Derby Trail Forums - Thank You Mine That Bird

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)

- The Paddock (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=2)

- - Thank You Mine That Bird (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29440)

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

A horse who, bad as he was, on paper looked easily as good as the winner. Why would the rail catapult one and not the other?

I'm just not buying it. Don't get me wrong, I don't think the rail hurt, and maybe it helped a little, but the winner RAN......and that's the biggest factor. It was the horse....not the rail and not the rider. Not a criticism of Borel, who is a low percentage jockey, that probably hurts more horses than he helps with his rail riding nonsense, and his act worked yesterday, but let's also not pretend that the rider got in a horse suit and masqueraded himself into the winner's circle.

I'm not sure that we really disagree that much. I'm not saying that Mine That Bird won the race BECAUSE of a rail bias. A bias is not going to make winners out of all horses, only those that run and are able to make use of the advantageous conditions. Mine That Bird likely won because he liked the off going, and he got a fortuitous trip, and there was not a lot of running going on from the other 18 starters in the field, and the rail was the place to be.

When I conclude that the rail was the place to be yesterday, just take a look at the chart comments on the winners of the dirt races: Raposa "set pace along the inside"; Riley Tucker "set pace along the inside"; Luv Gov "saved ground" and won with an inside-out move; Glenwood Canyon "close up while racing inside"; Accredit "rated vying for the lead near the rail" with My Pal Charlie the only closer to make up ground late - again inside; Four Gifts "angled in" during the first furlong and also won with and inside-out trip. I could go on, but I think you get the point.

If I were looking for overlays for future races, I would be looking at yesterday's card and trying to pinpoint horses with wide trips on the dirt course for future reference.

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I'm with you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

If I were looking for overlays for future races, I would be looking at yesterday's card and trying to pinpoint horses with wide trips on the dirt course for future reference.

Absolutely!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

What if one of the more "logical" horses had won this race, the same way as Mine that Bird did? I'm talking about one of the 3 superstars (Friesan Fire, Pioneer and the allowance winner Dunkirk). What if their jockey made the same move as Borel did and won as emphatically?

Would we be hearing a bunch of whining and ridiculing or rather talk of the first triple crown winner in 30+ years looming?

....great point, you know we would........it would be funny as hell if the bird wins the preakness and is shooting 4 the triple crown..

Quote:

Originally Posted by BOMBTHREAT

Still waiting to hear your derby bets.....

:rolleyes:

It was odd seeing the crew pulling 2x4s with sand bags on them over the track . This track was not formful. At least not with 20 horses entered . MTB jumped up on it and shocked .

Quote:

Originally Posted by sumitas

It was odd seeing the crew pulling 2x4s with sand bags on them over the track . This track was not formful. At least not with 20 horses entered . MTB jumped up on it and shocked .

which is why i think it's funny that the POTN fans are pointing at the race as some indication of what he can do. evidently it proves his prowess, but no one else's.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BOMBTHREAT

And still waiting......

Funny how as soon as I ask you about your genius plays I can't find you with a posse.

You do know that the guy gives his opinions on a daily basis, right?

Quote:

Originally Posted by BOMBTHREAT

And still waiting......

Funny how as soon as I ask you about your genius plays I can't find you with a posse.

Why in the world, unless you have a personal agenda with BTW, would you care what someone plays in a race that you yourself called a toss?

If the race was in your words "a toss", "nothing like the kentucky derby", "like a mountaineer claiming race", "very unusual IYO"
why in ****s name do you care what that guy picked?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Why in the world, unless you have a personal agenda with BTW, would you care what someone plays in a race that you yourself called a toss?

If the race was in your words "a toss", "nothing like the kentucky derby", "like a mountaineer claiming race", "very unusual IYO"
why in ****s name do you care what that guy picked?

you already answered your question.

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's not about Jon White. He has earned the right to have a strong opinion and he was hardly embarrassed today.

The bottom line is that Hold That Bird saved us from enduring a lot of falsehoods about what would have been a dramatically misunderstood result.

:tro:

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

Completely agree, it wasn't inside speed, just inside.

its very rarely speed and not inside, the two are related.

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Didn't this horse come off the rail before the turn?

Also, the winner of the 12th, I believe, had an inside trip as well.

yes he did, no need to look at facts like that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The winner got a 105 Beyer. If a healthy Quality Road and a healthy I Want Revenge had shown up Drugs, would won cashed his exacta?

So we can assume that these both these horses would have
been ahead of the rest of the field by oh, 8 or 9
lengths, running in a quagmire. We knew before the
race these horses had some crossbreeding with
amphibians.

No huge ifs and buts here.
No wild assumptions.
Before they ran this thing, it was clear these
horses where at least 8 lengths better than the
rest.

Gotcha.

People did listen to Orson Wells on the radio also.
So I guess this is a joke.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

he was the trainer at one point in the geldings career.

Thanks Danzig. I did know about the prior Mandella connection. My question is more about the brisnet.com past performance chart in the day or two prior to the draw.

Maybe I'm misinterpreting, but I believe it showed Mandella as the current trainer of Mine That Bird.

Here's the link if it still works:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/si...es/dby4-23.pdf