Gotta love Watchmaker....

[Cunningham Racing]

...it is obvious who he lost his money on at 8-5 in the Champagne :D :D :D

http://www.drf.com/news/article/79671.html

[blackthroatedwind]

This idea that someone who points out a trip that cost a horse a victory in a race somehow infers that the same person also lost money on said horse is ridiculous. Even if the person did lose money on said horse, which I doubt Watch did, it doesn't take away from the validity of the comments. Anyone can watch the replay of the Champagne and verify what was stated...it is obvious his analysis of NoBiz's trip is accurate.

[randallscott35]

This idea that someone who points out a trip that cost a horse a victory in a race somehow infers that the same person also lost money on said horse is ridiculous. Even if the person did lose money on said horse, which I doubt Watch did, it doesn't take away from the validity of the comments. Anyone can watch the replay of the Champagne and verify what was stated...it is obvious his analysis of NoBiz's trip is accurate.

I agree with this and I would add that I don't understand the importance of giving credit to one horse over the other. Scat Daddy ran a great race. Why couldn't No Biz have run an equally great race (his 2nd lifetime start) Joel, why exactly are the two mutually exclusive? They sure as hell shouldn't be.

[Cunningham Racing]

This idea that someone who points out a trip that cost a horse a victory in a race somehow infers that the same person also lost money on said horse is ridiculous. Even if the person did lose money on said horse, which I doubt Watch did, it doesn't take away from the validity of the comments. Anyone can watch the replay of the Champagne and verify what was stated...it is obvious his analysis of NoBiz's trip is accurate.

For a 8-5 favorite to get beat and then an article to be written about him headlined "You can pin a star on this colt's stall" is a tad ridiculous to me....

Apparentally, he was supposed to win by his odds and he didn't....he had no real excuse IMO....hell, Scat Daddy had worse journeys in the Sanford and Hopeful IMO and nobody came out and wrote excuses about his trip....the way I look at it, Nobiz saved a lot of ground, while Scat Daddy raced far wider and moved far wider....and Scat Daddy still flew by him with plenty left in the tank while racing green.....

I smell a wagering-induced article...<sniff, sniff>

[Cajungator26]

My Champagne pick is still running, I think... :eek:

I thought that both Scat Daddy AND Nobiz were running green... I still think that Scat Daddy wins the BC Juvy though.

[ArlJim78]

He just described what happened, I didn't detect at all any bitterness over losing a bet. Make no mistake, No Biz had a real bad time of it as MW pointed out. This horse has really impresssed me. Considering his trip and the race experience that he gave away to the others like Scat Daddy, I think you've got to give him a big look in the juvenile.

[Cunningham Racing]

I agree with this and I would add that I don't understand the importance of giving credit to one horse over the other. Scat Daddy ran a great race. Why couldn't No Biz have run an equally great race (his 2nd lifetime start) Joel, why exactly are the two mutually exclusive? They sure as hell shouldn't be.

I never said Nobiz didn't run a good race...he did...but you never saw Watchmaker write an article about Scat Daddy's trip when he had a HORRID trip in the Hopeful, did he?...NO...

If you have the audasity to write about a loser, they better not have been a false favorite at 8-5 IMO....give the public something not from the Captain Obvious playbook....I see it as making excuses for foolishly taking a short price on a non-deserving favorite.....

[ArlJim78]

For a 8-5 favorite to get beat and then an article to be written about him headlined "You can pin a star on this colt's stall" is a tad ridiculous to me....

Apparentally, he was supposed to win by his odds and he didn't....he had no real excuse IMO..
Its statements like this that really make me laugh.

[Cunningham Racing]

He just described what happened, I didn't detect at all any bitterness over losing a bet. Make no mistake, No Biz had a real bad time of it as MW pointed out. This horse has really impresssed me. Considering his trip and the race experience that he gave away to the others like Scat Daddy, I think you've got to give him a big look in the juvenile.

No doubt he is talented, but Mike cannot say that he was the best horse...that would be asonine....I haven't seen a two-year-old train in the mornings like Scat Daddy does since Afleet Alex....he's no fluke and very much deserves more credit than people give him....

NLS didn't lose that race...Scat Daddy won it

[randallscott35]

I never said Nobiz didn't run a good race...he did...but you never saw Watchmaker write an article about Scat Daddy's trip when he had a HORRID trip in the Hopeful, did he?...NO...

If you have the audasity to write about a loser, they better not have been a false favorite at 8-5 IMO....give the public something not from the Captain Obvious playbook....I see it as making excuses for foolishly taking a short price on a non-deserving favorite.....

I guess my problem is that you act like Scat won this race by 6 under wraps. Simply not the case. I hope he wins the Juvy for you b/c you have a thing for him. I'll leave it at that.....

[ArlJim78]

No doubt he is talented, but Mike cannot say that he was the best horse...that would be asonine....I haven't seen a two-year-old train in the mornings like Scat Daddy does since Afleet Alex....he's no fluke and very much deserves more credit than people give him....

NLS didn't lose that race...Scat Daddy won it
Keep the faith brother!!

Fyi, why can't Mike say he was the better horse despite losing? You yourself have made the case many times that you don't necessarily go by the race record to determine how good a horse is, that you can just watch them and know how good they are even if they do not win.

[Cunningham Racing]

Keep the faith brother!!

Fyi, why can't Mike say he was the better horse despite losing? You yourself have made the case many times that you don't necessarily go by the race record to determine how good a horse is, that you can just watch them and know how good they are even if they do not win.

True, but when a horse by Albert the Great is a false favorite at 8-5 over a horse established as the class of the field by being a graded stakes winner from the best barn in New York, I wouldn't expect a feature article on how great Nobiz is....he failed the public as the chalk...plain and simple...why should he command the repsect he is getting now? It was expected that he should have won the Champagne and he failed....so why pin a star on his stall?

[ArlJim78]

True, but when a horse by Albert the Great is a false favorite at 8-5 over a horse established as the class of the field by being a graded stakes winner from the best barn in New York, I wouldn't expect a feature article on how great Nobiz is....he failed the public as the chalk...plain and simple...why should he command the repsect he is getting now? It was expected that he should have won the Champagne and he failed....so why pin a star on his stall?
Its obvious to most.

BTW: What's wrong with being by Albert the Great? Does that automatically disqualify him from being able to win a GR1?

[blackthroatedwind]

Watch's job is to analyze the races. In doing so the odds are irrelevent. HIS analysis, which apparently corresponds to many others here, was that NoBiz ran the best race. He gave his reasons for this. Now, others can disagree, and that's fine and one of the things many of us find enjoyable about racing, in that there are often different interpretations of the same events. Often there are valid points on both sides. Sometimes someone else will point something out not noticed by another that may lead that other person in the right direction in the future. To deny the rightful legitimacy of this is folly.

[Cunningham Racing]

Since you have ignored my posts in which your inaccuracies were pointed out, I'm curious, why do you keep bringing up the fact that Nobiz is by Albert the Great? What subtle immature shot are you attempting to make there?

Statistics say that the upside is limited....everybody has their theories and this is mine....it isn't an exact science, obviously, and he could be a freak. But you cannot base theories on outliers....

[blackthroatedwind]

Statistics say that the upside is limited....everybody has their theories and this is mine....it isn't an exact science, obviously, and he could be a freak. But you cannot base theories on outliers....

This is all good and fine but it appears then that NoBiz has then already established himself as a freak in this case.

[blackthroatedwind]

Statistics say that the upside is limited....everybody has their theories and this is mine....it isn't an exact science, obviously, and he could be a freak. But you cannot base theories on outliers....

OK, I don't know much about breeding, and you obviously know a ton more than me, but isn't this Albert the Great's second crop? How reliable can statistics be at this point especially concerning the " upside " of his foals?

[ArlJim78]

Aren't we talking about a fairly small number of crops from Albert the Great so far? like two.

[blackthroatedwind]

Aren't we talking about a fairly small number of crops from Albert the Great so far? like two.


I just posted the same thing. I don't know anything about breeding but I too am confused by this.

[ArlJim78]

OK, I don't know much about breeding, and you obviously know a ton more than me, but isn't this Albert the Great's second crop? How reliable can statistics be at this point especially concerning the " upside " of his foals?
I almost wrote word for word the same post, but instead shortened my version.

[ArlJim78]

I just posted the same thing. I don't know anything about breeding but I too am confused by this.
I think at this point I'm supposed to say "Jinx"

[Cunningham Racing]

This is all good and fine but it appears then that NoBiz has then already established himself as a freak in this case.

He has the chance to be better than his sire...for sure....I like the horse..let me make that clear. But, I still think Scat Daddy is better...I just do....they are both very good though...NLS did gain my respect to a degree...I am just mad that Scat Daddy, who I think was the best horse, isn't getting any respect...REMEMBER, HE DID WIN THE RACE....its almost like the media always has an agenda...just my opinion...I've followed Mike for a while and I think I have a feel for his style.....

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm not a result oriented guy, Joel, and objectively I think NoBiz ran the best race Saturday. I've made a lot of money in my life at the racetrack betting on horses that lost races but ran much better than their results would indicate. This, in fact, is the basic job of a horseplayer.

I understand you have liked Scat Daddy for quite a while, as has the barn, and that's great and I can certainly understand how enjoyable it must be for you to see him doing well. However, I would hardly say he isn't getting the respect he deserves simply because someone analyzed the Champagne and felt NoBiz ran the best race. That doesn't take away from Scat Daddy's good performance, it is just once again is one man's opinion of the race.

I'm guessing NoBiz's connections would be extremely excited at the prospect of him being even as good as Albert the Great who was most certainly an excellent racehorse with the career accomplishments to prove it.

