 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mbahadur
.

The Mosses hinted a month or so ago that she might. The Dubai World Cup on synthetic could be tempting before retiring her to be bred. She now has about $5.5 million in lifetime earnings -- if she won the Dubai World Cup, she would have to be close to Curlin for the record.

They should keep her in training another year.... Now there is truly TRULY NOTHING TO LOSE. They could have an east coast campaign, a Dubai World Cup, all dirt, all vs the boys. It could be special

hockey2315 11-07-2009 07:36 PM

DWC isn't on dirt.

They have very little to gain from running her again.

timmgirvan 11-07-2009 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315
DWC isn't on dirt.

They have very little to gain from running her again.

During the TV chatter I think the owners said she desrved to go out undefeated with her record in tact.

Left Bank 11-07-2009 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315
DWC isn't on dirt.

They have very little to gain from running her again.

I don't think Moss is out to "gain anything from running her",as you say.I think he just enjoys seeing her win,and from the replies from him and Sherriffs,they were more concerned about the fans and how much everybody loved seeing her run.I don't think Moss is in this to gain anything.He has more money than God.I think he just enjoys racing and seeing others enjoy it also.

hockey2315 11-07-2009 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Left Bank
I don't think Moss is out to "gain anything from running her",as you say.I think he just enjoys seeing her win,and from the replies from him and Sherriffs,they were more concerned about the fans and how much everybody loved seeing her run.I don't think Moss is in this to gain anything.He has more money than God.I think he just enjoys racing and seeing others enjoy it also.

Odd response.

Obviously the money is irrelevant to him - and that was part of my point - nothing to gain from purses.

The other part is that for her legacy she has very little to gain. Her undefeated record is now the #1 concern since she already has the big win. If she were to go to Dubai she would have to leave the comfort of her stall in CA, ship halfway across the world, and face what is likely to be a field full of international freaks including the best European horses now that the race is for $10M on synth.

letswastemoney 11-07-2009 09:13 PM

I'd like to see her face Rachel in the Donn Handicap, even though I realize this matchup will never happen

10 pnt move up 11-07-2009 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney
I'd like to see her face Rachel in the Donn Handicap, even though I realize this matchup will never happen

6 year old mares....has there every been a top class 6yo mare?

Sightseek 11-07-2009 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
6 year old mares....has there every been a top class 6yo mare?

Azeri.


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