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-   The Steve Dellinger Discourse Den (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=4)
-   -   Cash for Clunkers Success (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=31144)

dellinger63 08-20-2009 07:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riot
People going back to work in America is unworthy of a big hooray?

Except that far more than 1350 people are affected. The families who now can come off unemployment, food stamps, and Medicaid (that makes me happy, because I help pay for that), and keep their houses, buy groceries, and have a little disposable income to put back into their local economy and keep them solvent and maybe cause some new hires (like florists, the local pizza place, the dry cleaner); in addition to the couple of thousand jobs associated with ancillary industries that feed parts and materials into GM autos and depend upon that industry - steel, plastics, manufacturing parts industries - that will also have to rehire people and increase production to meet the needs of their client GM.

The recession isn't going to end magically all at once, with everyone going back to work all at once. Every step in the right direction is good.
Except we could have paid each one $2,000,000.00 (two Million Dollars) kept just under 400K for us and sent home all these workers processing the rebates that aren't getting processed (duh it's the Government) saving more money, saved a forest load of wood used to make the paperwork, shut off all the lights in those rebate processing offices and each compensated worker could start a small business that would employ mutiples of 1300. You know the Republican way!!!! Plus those no good government rebate workers could go work for private insurance companies and learn how to actually 'process' in between breaks.

Danzig 08-20-2009 07:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riot
People going back to work in America is unworthy of a big hooray?

Except that far more than 1350 people are affected. The families who now can come off unemployment, food stamps, and Medicaid (that makes me happy, because I help pay for that), and keep their houses, buy groceries, and have a little disposable income to put back into their local economy and keep them solvent and maybe cause some new hires (like florists, the local pizza place, the dry cleaner); in addition to the couple of thousand jobs associated with ancillary industries that feed parts and materials into GM autos and depend upon that industry - steel, plastics, manufacturing parts industries - that will also have to rehire people and increase production to meet the needs of their client GM.

The recession isn't going to end magically all at once, with everyone going back to work all at once. Every step in the right direction is good.
millions out of work, and 1350 makes a difference? lol
unemployment is expected to remain above 10% for some time-and once cash for clunkers dries up, and demand dissolves, where will those 1350 be? so yeah, a hooray for them-but not a big one.

Danzig 08-20-2009 09:04 PM
and now i see cash for clunkers ends monday. probably because they're so far behind processing payments they don't know where they even stand at this point. i wonder how many dealers will end up holding the bag?

Riot 08-20-2009 09:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dellinger63
Except we could have paid each one $2,000,000.00 (two Million Dollars) kept just under 400K for us and sent home all these workers processing the rebates that aren't getting processed.
Your math leaves out alot.

More terrible news for you: It's so successful it's ending Monday; 40% of claims have been processed, should be current next week; so far auto dealers have made deals worth $1.9 billion (helping save their small businesses, their employees jobs, contribution to their local economies, etc) and the incentives have generated more than 457,000 vehicle sales (getting gas guzzlers off the road, and newer more efficient cars on, and prompting gearing back up of the auto industry, with rehiring of employees, etc).

And Hyundai recalled 3,000 workers in Alabama.

Riot 08-20-2009 09:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
millions out of work, and 1350 makes a difference? lol
unemployment is expected to remain above 10% for some time-and once cash for clunkers dries up, and demand dissolves, where will those 1350 be? so yeah, a hooray for them-but not a big one.
Yes, unemployment is always the last thing to return to normal after any downturn, and it's expected to be high for two years. It will still be high when the economy is definitively growing.

And if those 1350 do end up laid off again sometime in the future, next year - at least you should be happy they were off the public dole for a year, and you and I weren't paying for their food and housing.

dellinger63 08-20-2009 10:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riot
Your math leaves out alot.

More terrible news for you: It's so successful it's ending Monday; 40% of claims have been processed, .
What you want another 3 Billion? And 4% not 40% have been processed. But then again your math dictates you pay $120 instead of a $30 co-pay to keep your insurance from being increased. Lastly good for Hyundai they're laughing all the way back to Korea as are their Japanese neighbors. At least they should need less aid next year. Maybe we can recoup some then, but I won't hold my breath.

Cannon Shell 08-21-2009 01:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riot
Yes, Cannon, the first thing that should be done is that the loan-shark consumer revolving credit industry should be left completely alone as it is now, because all that matters in the economy and the lives of consumers is the next week - not the next 10-20 years.
No one said that nothing should be done. What was done does have some unsightly side effects that will felt far longer than next week. It is a smoke and mirrors victory against credit card companies which negatively effects responsible consumers. Hardly a cause for celebration.

dalakhani 08-21-2009 02:00 AM
i dont know how anyone could not view cash for clunkers as a success regardless of how moderate you might view it. Making it into some kind of failure erodes credibility.

There are many holes that can be punched into the policies of the current administration (or any administration if you will). Even W. had successes. This is one of Obama's.