[Cunningham Racing]

OK, I don't know much about breeding, and you obviously know a ton more than me, but isn't this Albert the Great's second crop? How reliable can statistics be at this point especially concerning the " upside " of his foals?

It is how I feel about his breeding...not so much about his produce record...again, it is a theory that has worked for me and put me on a lot of real racehorses at an early stage (Bernardini) and taken me off a lot of race horses at an early stage...far more than I can list...you use what works for you...everyone in this game builds convictions and that is one of mine..

Put it this way, I'm a breeder and I wouldn't breed to Albert the Great....does that mean he sucks?..No...just my convictions...

..his yearlings I've seen are actually not all that bad in the flesh, but then again, Unaccounted For's yearlings also looked good in the flesh......

[Rupert Pupkin]

I must be blind because I thought the horse got a great trip. He hugged the rail the entire race, he swung out two-wide at the head of the lane and he got run down fairly easily by a horse who went three-wide all the way around the turn. I think Scat Daddy was much the best.

If every horse I bet got the trip that NoBiz had, I would be very happy. How often is a come-from-behinder able to hug the rail like that and have such a huge gap open up on the rail in the middle of the turn? It doesn't happen very often. That ground saving trip more than made up for the sluggish start that he had. Overall, I think he had a great trip. I think the best horse clearly won.

[Cunningham Racing]

I must be blind because I thought the horse got a great trip. He hugged the rail the entire race, he swung out two-wide at the head of the line and he got run down fairly easily by a horse who went three-wide all the way around the turn. I think Scat Daddy was much the best.

If every horse I bet got the trip that NoBiz had, I would be very happy. How often is a come-from-behinder able to hug the rail like that and have such a huge gap open up on the rail in the middle of the turn? It doesn't happen very often. That ground saving trip more than made up for the sluggish start that he had. Overall, I think he had a great trip. I think the best horse clearly won.

I couldn't agree more....I'm not saying he had a 'perfect' trip, but he ceratinly had as good a trip as the winner IMO, and I think the winner won far easier than the final margin based on the greeness I saw the final sixteenth.....

[Suffolk Shippers]

...it is obvious who he lost his money on at 8-5 in the Champagne :D :D :D

http://www.drf.com/news/article/79671.html

Ladies and gentleman, our winner Mr Joel Cunningham...

This is typical Watchmaker. Runs us up and down about how untouchable his choice is (in this case No Biz), who gets bet down to overwhelming favorite. Then moans that the star may not have been the winner (Scat Daddy). If No Biz had won, Mikey would have been crowning him BC Juvy champ already. Typical Watchmaker, beats his drum so loud and then when the tap goes faint, he changes his tune. But if he's right, we would not have heard the end of it...EVER.

I'll say it again, 5-2 on Scat Daddy was borderline overlay of the year, and was easy pickens if you were paying attention ;)

[Cunningham Racing]

Ladies and gentleman, our winner Mr Joel Cunningham...

This is typical Watchmaker. Runs us up and down about how untouchable his choice is (in this case No Biz), who gets bet down to overwhelming favorite. Then moans that the star may not have been the winner (Scat Daddy). If No Biz had won, Mikey would have been crowning him BC Juvy champ already. Typical Watchmaker, beats his drum so loud and then when the tap goes faint, he changes his tune. But if he's right, we would not have heard the end of it...EVER.

I'll say it again, 5-2 on Scat Daddy was borderline overlay of the year, and was easy pickens if you were paying attention ;)

No, you are the winner, SS.....ding, ding, ding :D

[Rupert Pupkin]

Ladies and gentleman, our winner Mr Joel Cunningham...

This is typical Watchmaker. Runs us up and down about how untouchable his choice is (in this case No Biz), who gets bet down to overwhelming favorite. Then moans that the star may not have been the winner (Scat Daddy). If No Biz had won, Mikey would have been crowning him BC Juvy champ already. Typical Watchmaker, beats his drum so loud and then when the tap goes faint, he changes his tune. But if he's right, we would not have heard the end of it...EVER.

I'll say it again, 5-2 on Scat Daddy was borderline overlay of the year, and was easy pickens if you were paying attention ;)

I agree with you. I would be willing to make a large wager that Watchmaker bet NoBiz.

[blackthroatedwind]

I agree with you. I would be willing to make a large wager that Watchmaker bet NoBiz.

And that would make his analysis of the race null and void?

[Cunningham Racing]

So getting shut off at the start and losing a few lengths is a "great trip".

His bad break is overrated. IMO...go back and watch it...Scat had a worse break in his debut and in the Sanford IMO....

[ateamstupid]

For a 8-5 favorite to get beat and then an article to be written about him headlined "You can pin a star on this colt's stall" is a tad ridiculous to me....

Apparentally, he was supposed to win by his odds and he didn't....he had no real excuse IMO....hell, Scat Daddy had worse journeys in the Sanford and Hopeful IMO and nobody came out and wrote excuses about his trip....the way I look at it, Nobiz saved a lot of ground, while Scat Daddy raced far wider and moved far wider....and Scat Daddy still flew by him with plenty left in the tank while racing green.....

I smell a wagering-induced article...<sniff, sniff>

You are so unbelievably biased, it's laughable. What the hell difference does it make if the public overbet him as to whether this horse is a star or not? So stars never get beaten at short odds? He was overbet. You already stated this. He shouldn't have been 8/5. What the **** does that have to do with the horse's talent?

You know what's a "tad ridiculous" to ME? The fact that your horse is, according to you, still "very green" in his fourth start, three weeks from his biggest race of the year, and you interpret that as a positive sign. THAT'S ridiculous.

f every horse I bet got the trip that NoBiz had, I would be very happy. How often is a come-from-behinder able to hug the rail like that and have such a huge gap open up on the rail in the middle of the turn? It doesn't happen very often. That ground saving trip more than made up for the sluggish start that he had. Overall, I think he had a great trip. I think the best horse clearly won.

Oh yes, he's a "come-from-behinder," for sure. This characterization is based on what, exactly? He broke his maiden from within two lengths of the lead BECAUSE TAGG TOLD CORNELIO NOT TO GO TO THE LEAD, then he gets shut off at the break of this race and starts out in ninth, and now he's a "come-from-behinder." Right.

[Cunningham Racing]

And that would make his analysis of the race null and void?

It would at least provide a serious conflict of interest....I read the article and seriously disagreed with much of what he thinks he saw....Your perception gets a little derailed when you are nervously holding a losing ticket on a false favorite you took a ridiculous 8-5 on off of a win over Bullara - a Pletcher colt who I watched at CD this summer and will likely be in for maiden claiming $50K very shortly....

[Rupert Pupkin]

So getting shut off at the start and losing a few lengths is a "great trip".

As I said, his ground-saving trip more than made up for his losing a couple of lengths at the start.

It would be one thing if he broke slow and was flying late but couldn't catch the winner. But that's not what happened. He had the lead and got run down. I don't see any way that he was the best horse. If he and SD reversed trips, SD still wins the race easily. SD probably wins the race even easier if they reverse trips.

[ArlJim78]

So getting shut off at the start and losing a few lengths is a "great trip".
The start was real bad, but it wasn't the only problem. He got back into the action a little too quicky and had to be checked for some time for lack of room. being down on the inside I don't think was the best position for this big colt.

[Cunningham Racing]

Gee, wonder who you bet. I'll be sure to pay more attention for those 5-2 overlays. Take a look at my link to Mr. Cunningham's post race analysis of the Hopeful and tell me there aren't striking similarities there.

No, the difference is that I MADE money on Circular Quay winning because he was coupled with Scat Daddy that day.....CLEARLY different motive than Watchmaker's story and situation...

[blackthroatedwind]

It would at least provide a serious conflict of interest....I read the article and seriously disagreed with much of what he thinks he saw....Your perception gets a little derailed when you are nervously holding a losing ticket on a false favorite you took a ridiculous 8-5 on off of a win over Bullara - a Pletcher colt who I watched at CD this summer and will likely be in for maiden claiming $50K very shortly....


By the same token then everything you are saying about Scat Daddy represents a serious conflict of interest.

[Cunningham Racing]

As I said, his ground-saving trip more than made up for his losing a couple of lengths at the start.

It would be one thing if he broke slow and was flying late but couldn't catch the winner. But that's not what happened. He had the lead and got run down. I don't see any way that he was the best horse. If he and SD reversed trips, SD still wins the race easily. SD probably wins the race even easier if they reverse trips.

Agreed....................

[Rupert Pupkin]

You are so unbelievably biased, it's laughable. What the hell difference does it make if the public overbet him as to whether this horse is a star or not? So stars never get beaten at short odds? He was overbet. You already stated this. He shouldn't have been 8/5. What the **** does that have to do with the horse's talent?

You know what's a "tad ridiculous" to ME? The fact that your horse is, according to you, still "very green" in his fourth start, three weeks from his biggest race of the year, and you interpret that as a positive sign. THAT'S ridiculous.



Oh yes, he's a "come-from-behinder," for sure. This characterization is based on what, exactly? He broke his maiden from within two lengths of the lead BECAUSE TAGG TOLD CORNELIO NOT TO GO TO THE LEAD, then he gets shut off at the break of this race and starts out in ninth, and now he's a "come-from-behinder." Right.

He is a come-from-behinder. He doesn't have sprint speed. That's why he made his debut in a one mile race. This horse is clearly a router. Running in a one-turn race against horses with sprint-speed, I would certainly call him a come-from-behinder. He was running against horses with :44 and change speed. I don't think they wanted to be up there going head and head with the Lukas horse any way.

[Suffolk Shippers]

You are so unbelievably biased, it's laughable. What the hell difference does it make if the public overbet him as to whether this horse is a star or not? So stars never get beaten at short odds? He was overbet. You already stated this. He shouldn't have been 8/5. What the **** does that have to do with the horse's talent?

