Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 725359)

And you're still not going to confess that you were wrong about Munnings?

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 725347)

The $650,000 horse got hurt and never made it to the races. I do admit that it was a stupid comment though. There are so many things that can go wrong with a horse that you can never "guarantee" that one will turn out to be a stakes horse.

You mentioned a few horses that I was wrong about.

Let's look at all the horses I mentioned in the thread on promising 2 year olds and 3 year olds. We were talking about horses who had just broken their maidens. Here is a list of every horse I mentioned:

1. Uptowncharlybrown- He came back and won a stakes race.
2. Bear's Hard Ten- He came back and won a stakes race.
3. Sidney's Candy- He won the Santa Anita Derby
4. Bulldogger- He was totally mishandled but still won an allowance by 5 lengths and got a 103 Beyer.
5. Sister Dawn- She's won 3 races since then, two allowance races and a stakes race.
6. Kajiwara- Came back and ran 2nd beaten a length in 1:08 4/5.
7. Cowboy Gets Even- My worst pick. He came back and ran 2nd twice in a row in allowance races but never showed the ability of a good horse.
8. Trappe Shot- Won two allowance races, a stakes race and ran 2nd in the
Haskell.
There was only a single horse (Cowboy Gets Even) on that list whose ability I was probably wrong about.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 725363)

I'm amused you included Sidney's Candy - as you only mentioned him after his stunningly impressive maiden win.

It would be like someone saying they "like" Uncle Mo after he wins his debut by a pole with a triple digit Beyer at Saratoga. Or saying they "like" Quality Road after he runs a triple digit Beyer in his debut at AQU. Or saying they "like" Curlin after he runs a triple digit Beyer in his debut at Gulfstream. Or saying they "like" Big Brown after he wins his debut by a pole on turf at Saratoga.

It's kind of annoying when someone has the potential to be a good poster around here ... but instead they'd rather pull a Baghdad Bob routine because a horse like they like lost.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 725363)

I'm amused you included Sidney's Candy - as you only mentioned him after his stunningly impressive maiden win.

It would be like someone saying they "like" Uncle Mo after he wins his debut by a pole with a triple digit Beyer at Saratoga. Or saying they "like" Quality Road after he runs a triple digit Beyer in his debut at AQU. Or saying they "like" Curlin after he runs a triple digit Beyer in his debut at Gulfstream. Or saying they "like" Big Brown after he wins his debut by a pole on turf at Saratoga.

It's kind of annoying when someone has the potential to be a good poster around here ... but instead they'd rather pull a Baghdad Bob routine because a horse like they like lost.

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 725369)

Can I get Super Poster brownie points for Big Brown -- as a few on here can attest, I liked him before that maiden start. :D

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 725373)

I actually bet either $150 or $200 to win on him in his debut at 14-1. I would have bet more but I just wasn't that confident that he would be fit to win first time out going long. That trainer (Patrick Reynolds) did not have great numbers with first-timers.

Originally Posted by slotdirt (Post 725374)

You might be good at a lot of things, Rupert, but I think this thread has shown that you really weren't very good at watching races on at least one Saturday a couple weeks back.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 725379)

So all these people, myself included who think that Zenyatta looked really stiff and uncomfortable in the early going (not to mention Mike Smith who admitted that he thought about pulling her up) are all hallucinating or imagining things?

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 725370)

I think I'm good at distinguishing between a 5 length maiden winner that is a good horse versus a 5 length maiden winner that isn't much horse,

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 725370)

and I don't base it on the time they ran

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 725383)

It's a hell of a lot easier than people think.




I don't either - though it is obviously a factor I take into consideration.


However, perhaps you should.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...35&postcount=1

Call me crazy ... but Funny Cide, Discreet Cat, Big Brown, Quality Road, Plagerist, Ghostzapper, Southern Image, Spanish Chestnut, and Pro Prado sure sound like a much more impressive collection of horses than ...

Uptowncharlybrown, Bear's Hard Ten, Sidney's Candy, Bulldogger, Sister Dawn, Kajiwara, Cowboy Gets Even, and Trappe Shot

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 725389)

I'm usually not going to post one that is a no-brainer to everyone. I didn't feel the need to post Uncle Mo. He obviously looked like a slam dunk to everyone. I did post Boys at Tosconova because I saw the race live and knew that most people probably hadn't seen it yet.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 725405)

There typically is very little to no betting value in those type of impressive maiden winners.

The real value comes when you can identify very underrated horses who are soundly beaten in lesser races - and don't have the best of forms going in.

There was a horse racing blog I believe called 'Trader Pete's Boom Boom Room' that was probably the best racing Blog in the land for all of the three or four days it was running.

Trader Pete did a single 'Horses to Watch' list after Saratoga's meet concluded. He only put one horse exiting a stakes race on the list .. Big Drama - who was beaten double digit lengths in the King's Bishop.




Trader Pete put only a single 2-year-old on his watch list... a horse named Eightyfive in a Fifty who was 3rd at 27/1 odds in a maiden race in his most recent race.



Trader Pete made two nice calls - because 85ina50 won his next start by 19 lengths and Big Drama was given a layoff and returned to win the BC Sprint the following year.

Obviously - I just want to pat my buddy StoneGossard in the back - and mention his fine old site. http://traderpete.blogspot.com/

But basically, there is little value in impressive maiden winners. There's a lot more with soundly beaten horses who run better than people think.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 725418)

He had a pretty good following on the site but he finally shut it down because he was afraid that he was costing himself money by giving out the plays to people who may be betting into the pools.

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 725423)

If Rupert thinks he's going to win a battle of bragging...he really doesn't know who he is dealing with.

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 725423)

If Rupert thinks he's going to win a battle of bragging...he really doesn't know who he is dealing with.