Has anybody made excuses for Jazil yesterday? I haven't heard any.

Forgot about War Emblem selling for cheap as a weanling, same with Funny Cide. Afleet Alex probably was sold as a youngster as well before the Fasig Tipton MidAtlantic sale.

STS, I didn't leave out the effect of track takeout. I said that not being willing to bet Corinthian at 2-1 suggests that one does not think Corinthian has a 33% chance to win the race. That statement is independent of takeout. If Corinthian has better than a 33% chance to win the race, then 2-1 is a good bet. (even more so when 2-1 represents everything from 2-1 to 2.49-1). I also wrote that if Corinthian has at most a 33% chance to win the race, then the other horses must have at least a 67% chance to win the race. That's also independent of takeout. The chance of all the horses has to add to 100%.

I agree with you that most races don't have a good bet. I usually won't bother to make a line unless I have good reason to think the public will seriously over- or underestimate a particular horse. Even then, I often end up with no horse to bet.

I didn't cap the Corinthian/Jazil race, so I can't really comment on the odds you came up with.

--Dunbar

Has anybody made excuses for Jazil yesterday? I haven't heard any.


Ummm, the jockey moved too soon, Corinthian was just too fast for him, Gulfstream favors speed.

Corinthian was just too fast isn't an excuse, it's a fact.

True, but I really found the jockey moving too soon very funny. Like it would have mattered when he moved.

LOL Slot... not sure why, but this comment sounded funny to me. :D

If one horse being faster than another is an excuse, then there's an excuse for every horse in every race.

Slot,
I'm just happy to see Corinthian back. That was a very serious injury, and when I first started talking about him last year, well, I know Jim Jerkens had his hopes on finally having a derby horse. Didn't happen.
My best guess is that good things are ahead.
btw...this year I'm looking at Exhale. His sire, Millenium Wind, stands at High Cliff Farm where I breed mine. Take a look...nybreds.com, link at right (blue),
Click stallions...also press room.

That performance way exceeded Jimmy's expectations yesterday, that I can tell you. This horse has a huge future if able to stay healthy. Couldnt happen for a better guy.

This has nothing to do with me.

Is Jazil a good horse compared to the average horse? Of course. But is he a good horse compared to past Classic winners? Certainly he would be in the bottom 10% in modern times. Is he a horse that has won 2 races in Feb of his 4 year old year? Yes. Would he have won the Belmont had it really meant anything and Bernardini had run? Most likely no. Could he improve and go on to be a top calibur horse? Maybe but if were to retire right now history would soon look at him as another Sarava, Commendable, or Go and Go who are all forgetable except to the connections.

Scuds has a clue?? Check back in 2015.

If Jazil was a $25k horse then the story might have a little more appeal.

Funny Cide is way ahead now

jara did move to soon ..fyi

He's not a mediocre $25k horse....and that was my point. I don't think we're really that far apart of our opinions on him now that you revised it a few posts ago. He's not likely to accomplish what Funny Cide has due to what you stated earlier. They're aren't 1 1/2 mile races for him. Therefore he'll be left to pick up the pieces in the races that are available to him and probably make quite a bit of money in the process. I just don't consider any horse mediocre that picks up checks multiple times in graded events. Is he mediocre within the handicap division? Possibly. The rest of his career will tell.

I never revised my opinion on the horse . Until proven otherwise he is a 2nd tier handicap horse that needs a distance that he will not get and has a style that makes it tough for him on the dirt.

Picking up checks is great for those on the Dee Tee stable budget but you expect a little more from Classic winners. The fact that he has lost three times in three chances in allowances races does not lead me to believe that he is on his way to the head of the class anytime soon.

Slot, I don't think WE was sold as a weaning, he was a home-bred to Reinenman, who died like two years later after selling him. The guy had all the money in the world, and went and did that.

You have the opposite in Calabrese, who hasn't sold Dreaming of Anna, because he has all the money in the world, and loves winning races

I'm not positive. I posted that he sold for 20k and Slot was replying. I found it on SI.com derby archives. It said 20k as a weanling but I'm not sure.

Ok, so maybe revised isn't a good word. Maybe clarified would be better. I agree that he is a mediocre classic winner, not that he is a mediocre horse.