Plenty actually. People bet him down to that level based on perceived "talent" up to and not including his pedigree, trainer, works, races, who he raced, etc. Based on that, people set this talent level of this horse at 8-5 over a horse who has more talent overall in Scat Daddy.

No Biz will probably be a decent horse, I dont think many people dispute that notion. Stars do get beaten at 8-5. Stars win at 5-2 as well. Fact of the matter is, we are dealing with babies and as soon as they are "stars" they are long forgotten sometimes. Not saying this will happen to either of them, but who the hell knows?

Also, the wagering level settled on by the public DOES represent the star quality of a horse. In fact, it makes a great point. We are WAY too quick to appoint stardom on these animals. For weeks now, since No Biz won his maiden, he has been the next star...well as is the situation many teams, the hype doesnt match up, at least right now. Who knows, maybe it will (personally, I say no). Looking at the facts, No Biz beat a horse from Pletcher's barn, maybe D Wayne, not 100% sure (and its too late to look up) who will probably be toiling in the fall mid level claimers at Churchill. That doesnt present star to me.

But, it does to some...and hell, I hope it does more often, and then my horse sits at 5-2 and is the clear class of the race. *Cash register sound*

Good arguments though.

[philcski]

It would at least provide a serious conflict of interest....I read the article and seriously disagreed with much of what he thinks he saw....Your perception gets a little derailed when you are nervously holding a losing ticket on a false favorite you took a ridiculous 8-5 on off of a win over Bullara - a Pletcher colt who I watched at CD this summer and will likely be in for maiden claiming $50K very shortly....

How is 5/2 ever a good price in a two year old race? Was Awesome Ashley a good bet at 5/2 in the Frizette?

These are TWO YEAR OLDS... anything can happen, and it usually does. You better believe 5/2 on Scat Daddy will be a tremendous UNDERLAY in the BC Juvy (and I actually think he's a decent horse.)

Those that bet down Nobiz to 8/5 were probably taking the worst of it, however considering he was 10 lengths faster than the rest of the field in his last start and the 2nd start of a horse's career is nearly always his/her biggest improvement, I can understand the favoritism. He had to run back to his last race to win, which is a reasonable assertation for an 8/5 favorite... he regressed about 3 lengths (probably the amount he lost at the start). If the public assessed his probability of winning properly, he was a 40% chance to win. Seems reasonable to me on the limited data available with this group. Scat Daddy was 5/2 not because he wasn't a quality runner but because he was uproven at a mile and didn't look to care for more distance in the Hopeful. If he was 8/5 instead of 5/2, we would be calling HIM an underlay.

End result, anyone who had the other 3 in the NTRA pick 4 and didn't use both in this race in equal amounts is an idiot (namely, me.)

[ateamstupid]

He is a come-from-behinder. He doesn't have sprint speed. That's why he made his debut in a one mile race. This horse is clearly a router. Running in a one-turn race against horses with sprint-speed, I would certainly call him a come-from-behinder. He was running against horses with :44 and change speed. I don't think they wanted to be up there going head and head with the Lukas horse any way.

The horse ran a :45 3/5 half in his debut, and because he was at the back of the pack early (DUE TO THE BAD START) in The Champagne, you think he's a come-from-behinder.

I guess the horses with sprint speed stayed in the barn, because fractions of :24 and :47 4/5 certainly aren't fractions I see in many sprint races.

And just because they didn't want him going eye-to-eye with Pegasus Wind means he's a come-from-behinder? I guess you'd have to define come-from-behinder for me then, because I say he's a stalker who likes to be 2-3 lengths off the lead. That could be wrong, but so far, there's more evidence in my favor than in yours.

[Cunningham Racing]

By the same token then everything you are saying about Scat Daddy represents a serious conflict of interest.

I'm not the one writing a feature story behind one of the biggest industry trades (DRF) either.....I ALWAYS try to present the facts in my articles, and if I have an opinion, I state it as an opinion and not like its the gospel and we have to eat it like Mike does....

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm not the one writing a feature story behind one of the biggest industry trades (DRF) either.....I ALWAYS try to present the facts in my articles, and if I have an opinion, I state it as an opinion and not like its the gospel and we have to eat it like Mike does....

Mike's job is to write opinion pieces, for DRF, and that is exactly what he did. He also presented the facts as he saw them...also his job.

[ateamstupid]

Plenty actually. People bet him down to that level based on perceived "talent" up to and not including his pedigree, trainer, works, races, who he raced, etc. Based on that, people set this talent level of this horse at 8-5 over a horse who has more talent overall in Scat Daddy.

I asked "what do the odds have to do with his talent?"

I didn't ask "what do the odds have to do with his perceived talent or what the public thinks his talent level is?"

The public doesn't decide how fast a horse is. The public decides how fast they think a horse is. Therefore, a horse's odds have NOTHING to do with how fast that horse actually is.

[Rupert Pupkin]

So he won easily? This is getting to be funny. This is when I have to throw in the towel. It's been fun, and extremely informative. Thanks as always.

He won by a length. I think that's a relatively easy win.

I just watched the race one more time. I think that Nobiz had a little more of an excuse than I originally thought, especially consdiering that this was only his second career start. For a horse with no experience, it was a pretty eventful trip. I wouldn't say that he should have necessarily won, but I will say that he probaly learned from the experience and should move forward.

[Rupert Pupkin]

The horse ran a :45 3/5 half in his debut, and because he was at the back of the pack early (DUE TO THE BAD START) in The Champagne, you think he's a come-from-behinder.

I guess the horses with sprint speed stayed in the barn, because fractions of :24 and :47 4/5 certainly aren't fractions I see in many sprint races.

And just because they didn't want him going eye-to-eye with Pegasus Wind means he's a come-from-behinder? I guess you'd have to define come-from-behinder for me then, because I say he's a stalker who likes to be 2-3 lengths off the lead. That could be wrong, but so far, there's more evidence in my favor than in yours.

I didn't mean that he wants to come from 10 back. I would agree with you that he is a stalker. I just meant that I wouldn't call him a speed horse, especially in a race where there are horses with sprint speed.

On paper, it looked like there was alot of speed in the race and I would have figured that NoBiz would be about 4-6 lengths behind. As slow as the fractions ended up being run, he could have been right there early.

[blackthroatedwind]

I appreciate your candor in watching the race and being forthright in suggesting that NoBiz had a tougher trip than you originally thought. This is exactly what intelligent disection of a race can do for all of us, certainly myself included, as because of Watch's comments, and thus this thread, you were able to see the race at least a little better. I'm glad someone benefited from that obviously biased article:D .

[Rupert Pupkin]

This is getting good. Better tell Lukas that instead of running Pegasus Wind in the Juvenile like he had planned, rightly so, because he was only beat a length or so by Super Scat who wins races with ease, and makes people rich, that instead he should be in mid level claimers. I'll make this "bold prediction" ala Mr Cunningham. Pegasus Wind, will win a stakes race this year.

I don't think Pegasus Wind will win a stakes race this year. His next start will be in the BC Juvenille. He's not going to win that race. He will probably be right up on the pace in that race. You can't expect that he will come out of a tough race like that and then run a great race in his next start. He may need a rest after the BC Juvenille. He could come back and win a stakes race this year but I think the odds are against it.

[Rupert Pupkin]

I appreciate your candor in watching the race and being forthright in suggesting that NoBiz had a tougher trip than you originally thought. This is exactly what intelligent disection of a race can do for all of us, certainly myself included, as because of Watch's comments, and thus this thread, you were able to see the race at least a little better. I'm glad someone benefited from that obviously biased article:D .

Sometimes watching a replay just once is not enough.

On the workout videos at the 2 year old sales, I will often times watch the same 1/8th of a mile workout 10 times. Sometimes you need to watch several times to really get a good feel. Sometimes I feel like I'm "in the zone" and seeing things really clearly. Other times, I'm not seeing things as clearly and I have to keep re-winding the videos and watching them over and over again.

[blackthroatedwind]

Sometimes watching a replay just once is not enough.

On the workout videos at the 2 year old sales, I will often times watch the same 1/8th of a mile workout 10 times. Sometimes you need to watch several times to really get a good feel. Sometimes I feel like I'm "in the zone" and seeing things really clearly. Other times, I'm not seeing things as clearly and I have to keep re-winding the videos and watching them over and over again.


No doubt. I watch races and replays over and over again, not as much as I did when I played full time, but even now I certainly watch over 2000 different replays annually, often more than once, in addition to watching all the races in NY when they are run ( plus other tracks at different times of the year ).

IMO there is no better way to learn about racing than watching as many races as possible, from both the pan and head-on angle.

[ArlJim78]

If I'm really trying to understand a race, or a particular horses effort/trip in a race, I may watch it over and over as many as 10 times. There are too many things happening all at once making it impossible to take it all in in one or two viewings. Sometimes I'll start with one opinion but after repeated viewings change my mind completely.

[blackthroatedwind]

To me the most interesting thing you learn from repeatedly watching races is how often what you may once have thought was a bad trip proves over time ( after future results come in ) to not be necessarily a bad trip. Not to say that a bad trip will always relate to a vastly improved effort next time as I'm not even talking specifically. I used to overrate wide trips while believing saving ground was always beneficial. Obviously those precepts proved untrue over time. I am constantly amazed by the number of horses I see that almost appear to be spinning their wheels while down inside and I can't find any other reason why such horses didn't run their expected races only to see these same horses run much better when getting outside trips in their subsequent starts. Some horses hate being inside, while others always want to be inside, and for those that don't like it I guess it's some combination of intimidation and perhaps getting dirt kicked in their faces ( the two obviously aren't mutually exclusive ).

