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tremendous props to shadwell for returning jazil and invasor to the track-they could easily have retired them both.
funny isn't it, we talk of what could have been with bernardini and his ilk, while many down the ones that are still out there putting it all on the line. |
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Maybe the public has been over-rating his chances of winning, but there is no need to knock the horse for that. He is what he is. |
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I couldn't help but be PO'ed when I saw pics of Bernie running in the snow...he should be doing that on the track. |
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On their homepage they have a photo of Circular Quay...he isn't the most attractive horse out there. |
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If you don't think Corinthian is worth a bet at 2-1, then that suggests you think he has less than a 33% chance to win the race. So, who would you give the remaining 67+% chance to win? A good chunk of that HAS to be Jazil's against that weak field. --Dunbar |
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Bernie looks a lot like Slew! Funny how different they look when they're out of their "element" out in the paddock. :)
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After Corinthian was allowed to get the first half-mile in 47 3/5, which is a mild workout for a horse of his caliber, it's no surprise that he could sprint home in 1:00 2/5, which he could do standing on his head. Jazil's premature move was a result of the slow early pace and the jock not wanting to get stuck 10 lengths behind a 48 half. The race was the wrong shape for a closer like Jazil.
The question on Corinthian is what happens when he goes up against Barcola or some other speed freak (22.83 first quarter in the Donn). Will he run with them and still win by many, will he rate, or will he burn out? |
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I was at the race and did not bet it, so no rationalizing here, either. You leave out the effect of takeout. To me that means it's often the case that there's no horse in any single race worth betting if the actual odds do not exceed your own handicapped line for every horse in that given race to the extent you require to make a wager. When I looked at this race, I was close in my estimation of what the horses would go off at. I figured JAzil would go off at 4/5, Corinthian at 5/2 and King of Jazz at 7/2. The others I was close on. I would have bet Jazil at 3/2, Corinthian at 7/2 or KoJ at 9/2. None of these were at those numbers. Total "acceptable" odds for these three horses alone add up to about 1.15-1, so I knew going in it was a race I would not be very likely to bet. Most races look this way to me. You? |
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Well said Canon Shell and I doubt you'll take the bashing like Point Given 1985 did when he posted his thoughts about the 2 horses.
Corinthian is a versatile sort who can adapt to any race scenario. He doesnt rely on pace. He wins when he is the best, plain and simple. No excuses. Excuses are like 100K cars in Miami...everybotty got em. |
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Gander, what Cannon Shell said and how he said it was decidedly different than how this pointgiven character said what he had to say. When you call out the world on a horse like Jazil, you're going to take some grief for it. When you start several different threads proclaiming a horse won't finish in the exacta for a particular race, people are going to call you out on it when said horse comes in for the place. These are two entirely different types of posters.
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These are two entirely different types of posters.
They sure are. One is a scuccessful horse trainer and the other is a 21 year old college kid with a gambling vice. |
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