Danzig 08-21-2009 06:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
i dont know how anyone could not view cash for clunkers as a success regardless of how moderate you might view it. Making it into some kind of failure erodes credibility.

There are many holes that can be punched into the policies of the current administration (or any administration if you will). Even W. had successes. This is one of Obama's.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32497875...business-autos

Smooth Operator 08-21-2009 10:08 AM
Looks like at least 700,000 sales when this stunningly successful program ends Mon.



Well done, BO...

JJP 08-21-2009 11:10 AM
Just wait to see auto sales 6 months from now, or a year down the line. They will be down. People who were considering getting a car (those who qualified) just bumped up the purchase date to take advantage of the free money. Rob future sales to prop up current sales. Another bandaid solution.

ArlJim78 08-21-2009 12:43 PM
this program can only be viewed as a debacle. spending billions to give to certain people that would have bought cars eventually anyway. there is no net benefit.

the laughable part is to see first hand how incompetent government programs are and the unintended consequences like people turning in US models for foreign cars.

dalakhani 08-21-2009 01:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
Im not saying that this is any kind of silver bullet for the car industry. As I said, depending on how you view it, the degree of success is certainly arguable. My point was that there is no debating that this program was indeed a success on some level.

dalakhani 08-21-2009 01:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
this program can only be viewed as a debacle. spending billions to give to certain people that would have bought cars eventually anyway. there is no net benefit.

the laughable part is to see first hand how incompetent government programs are and the unintended consequences like people turning in US models for foreign cars.
What difference does it make if the cars turned in were US models?

Riot 08-21-2009 03:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JJP
Just wait to see auto sales 6 months from now, or a year down the line. They will be down. People who were considering getting a car (those who qualified) just bumped up the purchase date to take advantage of the free money. Rob future sales to prop up current sales. Another bandaid solution.
That doesn't make any sense to me. Car sales have been way down. People were waiting, holding off to buy cars. All this did was unleash the pent-up waiters that hadn't bought in the last few months, encouraging them to go ahead and jump into the economy.

I don't see any reason to assume these were "future" buyers. Why do you also assume that car sales will dry up in the next year?

BTW, "cash for clunkers" programs were used last year in several European countries. That's where the idea came from. Worked just as well as it did here. Subsequent sales didn't dry up. Which countries economies are turning around before us?

Riot 08-21-2009 03:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
That article confirms that Cash for Clunkers was a resounding success. It retroactively comments on the execution, mostly based upon government underestimation of the popularity and success.

Riot 08-21-2009 03:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
this program can only be viewed as a debacle. spending billions to give to certain people that would have bought cars eventually anyway. there is no net benefit.
.
But they were not buying cars. That is the point. We were in a deep recession last year, deeping towards a depression. Nobody was buying cars. Auto workers were laid off. The industry was in deep trouble. The program obviously was a success in that it got thousands spending money in the economy. Which is what is needed to get out of a recession.

Riot 08-21-2009 03:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dellinger63
What you want another 3 Billion? And 4% not 40% have been processed. But then again your math dictates you pay $120 instead of a $30 co-pay to keep your insurance from being increased. Lastly good for Hyundai they're laughing all the way back to Korea as are their Japanese neighbors. At least they should need less aid next year. Maybe we can recoup some then, but I won't hold my breath.
Too bad "American" companies don't make an efficient, well-made car people preferred. You said you bought "foreign", so you supported them yourself.

Those 3000 American Hyundai workers are probably laughing all the way back to the bank, off the unemployment lines, too.

ArlJim78 08-21-2009 08:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riot
But they were not buying cars. That is the point. We were in a deep recession last year, deeping towards a depression. Nobody was buying cars. Auto workers were laid off. The industry was in deep trouble. The program obviously was a success in that it got thousands spending money in the economy. Which is what is needed to get out of a recession.
people weren't buying cars for a reason and they still won't be buying cars now that this program has ended. the last thing we need is more of the phony borrow and consume economy. we need to save and invest.

this is only a temporary artificial demand, it means nothing in the long run with regard to the real economy. it will make a spike in car sales to be followed by a trough.

I'll bet you didn't know that during the runup to this program car prices were raised, so the deal buyers got wasn't all you might think.

this has next to nothing to do with when the recession ends. government spending does not create wealth or growth, just the opposite.

Danzig 08-21-2009 09:11 PM
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32512922...nting_america/


While small in comparison to other stimulus programs, Cash for Clunkers adds to the perception that Obama is simply trying to spend his way out of the economic downturn and let future generations deal with the consequences. The White House is expected to announce next week that the federal deficit will be a record $1.58 trillion for the current 2009 fiscal year, about $262 billion less than predicted earlier but still three times as large as last year.

"It fits into that theme of artificially trying to pump up the economy in the short run but in my view at the expense of long-term growth," said Chris Edwards, an economist with the libertarian Cato Institute. "It increases the government's debt and will probably, like those other temporary programs, produce higher inflation in the future."


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