It's really a never ending learning experience, and also quite often horse specific, but to me it is the most fascinating and informative part of the game.

[oracle80]

This may be the biggest waste of space ever put on this board. We needed 77 posts to sum up a simple race?
Allow me to sum it up easily if you would.

1) Nobiz like Showbiz had a trip that all in all wasn't awful, wasn't great, was right in between. He was green in the lane, and in making only his 2nd start while diving into stakes company, would certainly be the one with the most projected upside. He was indeed ridiculously overbet at 8-5, but the horses' odds or any bets anyone made do not change the fact that his trip was his trip and the facts are the facts.
2) Scat Daddy was indeed an overlay at 5-2 for several reasons, first and foremost being his experience and performance in stakes races up to that point, and the fact that as a stallion prospect with a pedigree that suggests two turns may be a challenge, the barn definitely had aimed at that one turn mile as the best possible chance to get that grade one on the resume and the horse was trained for the Champagne as if it were the main goal.

In a nutshell? It's not Nobiz's fault that he was overbet, and I find it hard to understand why it matters what his price was in dissecting a race. A horses' odds have NOTHING TO DO WITH HIS TRIP OR PERFORMANCE AND SHOULD NEVER,EVER, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BE FACTORED INTO A TRIP OR RACE ANALYSIS!!!!
I can't possibly stress that enough. Every time I hear some mentally challenged person explaining a trip or performance to me and mentioning the odds the horse went off at, I immediately assume that their parents were eating lead paint chips when they were conceived.
Odds and horses performance are not related, not at all. In order to properly analyze a race, the horses odds must not be considered.
Nobiz ran a great race for a horse who had a little trouble at the break and was green in the stretch in making only his 2nd start and first in stakes company. He'd be the one I'd say has the most possible upside.

[ateamstupid]

This may be the biggest waste of space ever put on this board. We needed 77 posts to sum up a simple race?
Allow me to sum it up easily if you would.

1) Nobiz like Showbiz had a trip that all in all wasn't awful, wasn't great, was right in between. He was green in the lane, and in making only his 2nd start while diving into stakes company, would certainly be the one with the most projected upside. He was indeed ridiculously overbet at 8-5, but the horses' odds or any bets anyone made do not change the fact that his trip was his trip and the facts are the facts.
2) Scat Daddy was indeed an overlay at 5-2 for several reasons, first and foremost being his experience and performance in stakes races up to that point, and the fact that as a stallion prospect with a pedigree that suggests two turns may be a challenge, the barn definitely had aimed at that one turn mile as the best possible chance to get that grade one on the resume and the horse was trained for the Champagne as if it were the main goal.

In a nutshell? It's not Nobiz's fault that he was overbet, and I find it hard to understand why it matters what his price was in dissecting a race. A horses' odds have NOTHING TO DO WITH HIS TRIP OR PERFORMANCE AND SHOULD NEVER,EVER, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BE FACTORED INTO A TRIP OR RACE ANALYSIS!!!!
I can't possibly stress that enough. Every time I hear some mentally challenged person explaining a trip or performance to me and mentioning the odds the horse went off at, I immediately assume that their parents were eating lead paint chips when they were conceived.
Odds and horses performance are not related, not at all. In order to properly analyze a race, the horses odds must not be considered.
Nobiz ran a great race for a horse who had a little trouble at the break and was green in the stretch in making only his 2nd start and first in stakes company. He'd be the one I'd say has the most possible upside.

Spot ****ing on, Mike. Nice job.

[oracle80]

Spot ****ing on, Mike. Nice job.
Thanks Joey but really I don't see how anyone could arrive at any conclusion but that one.
I think its pretty obvious when a green horse making his 2nd start and 1st time in a stakes gets beat only one length by a horse who is making his 4th start and 3rd start in a stakes race, that the one whose green and 2nd is gonna be the one who gets the ink about having more upside.

When I say odds shouldn't be considered in analyzing a race, I mean AFTER the race when dissecting it. I ,like many here, was stunned to see Nobiz at 8-5 and stunned to see that Scat wasn't favored. But that doesn't mean squat after its over and you pick the race apart.
Nothing is more hysterical(actually its sad) than listening to people make excuse after excuse for a favorite or well regarded horse after a race. Its as if they think that only faves can get bad trips and there's the old "well he only won by a neck but it was so easy and measured, blah blah blah". Thats garbage 99% of the time. How come noone ever says a 12-1 shot won by an easy measured neck? And how come when a favorite has some traffic everyone is always screaming that so and so should have won, but when you point out a tough trip that a longshot had, people respond with "doesn't matter, he wasn't gonna win anyway"? They are allowing their ideas before a race to interfere with the perception of reality
The first time you watch a race you are always going to tend to focus on the horses you have bet, thats normal. But when you go back to watch the replay(or replays) you really have to forget who you bet, and your preconceived notions about horses. You just have to watch the race and make notations about what you perceive happened.
That being said, Nobiz like Showbiz may have been one of the most overbet horses I ever saw in my life in terms of what I perceived to be value before the race. I thought his debut was aided by sitting behind a speed duel of 3 very subpar horses in blistering fractions and that his ten length win was more a product of a perfect trip where the others were stopping in the lane moreso than he was running away. So When he was 8-5 I didn't even cosider using him in my DD's. I pressed Scat Daddy and saved with Pegasus and Imanumbersguy.
But the reality of what I saw is that I misjudged his debut and didn't give Nobiz enough credit. Nobiz had that trouble at the gate(not horrible trouble) and when he made the lead he acted green tossing his head about like he was waiting on horses and running in spots. To do that in his 2nd start in that company I think hes the horse I would wanna bet next time out against this same group and can't see how anyone else could see it any other way.

[SentToStud]

Thanks Joey but really I don't see how anyone could arrive at any conclusion but that one.
I think its pretty obvious when a green horse making his 2nd start and 1st time in a stakes gets beat only one length by a horse who is making his 4th start and 3rd start in a stakes race, that the one whose green and 2nd is gonna be the one who gets the ink about having more upside.

When I say odds shouldn't be considered in analyzing a race, I mean AFTER the race when dissecting it. I ,like many here, was stunned to see Nobiz at 8-5 and stunned to see that Scat wasn't favored. But that doesn't mean squat after its over and you pick the race apart.
Nothing is more hysterical(actually its sad) than listening to people make excuse after excuse for a favorite or well regarded horse after a race. Its as if they think that only faves can get bad trips and there's the old "well he only won by a neck but it was so easy and measured, blah blah blah". Thats garbage 99% of the time. How come noone ever says a 12-1 shot won by an easy measured neck? And how come when a favorite has some traffic everyone is always screaming that so and so should have won, but when you point out a tough trip that a longshot had, people respond with "doesn't matter, he wasn't gonna win anyway"? They are allowing their ideas before a race to interfere with the perception of reality
The first time you watch a race you are always going to tend to focus on the horses you have bet, thats normal. But when you go back to watch the replay(or replays) you really have to forget who you bet, and your preconceived notions about horses. You just have to watch the race and make notations about what you perceive happened.
That being said, Nobiz like Showbiz may have been one of the most overbet horses I ever saw in my life in terms of what I perceived to be value before the race. I thought his debut was aided by sitting behind a speed duel of 3 very subpar horses in blistering fractions and that his ten length win was more a product of a perfect trip where the others were stopping in the lane moreso than he was running away. So When he was 8-5 I didn't even cosider using him in my DD's. I pressed Scat Daddy and saved with Pegasus and Imanumbersguy.
But the reality of what I saw is that I misjudged his debut and didn't give Nobiz enough credit. Nobiz had that trouble at the gate(not horrible trouble) and when he made the lead he acted green tossing his head about like he was waiting on horses and running in spots. To do that in his 2nd start in that company I think hes the horse I would wanna bet next time out against this same group and can't see how anyone else could see it any other way.

What's worse than over-excusing a horse's trip as the cause of a lost wager is failing to note when you have a winner that benefitted from other horses' poor racing luck or unexpected race flow. I long ago learned not to think every winner I've cashed was the best horse in the race. We all benefit as well as suffer from racing luck.

[Linny]

I saw the race differently from everyone I guess. While I was impressed with NoBiz' move into contention I really disliked the way he leaned into Pegasus Wind when they turned for home. He was hugging PW all the way down the lane. The photo that accompanies Mike W's article (front page of the Wed DRF) shows NoBiz being hauled off of the inside horse as Scat Daddy runs by.

It's the difference of opinion that makes the betting possible and I hope alot of folks absorb Watch's article and march to the windows to bet NoBiz next month. I think he's too green to win the BCJ. That said, I think he has a ton of natural ability and if he develops properly he should be a major stakes horse.

Also, PW held on well and could be a contender in some of the lesser stakes at the end of the year.

[oracle80]

What's worse than over-excusing a horse's trip as the cause of a lost wager is failing to note when you have a winner that benefitted from other horses' poor racing luck or unexpected race flow. I long ago learned not to think every winner I've cashed was the best horse in the race. We all benefit as well as suffer from racing luck.

Absolutely no question Stud. I can name a thousand bets I won because some other horse got a bad ride or a bad trip.
Anybody see Quickfire get beat by Society Hostess a couple of Saturdays ago at belmont? I singled Hostess and she won by a head but Quickfire got cut off and blocked at least 4 times in the race and was obviously much, much the best. I was obviously lucky to cash on the wrong horse.

[oracle80]

I saw the race differently from everyone I guess. While I was impressed with NoBiz' move into contention I really disliked the way he leaned into Pegasus Wind when they turned for home. He was hugging PW all the way down the lane. The photo that accompanies Mike W's article (front page of the Wed DRF) shows NoBiz being hauled off of the inside horse as Scat Daddy runs by.

It's the difference of opinion that makes the betting possible and I hope alot of folks absorb Watch's article and march to the windows to bet NoBiz next month. I think he's too green to win the BCJ. That said, I think he has a ton of natural ability and if he develops properly he should be a major stakes horse.

Also, PW held on well and could be a contender in some of the lesser stakes at the end of the year.


Linny horses aren't machines and they sometimes take a few starts to learn their lessons.
What Nobiz did would only be considered neagtive by me if he does that again and again like Corinthian wound up doing.
Many a very good horse does what Nobiz did in his early races while learning his or her lessons.
He got next to no schooling in his debut as he shot to thelead after 3 duelers committed suicide on the front end. He cantered down the lane and didn't learn any lessons.
Now that they know he may be prone to waiting or lugging in, they will most likely change bits or maybe put cheater blinkers on him if he does it again.
In addition to that, a good trainer like Tagg now knows what to work on in the mornings with him and will probably make sure he works in behind a set of horses or alongside another one in company.
It was only his 2nd start, and its just too early to declare him a mental patient.

[Seattleallstar]

well tagg himself called his horse a big dummy

[oracle80]

well tagg himself called his horse a big dummy
Yes he did, the horse is obviously still green. But I doubt he was referring to him in that manner as a very stupid horse, just one who hasn't figured things out yet in terms of racing.
You can't simulate all racing conditions in the morning. Most babies are works in progress.

[Seattleallstar]

Yes he did, the horse is obviously still green. But I doubt he was referring to him in that manner as a very stupid horse, just one who hasn't figured things out yet in terms of racing.
You can't simulate all racing conditions in the morning. Most babies are works in progress.


just like me

[oracle80]

just like me
You are 25 years old, you have no excuses!!!!

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

That's funny. I call my horses big dummies all of the time...

[Revolution]

well tagg himself called his horse a big dummy

He is really big. I don't know how dumb he is, but he is huge. He makes Showing Up look really tiny.

[oracle80]

He is really big. I don't know how dumb he is, but he is huge. He makes Showing Up look really tiny.
Those kind are usually a real challenge to keep sound(point Given, Rock Hard Ten, etc). I hope Tagg can keep him sound as he looks like a real good horse.

[Seattleallstar]

You are 25 years old, you have no excuses!!!!


i never got any breaks in life

[oracle80]

i never got any breaks in life
Yeah, right. You avoided work from ages 16-25 by sponging off relatives.
You still live at home and only pay small bills, and thats only in the last few months.
You are completely healthy and always have been other than the situation caused by your own overindulgence.
You had your college tuition paid for entirely by your folks.
I'm tired of beating you up in private, nothing I say to you seems to sink in. Maybe hearing it from others will get through to you.
I know folks who have had very few breaks in life, and folks who have to had to persevere despite hardships and tragedy. You don't fall into either category. Grow up, and act like a man.

[SentToStud]

i never got any breaks in life

When you get a chance, take this break from your every day routine which is causing you problems.

Go spend a morning in the waiting room at a Pediatric Cancer Treatment Center.

Let us know what you think.

[repent]

lol
this is great.

its like the speech I give my kid brother on a weekly basis.

Repent

[Seattleallstar]

lol
this is great.

its like the speech I give my kid brother on a weekly basis.

Repent


shut up..lol

[repent]

When you get a chance, take this break from your every day routine which is causing you problems.

Go spend a morning in the waiting room at a Pediatric Cancer Treatment Center.

Let us know what you think.

i saw an episode of House about a kid with cancer.
House brought up a great point.
they cant all be brave and good people.
some of the cancer kids have to be whiney little brats.
If I am going to take a morning off of work, Id rather spend my morning at the track.


Repent

[repent]

shut up..lol

haha

grow up, be a man.
i think I remember Roy saying that Aaron in Primal Fear.

Repent

[Linny]

Linny horses aren't machines and they sometimes take a few starts to learn their lessons.
What Nobiz did would only be considered neagtive by me if he does that again and again like Corinthian wound up doing.
Many a very good horse does what Nobiz did in his early races while learning his or her lessons.
He got next to no schooling in his debut as he shot to thelead after 3 duelers committed suicide on the front end. He cantered down the lane and didn't learn any lessons.
Now that they know he may be prone to waiting or lugging in, they will most likely change bits or maybe put cheater blinkers on him if he does it again.
In addition to that, a good trainer like Tagg now knows what to work on in the mornings with him and will probably make sure he works in behind a set of horses or alongside another one in company.
It was only his 2nd start, and its just too early to declare him a mental patient.

I ride horses and have trained babies, I know they take alot of time. I certainly don't think NoBiz is a mental patient, just a bit short on the seasoning needed to win the BCJ. You are right about his debut, it was (in a way) too good for his own good. I'm sure Tagg will school him well and work on lead changes too. IMO, he was fatiguing from his early efforts to get into the race and struggled with the lead change. Tagg has said that he's a big and goofy colt.
I like him alot and if I had to select a Ky Derby contender from the babies I've seen, he'd be "one of the ones." I just question whether he'll be ready to turn the tables on Scat Daddy and beat horses like Great Hunter and Circular Quay in 3 weeks.

[oracle80]

I ride horses and have trained babies, I know they take alot of time. I certainly don't think NoBiz is a mental patient, just a bit short on the seasoning needed to win the BCJ. You are right about his debut, it was (in a way) too good for his own good. I'm sure Tagg will school him well and work on lead changes too. IMO, he was fatiguing from his early efforts to get into the race and struggled with the lead change. Tagg has said that he's a big and goofy colt.
I like him alot and if I had to select a Ky Derby contender from the babies I've seen, he'd be "one of the ones." I just question whether he'll be ready to turn the tables on Scat Daddy and beat horses like Great Hunter and Circular Quay in 3 weeks.
Oh I agree with you there!!!
If he were mine he'd be training for the Remsen Stakes on Thanksgiving weekend at Aqueduct.
Rushing him back on three weeks rest and shipping to Ky doesn't seem like the prudent move. Tagg is a really rational and good horseman, I think when it all boils down he will pass the BC. I think thats too much too soon.
The Remsen is a mile and an eigth grade two and 6 weeks rest between the Champagne and Remsen. Lots of time for him to recover off his last race, and learn to switch leads better and mature.
I hope thats what he does.

[SentToStud]

i saw an episode of House about a kid with cancer.
House brought up a great point.
they cant all be brave and good people.
some of the cancer kids have to be whiney little brats.
If I am going to take a morning off of work, Id rather spend my morning at the track.


Repent

I agree they're not all good and brave and they're whiney. They're also scared and so is this guy Seattle Jerry.

The difference is these kids are scared they're going to die before they reach age 10. Seattle Jerry is scared he is going to die before he inherits his parents wealth.

I suppose Seattle Jerry can learn some things from watching episodic television. But it ain't quite the same as having your gaze met by a smiling, bald eight year old in a wheelchair.

[repent]

I agree they're not all good and brave and they're whiney. They're also scared and so is this guy Seattle Jerry.

The difference is these kids are scared they're going to die before they reach age 10. Seattle Jerry is scared he is going to die before he inherits his parents wealth.

I suppose Seattle Jerry can learn some things from watching episodic television. But it ain't quite the same as having your gaze met by a smiling, bald eight year old in a wheelchair.


lol,
you guys are too hard on seattle.

hes not icing down the steps hoping for his parents to meet an unfortunate end.

from what I can tell, he has a job and is somewhat self sufficient.
personally, i could not live with my parents(how are you supposed to bring a girl home or run on your treadmill at 3AM?)

but I suppose it would be nice to not pay rent or mortgage.


Repent

[SentToStud]

lol,
you guys are too hard on seattle.

hes not icing down the steps hoping for his parents to meet an unfortunate end.

from what I can tell, he has a job and is somewhat self sufficient.
personally, i could not live with my parents(how are you supposed to bring a girl home or run on your treadmill at 3AM?)

but I suppose it would be nice to not pay rent or mortgage.


Repent

lol.
Well, at least he should put down the case of Twinkies and step away from the refrigerator.

[oracle80]

lol,
you guys are too hard on seattle.

hes not icing down the steps hoping for his parents to meet an unfortunate end.

from what I can tell, he has a job and is somewhat self sufficient.
personally, i could not live with my parents(how are you supposed to bring a girl home or run on your treadmill at 3AM?)

but I suppose it would be nice to not pay rent or mortgage.


Repent

Repent,
Now how in the world can you expect the guy to drop a grand on a 3-5 shot each weekend and pay rentor a mortgage? I mean good Lord man, you have to have your priorities straight!!!!

[Seattleallstar]

I agree they're not all good and brave and they're whiney. They're also scared and so is this guy Seattle Jerry.

The difference is these kids are scared they're going to die before they reach age 10. Seattle Jerry is scared he is going to die before he inherits his parents wealth.

I suppose Seattle Jerry can learn some things from watching episodic television. But it ain't quite the same as having your gaze met by a smiling, bald eight year old in a wheelchair.


no wealth, I think theres a big misconception about me out there. I was only joking by the way, I have no reason to complain about anything or to blame anyone about how things are.

[2MinsToPost]

I will share with Jerry later tonight a detailed look at my life not so long ago via pm. I'll talk in detail about living in my car, blowing checks at the track, etc etc.. Maybe it will help.

[Seattleallstar]

lol,
you guys are too hard on seattle.

hes not icing down the steps hoping for his parents to meet an unfortunate end.

from what I can tell, he has a job and is somewhat self sufficient.
personally, i could not live with my parents(how are you supposed to bring a girl home or run on your treadmill at 3AM?)

but I suppose it would be nice to not pay rent or mortgage.


Repent


yes im doing fine, I have a great job finally with Microsoft in their Bellevue campus. Much better working for the city

[Seattleallstar]

lol,
you guys are too hard on seattle.

hes not icing down the steps hoping for his parents to meet an unfortunate end.

from what I can tell, he has a job and is somewhat self sufficient.
personally, i could not live with my parents(how are you supposed to bring a girl home or run on your treadmill at 3AM?)

but I suppose it would be nice to not pay rent or mortgage.


Repent


yes im doing fine, I have a great job finally with Microsoft in their Bellevue campus. Much better than working for the city

[oracle80]

no wealth, I think theres a big misconception about me out there. I was only joking by the way, I have no reason to complain about anything or to blame anyone about how things are.

Can you imagine the wealth they would have if they had taken the money they've given you in the last ten years for pizzas and exacta boxes and invested it real estate instead?

[repent]

lol.
Well, at least he should put down the case of Twinkies and step away from the refrigerator.


lol,
well I really dont know or care about the physique of Seattle.
im 5"10 and 140 lbs.
some may think Im too thin.
but I can run all day and Im cool with my body.
thats all that matters.
Coach Bob Knight has put on weight over the years and I respect him more as a person than just about anyone on this planet.

unless its a chic that Im going to do, i dont care how heavy a person is.


Repent

[oracle80]

lol,
well I really dont know or care about the physique of Seattle.
im 5"10 and 140 lbs.
some may think Im too thin.
but I can run all day and Im cool with my body.
thats all that matters.
Coach Bob Knight has put on weight over the years and I respect him more as a person than just about anyone on this planet.

unless its a chic that Im going to do, i dont care how heavy a person is.


Repent

Pent, at the college I went to we had a motto, big girls need lovin too.

[repent]

Can you imagine the wealth they would have if they had taken the money they've given you in the last ten years for pizzas and exacta boxes and invested it real estate instead?


lol,
I said almost the exact same thing to my mother the other day about all the money she paid on child shrinks for me when I was a kid.
I promise you guys,
I was in the damn psychiatrist's office every week of my life from the ages of 8-15(when they finally gave up).

she should have invested or at least put the money into a future youbet account for me.lol


Repent

[repent]

Pent, at the college I went to we had a motto, big girls need lovin too.


lol,
thats funny.

its just a thing with me.
cant be with someone heavier than me.
seems unnatural or something.
im weird though.


Repent

[Cajungator26]

Pent, at the college I went to we had a motto, big girls need lovin too.

*Raises hand*

How bout bootylicious women? LMFAO! :D

[repent]

lol,
talk to you guys later.
take it easy on Seattle.
one of the nicest guys you will run across online.


Repent

[Sightseek]

One of the racing publications has written that No Biz will pass on the Juvie and go to the Remsen.

[oracle80]

lol,
thats funny.

its just a thing with me.
cant be with someone heavier than me.
seems unnatural or something.
im weird though.


Repent
Guy in my fraternity, "Brother Raj" was in the US on a college visa. he didn't wanna go home. So he kept adding majors and minors in order to keep going to school.
Funniest guy you ever met in your life, Indian dude who drank hard and boasted of having been with more "tons" of women than anyone in the frat. I asked him one night how big the biggest one was, and he responded with a big grin in that accent " 300 easily". LOL!!!!!!!!!!!! He probably weighed 130 soaking wet.

[oracle80]

One of the racing publications has written that No Biz will pass on the Juvie and go to the Remsen.
Very sharp minds tend to think alike!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SentToStud]

Guy in my fraternity, "Brother Raj" was in the US on a college visa. he didn't wanna go home. So he kept adding majors and minors in order to keep going to school.
Funniest guy you ever met in your life, Indian dude who drank hard and boasted of having been with more "tons" of women than anyone in the frat. I asked him one night how big the biggest one was, and he responded with a big grin in that accent " 300 easily". LOL!!!!!!!!!!!! He probably weighed 130 soaking wet.

Brave Raj was probably named after him.

[oracle80]

Brave Raj was probably named after him.
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
He certainly was!!! He was the kinda guy where you always knew where he would be every night near closing time. He was always near the pool table in the back whispering sweet nothings into the ear of the biggest girl in the place. You'd yell over to him, and he'd just turn and grin from ear to ear. I always wondered how he ended up and where he is. My best guess is that he married one of the fat ladys at the circus and runs the beer concession.

[Seattleallstar]

lol,
well I really dont know or care about the physique of Seattle.
im 5"10 and 140 lbs.
some may think Im too thin.
but I can run all day and Im cool with my body.
thats all that matters.
Coach Bob Knight has put on weight over the years and I respect him more as a person than just about anyone on this planet.

unless its a chic that Im going to do, i dont care how heavy a person is.


Repent


im 6ft2, 260 right now. Lost a bunch of weight prolly have gained 15-20 of it back the past month or so.

What im worried about now is all the stock i sold and squandered on gambling, and the taxes im gonna have to pay

[oracle80]

im 6ft2, 260 right now. Lost a bunch of weight prolly have gained 15-20 of it back the past month or so.

What im worried about now is all the stock i sold and squandered on gambling, and the taxes im gonna have to pay

You might wanna mention that the tax consequences were completely missed as a problem by you until I mentioned it to you.
I should have let you walk around blissfully ignorant.

[Cunningham Racing]

One of the racing publications has written that No Biz will pass on the Juvie and go to the Remsen.

Thats sucks...I really wanted him to come to Louisville and get some more of SCAT DADDY!!! --But, I think we all knew he wouldn't ship and come back on three weeks in that barn, which is the most conservative in the game....

I was SHOCKED he brought Showing Up to the Derby on just three weeks rest and the minor ailment the horse had after the Lexington Stakes....shocked....but really when it comes down to it, Tagg is as conservative as they come...

[Cajungator26]

im 6ft2, 260 right now. Lost a bunch of weight prolly have gained 15-20 of it back the past month or so.

What im worried about now is all the stock i sold and squandered on gambling, and the taxes im gonna have to pay

Um, yeah...

260, Jerry? My ex is 6'5" and 235 lbs. I thought he was robust! :eek:

[Cajungator26]

Thats sucks...I really wanted him to come to Louisville and get some more of SCAT DADDY!!! --But, I think we all knew he wouldn't ship and come back on three weeks in that barn, which is the most conservative in the game....

I was SHOCKED he brought Showing Up to the Derby on just three weeks rest and the minor ailment the horse had after the Lexington Stakes....shocked....but really when it comes down to it, Tagg is as conservative as they come...

I was shocked as well. I think that out of every horse that ran in the derby (with the exception of Barbaro ;) ), I was most impressed with Showing Up. He was in the front pack the whole way, and still managed to fight gamely for 6th. He's one hell of a horse. A lot better than I originally thought.

[oracle80]

Thats sucks...I really wanted him to come to Louisville and get some more of SCAT DADDY!!! --But, I think we all knew he wouldn't ship and come back on three weeks in that barn, which is the most conservative in the game....

I was SHOCKED he brought Showing Up to the Derby on just three weeks rest and the minor ailment the horse had after the Lexington Stakes....shocked....but really when it comes down to it, Tagg is as conservative as they come...
Joel three weeks back is very tough on a two year old, especially one who has to ship to do it. I couldn't blame anyone for not doing that. I think its the prudent move.

[Seattleallstar]

my pics aer on myspace if u wanna know

[Cajungator26]

my pics aer on myspace if u wanna know

If I wanna know about what?

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

One of the racing publications has written that No Biz will pass on the Juvie and go to the Remsen.

Guys, this tells you that Tagg believes that this horse is definitely derby material. He's saving him for next year, and as of right now, this is my derby horse. Well, actually, I made a bold prediction and said this was my derby horse just after he broke his maiden. It'll probably change like a million times between now and next May though.

Good move Tagg. FC skipped the Juvy also because Tagg felt that FC was Derby material. It paid off.

[philcski]

Guys, this tells you that Tagg believes that this horse is definitely derby material. He's saving him for next year, and as of right now, this is my derby horse. Well, actually, I made a bold prediction and said this was my derby horse just after he broke his maiden. It'll probably change like a million times between now and next May though.

Good move Tagg. FC skipped the Juvy also because Tagg felt that FC was Derby material. It paid off.

Well... he sorta skipped the BCJ... went on NYB Showcase day, the Sleepy Hollow, instead (the week before) and obviously a weaker group that he was a layup against.
Good move? Definitely.

[King Glorious]

Guys, this tells you that Tagg believes that this horse is definitely derby material. He's saving him for next year, and as of right now, this is my derby horse. Well, actually, I made a bold prediction and said this was my derby horse just after he broke his maiden. It'll probably change like a million times between now and next May though.

Good move Tagg. FC skipped the Juvy also because Tagg felt that FC was Derby material. It paid off.

I disagree with this completely. Since the BC series was started in 1984, runners out of the BCJ have had MUCH more success in the TC races than those from the Remsen. Consider this information:

Runners that ran 1-2-3 in the races and then won a Classic

Juvenile
Tank's Prospect
Spend a Buck
Alysheba (2)
Easy Goer
Tabasco Cat (2)
Timber Country
Editor's Note
Point Given (2)
Afleet Alex (2)

Remsen
Pine Bluff (also ran in the BC)
Go for Gin
Thunder Gulch (2)
Empire Maker

That's 9-4 in number of horses and 13-5 in number of Classic races won. This doesn't even include horses that ran in the BC that didn't hit the board but still won a Classic the following year. U could add Danzig Connection, Bet Twice, Go and Go, Pine Bluff, Sea Hero, Lemon Drop Kid. It also doesn't include a horse like Cat Thief, who went on the win the BC Classic the next year. It also doesn't include horses like Blumin Affair and Tejano Run who also finished on the board in the Derby. And if u look and see how many horses from both races went on to win grade ones the next year, the clear advantage is even more lopsided in favor of the BC Juvenile.

The point here is that for all this talk about a silly jinx (and it's hard to dispute the fact that no horse has won both yet), the BC Juvenile is a much better place to look for a 2yo that will go on to have success as a 3yo. Running in the BC does NOT mess up a 2yo for his 3yo season. If u've got a talented horse, run him. Skipping the BC because u think that's a better way to get to the Derby, a race six months down the line, is stupid. So much can and often does happen between now and then.

[blackthroatedwind]

First of all, the BC jinx is silliness, I agree with you on that and it isn't even worth discussing.

However, on your other example....yer kidding...right? Considering the BC Juvenile in THE race for 2YOs while the Remsen is one of a few late season 2YO races, and not exactly one that horses point to en masse like the BC Juvenile, I would say the numbers you pointed out show, if anything, the Remsen to be a staggeringly solid race as far as pointing out TC contendors.

Now, I don't believe in any of this, as theoretically all three of the major racetrack late season preps, the KY Jockey Club, the Hollywood Futurity and the Remsen should always be reasonable indicators of the next years TC races, but the comparison you chose does not support your point...if there really could even be a realistic one.

[King Glorious]

First of all, the BC jinx is silliness, I agree with you on that and it isn't even worth discussing.

However, on your other example....yer kidding...right? Considering the BC Juvenile in THE race for 2YOs while the Remsen is one of a few late season 2YO races, and not exactly one that horses point to en masse like the BC Juvenile, I would say the numbers you pointed out show, if anything, the Remsen to be a staggeringly solid race as far as pointing out TC contendors.

Now, I don't believe in any of this, as theoretically all three of the major racetrack late season preps, the KY Jockey Club, the Hollywood Futurity and the Remsen should always be reasonable indicators of the next years TC races, but the comparison you chose does not support your point...if there really could even be a realistic one.

My point wasn't to compare the two races. I would agree with u that the Hollywood Futurity or the KY race are better comparisons. If u have a horse that's started late and is not ready for the BC, then ok, skip the race. But if u have a horse that's ready to run but instead, u are skipping the race and running in another one, because of some silly jinx or because u think that later race will better prepare u for the classics the next year, I think that's a bad move. I think people focus too much on the fact that no BC winner has won the Derby and don't pay attention to how much TC success horses from the BC have actually had. I was responding to the poster that said that skipping the Juvenile is Tagg's way of saying that he believes this is a Derby horse and that he's saving him for next year.

[pgardn]

I am going back to the original Champagne and run it all over again with the same odds. Rerun the race. There is one horse that I will take everytime. Everytime.

Pegasus Wind. A little racing luck. This horse wins. At 21-1. With Scat Daddy getting caught up a bit, NoBiz having a tougher race. Any sane person who understands numbers would take Pegasus Wind as a betting proposition.

Cunningham gave it away again by throwing Albert the Great in. He has clearly taught horses how to read pedigrees... and his opinions of them. Holy snakes alive... you are a madman, but fun. Keep em coming.

[blackthroatedwind]

My point wasn't to compare the two races. I would agree with u that the Hollywood Futurity or the KY race are better comparisons. If u have a horse that's started late and is not ready for the BC, then ok, skip the race. But if u have a horse that's ready to run but instead, u are skipping the race and running in another one, because of some silly jinx or because u think that later race will better prepare u for the classics the next year, I think that's a bad move. I think people focus too much on the fact that no BC winner has won the Derby and don't pay attention to how much TC success horses from the BC have actually had. I was responding to the poster that said that skipping the Juvenile is Tagg's way of saying that he believes this is a Derby horse and that he's saving him for next year.


This I completely agree with. That poster also seemed to be indicating that Tagg skipped the BC with Funny Cide as well when that was really just a matter of timing and experience more than anything else.

Skipping the Juvenile because of the jinx is nonsensical.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

What are you all arguing? That Tagg didn't specifically skip the BCJ with FC because he felt that it would have been too much for his talented two year old at the time? Well, he did, and it paid off. He is doing the exact same thing with Nobiz Like Shobiz.

Why do you think that so many horses are injured or aren't nearly as good after they come out of the BCJ? It is because it is so hard on them to ship them across the country, and put them in a race of distance with that many other quality horses at that age. They usually aren't mature enough physically or mentally to handle it. It ruins a lot of them. Tagg realizes this. The jinx itself is silly because horses such as Afleet Alex came so close to winning the Derby (this is where you misunderstood me and I didn't mean that Tagg was skipping the BCJ because of the BCJ/Derby jinx). One day that will be broken. However, the BCJ has ruined a ton of nice 2 year olds for the reasons stated above, and Tagg doesn't want to take the gamble. Not racing a nice 2 yo in the BCJ paid off last time, so he wants to follow the same path. Plus, it is only three weeks away, and he doesn't want to push his talented colt because he has a very bright future and wants to save him for next year. I can see that logic. Also, on a side note, I'm not so sure that Afleet Alex didn't have some kind of injury after running in the race which is why he started back so late in his three year old year.

In addition, the reason that the Remsen has not produced nearly as many nice TC horses is because it is just after the BCJ. Most quit after the BC. You obviously don't have the quality of horses coming out of that race as you do in the BCJ. The BCJ is a Grade I and the Remsen is a Grade II. So, I don't see how you could even compare the number of horses who have done well in the TC from those two races based on these facts.

[oracle80]

WHy are you guys arguing?
Its obvious that Tagg felt three weeks back and a ship is just too hard. Kudos too him.
As far as King's assertion, any decent statistical whiz can show him the error of his contention, which is asinine at best.
King, hello?
The BC is a huge purse race that attracts horses from all over the country.
The Remsen is a local race run at Aqu on the same weekend as the KY jockey club Cup at CD, and close enough to the Hollywood race that a horse most often doesnt race in both(Tocchet being the exception).
You try and compare the two races, not realizing that you are showing an amazingly strong sample of NY based horses who actually went on to do things in the crown. You must realize that by limiting the sample to strictly Ny horses(or northeast) you cant accuartely compare it to the BC.
Tagg is not dodging anything.
Tagg is a smart and responsible horseman who is doing the right thing.

[philcski]

What are you all arguing? That Tagg didn't specifically skip the BCJ with FC because he felt that it would have been too much for his talented two year old at the time? Well, he did, and it paid off. He is doing the exact same thing with Nobiz Like Shobiz.

Why do you think that so many horses are injured or aren't nearly as good after they come out of the BCJ? It is because it is so hard on them to ship them across the country, and put them in a race of distance with that many other quality horses at that age. They usually aren't mature enough physically or mentally to handle it. It ruins a lot of them. Tagg realizes this. The jinx itself is silly because horses such as Afleet Alex came so close to winning the Derby (this is where you misunderstood me and I didn't mean that Tagg was skipping the BCJ because of the BCJ/Derby jinx). One day that will be broken. However, the BCJ has ruined a ton of nice 2 year olds for the reasons stated above, and Tagg doesn't want to take the gamble. Not racing a nice 2 yo in the BCJ paid off last time, so he wants to follow the same path. Plus, it is only three weeks away, and he doesn't want to push his talented colt because he has a very bright future and wants to save him for next year. I can see that logic. Also, on a side note, I'm not so sure that Afleet Alex didn't have some kind of injury after running in the race which is why he started back so late in his three year old year.

In addition, the reason that the Remsen has not produced nearly as many nice TC horses is because it is just after the BCJ. Most quit after the BC. You obviously don't have the quality of horses coming out of that race as you do in the BCJ. The BCJ is a Grade I and the Remsen is a Grade II. So, I don't see how you could even compare the number of horses who have done well in the TC from those two races based on these facts.

Read my post above. Tagg ran Funny Cide the week before the BCJ in the NYB Sleepy Hollow, and didn't really consider the Derby trail until AFTER that race, which was truly his breakout performance and made him a "contender".

[King Glorious]

First of all, the BC jinx is silliness, I agree with you on that and it isn't even worth discussing.

However, on your other example....yer kidding...right? Considering the BC Juvenile in THE race for 2YOs while the Remsen is one of a few late season 2YO races, and not exactly one that horses point to en masse like the BC Juvenile, I would say the numbers you pointed out show, if anything, the Remsen to be a staggeringly solid race as far as pointing out TC contendors.

Now, I don't believe in any of this, as theoretically all three of the major racetrack late season preps, the KY Jockey Club, the Hollywood Futurity and the Remsen should always be reasonable indicators of the next years TC races, but the comparison you chose does not support your point...if there really could even be a realistic one.

Just for the sake of comparing, I looked at some horses from the Hollywood Futurity to see how they've done. Again, this is horses that ran 1-2-3 in either of the races and went on to win a Classic the following year:

Remsen
Pine Bluff
Go for Gin
Thunder Gulch (2)
Empire Maker

Hollywood Futurity
Snow Chief
Ferdinand
Alysheba (2)
AP Indy
Thunder Gulch (2)
Real Quiet (2)
Point Given (2)
Giacomo

U can take out Thunder Gulch since he ran in both races.

# of TC races winners (total number of TC races won)
Remsen-3 (3)
Futurity-7 (10)

If u looked at the horses from both races that didn't win a TC race but hit the board in one of them, u would add:

Remsen
Bluegrass Cat

Futurity
Stephan's Odyssey
Best Pal
Dance Floor
Casual Lies

That doesn't even include horses like Captain Steve, Millennium Wind, High Yield, Lion Heart, Temperate Sil, Brocco, and Afternoon Deelites, all of whom went on to win grade one races as 3yos after hitting the board in the Futurity. The Remsen claims Java Gold, Talinum, Skip Away, Coronado's Quest.

So maybe if Tagg is skipping the BC because he's looking for a successful sophomore colt, he should skip the Remsen and come West. Of course, now that the Futurity will be run on JunkTrack, it's going to become an irrelevant race.

A quick check shows that there have only been two horses from the KY Jockey Club to win a TC race over the same period (Editor's Note and Real Quiet) for a total of three wins.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm not sure what you're getting at. All I was saying was that the Remsen holds its own, along most likely with the KY Jockey Club and Hollywood Futurity, against the BC Juvenile considering people point much more for the BC Juvenile than any other race.

That's all. I never said, or cared, that one prep was better than another. As far as I'm concerned I only care about horses and the performances they gave, not where they gave them specifically.

[King Glorious]

What are you all arguing? That Tagg didn't specifically skip the BCJ with FC because he felt that it would have been too much for his talented two year old at the time? Well, he did, and it paid off. He is doing the exact same thing with Nobiz Like Shobiz.

Why do you think that so many horses are injured or aren't nearly as good after they come out of the BCJ? It is because it is so hard on them to ship them across the country, and put them in a race of distance with that many other quality horses at that age. They usually aren't mature enough physically or mentally to handle it. It ruins a lot of them. Tagg realizes this. The jinx itself is silly because horses such as Afleet Alex came so close to winning the Derby (this is where you misunderstood me and I didn't mean that Tagg was skipping the BCJ because of the BCJ/Derby jinx). One day that will be broken. However, the BCJ has ruined a ton of nice 2 year olds for the reasons stated above, and Tagg doesn't want to take the gamble. Not racing a nice 2 yo in the BCJ paid off last time, so he wants to follow the same path. Plus, it is only three weeks away, and he doesn't want to push his talented colt because he has a very bright future and wants to save him for next year. I can see that logic. Also, on a side note, I'm not so sure that Afleet Alex didn't have some kind of injury after running in the race which is why he started back so late in his three year old year.

In addition, the reason that the Remsen has not produced nearly as many nice TC horses is because it is just after the BCJ. Most quit after the BC. You obviously don't have the quality of horses coming out of that race as you do in the BCJ. The BCJ is a Grade I and the Remsen is a Grade II. So, I don't see how you could even compare the number of horses who have done well in the TC from those two races based on these facts.

The part in bold is just not true. Too many good horses have come out of the Juvenile and run well. Just not any that have won the Juvenile and the Derby. But since 1985, there have been 66 TC races and 19 have been won by horses that ran in the Juvenile. That's 29% and that's not bad. Tell me any other Juvenile race that's a better indicator of future 3yo success. U say that the BC has ruined a ton of good horses and Tagg just doesn't want to take the gamble. How did not taking that gamble work out for Eurosilver or Ruler's Court?

[oracle80]

The part in bold is just not true. Too many good horses have come out of the Juvenile and run well. Just not any that have won the Juvenile and the Derby. But since 1985, there have been 66 TC races and 19 have been won by horses that ran in the Juvenile. That's 29% and that's not bad. Tell me any other Juvenile race that's a better indicator of future 3yo success. U say that the BC has ruined a ton of good horses and Tagg just doesn't want to take the gamble. How did not taking that gamble work out for Eurosilver or Ruler's Court?

I was alerted by two posters that you plaigerized my post on the stats of the juvy on another board. I'm not happy with you.

[King Glorious]

I'm not sure what you're getting at. All I was saying was that the Remsen holds its own, along most likely with the KY Jockey Club and Hollywood Futurity, against the BC Juvenile considering people point much more for the BC Juvenile than any other race.

That's all. I never said, or cared, that one prep was better than another. As far as I'm concerned I only care about horses and the performances they gave, not where they gave them specifically.

There was no real point in that post. Just looking at the historical records (at least during the BC era) of some comparative races. And in the last 10 years, only one Remsen 1-2-3 has won a TC race.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Read my post above. Tagg ran Funny Cide the week before the BCJ in the NYB Sleepy Hollow, and didn't really consider the Derby trail until AFTER that race, which was truly his breakout performance and made him a "contender".

No, Tagg was considering the Derby with the horse even before his Bertram Bongard performance. In the Bertram Bongard, FC won by nine lengths while under a strangle hold, posted a 103 BSF (the highest in the country at the time for two year olds), and broke the stakes record. That is when he began wondering whether or not to enter the horse in the Sleepy Hollow or the BCJ, and decided on the first for the reasons that I stated in my other post. A lot of people were pushing Tagg to enter FC in the BCJ just after the Bertram Bongard too.

[King Glorious]

I was alerted by two posters that you plaigerized my post on the stats of the juvy on another board. I'm not happy with you.

Excuse me?

[pgardn]

Horses two years old are still growing. They should not be raced imo. When they race, they compete. When they compete they run too hard. They are herd animals. They are bred to stay with or better, ahead of the group. Not like training where you can back them off and control things.

However, I will say I am really enjoying the reading on these preps and some of the stats thrown in. Thanks for sharing and looking all that up. This is really a good board.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

The part in bold is just not true. Too many good horses have come out of the Juvenile and run well. Just not any that have won the Juvenile and the Derby. But since 1985, there have been 66 TC races and 19 have been won by horses that ran in the Juvenile. That's 29% and that's not bad. Tell me any other Juvenile race that's a better indicator of future 3yo success. U say that the BC has ruined a ton of good horses and Tagg just doesn't want to take the gamble. How did not taking that gamble work out for Eurosilver or Ruler's Court?

Look, it is true. It is extremely hard on them. In general, it is very hard on two year olds to put them in a race such as the BCJ because of the level of competition. No race is a better indicator of future 3 yo success because, for the most part, the best and fastest two year olds in the country race in the BCJ. Just because it is the best two year old race in the country, doesn't mean that a lot of the horses don't have serious issues after running in that race. Some aren't mature enough to handle it. Sure, some go on without too many problems, but a lot don't, and that was the point that I was trying to make. That IS the reason that Tagg won't run his two year olds in the race. In fact, I was really surprised when he threw Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Champagne, but then again, the Champagne isn't near the race that the BCJ is. The BCJ's level of competition is unreal.

[philcski]

No, Tagg was considering the Derby with the horse even before his Bertram Bongard performance. In the Bertram Bongard, FC won by nine lengths while under a strangle hold, posted a 103 BSF (the highest in the country at the time for two year olds), and broke the stakes record. That is when he began wondering whether or not to enter the horse in the Sleepy Hollow or the BCJ, and decided on the first for the reasons that I stated in my other post. A lot of people were pushing Tagg to enter FC in the BCJ just after the Bertram Bongard too.

Good point. Had those two performances backwards in my mind. Bertram Bongard was the 9 length domination and the Sleepy Hollow was the struggle with Spite the Devil...
on a side note, amazing both these warriors will be facing off again on Saturday!

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Good point. Had those two performances backwards in my mind. Bertram Bongard was the 9 length domination and the Sleepy Hollow was the struggle with Spite the Devil...
on a side note, amazing both these warriors will be facing off again on Saturday!

That's cool. I didn't know that they were running against one another again...

[philcski]

That's cool. I didn't know that they were running against one another again...
see bottom for NYB showcase day probables:
http://www.drf.com/news/article/79679.html

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

see bottom for NYB showcase day probables:
http://www.drf.com/news/article/79679.html

Wow, that looks like some good racing. The Empire Classic looks really nice:D Naughty New Yorker, Funny Cide, West Virginia, Spite the Devil...

I'm also looking forward to Sharp Humor's return, and I want to see how Bad Boy Rising does in the Sleepy Hollow. I hope all probables run!

Thanks for putting that up:)

[blackthroatedwind]

see bottom for NYB showcase day probables:
http://www.drf.com/news/article/79679.html


Ya gotta love the Muskrat Rumble.

[philcski]

Ya gotta love the Muskrat Rumble.

Oh, I love it!!

It's the "boat" racing's big day... YACHT RACING!!!

Actually I'm most interested in the return of Sharp Humor. Interesting (but good) spot.

[SniperSB23]

I was alerted by two posters that you plaigerized my post on the stats of the juvy on another board. I'm not happy with you.

I know what post you are talking about and I'm pretty sure if he was going to plagiarize it on another board that he wouldn't have posted the exact same thing in this thread. I think they were just coincidentally similar.

[King Glorious]

I know what post you are talking about and I'm pretty sure if he was going to plagiarize it on another board that he wouldn't have posted the exact same thing in this thread. I think they were just coincidentally similar.

Can u clue me in?

[SniperSB23]

Can u clue me in?

Someone brought up the BC Juvenile curse on a thread on here a week or so back and Oracle replied with a post that included the list of all the horses that ran in the Juvy and went on to win Triple Crown races.

[King Glorious]

Someone brought up the BC Juvenile curse on a thread on here a week or so back and Oracle replied with a post that included the list of all the horses that ran in the Juvy and went on to win Triple Crown races.

Ok, I get it. Thanks. Oracle, I can guarantee u that I didn't see your post.

[ateamstupid]

While I was impressed with NoBiz' move into contention I really disliked the way he leaned into Pegasus Wind when they turned for home.

This is not at all what I saw. I saw Pegasus Wind drift slightly into Nobiz and that's when Nobiz started acting green and looking at the grandstand.

[jpops757]

No doubt he is talented, but Mike cannot say that he was the best horse...that would be asonine....I haven't seen a two-year-old train in the mornings like Scat Daddy does since Afleet Alex....he's no fluke and very much deserves more credit than people give him....

NLS didn't lose that race...Scat Daddy won it
Can it be as simple is dont give up on this horse, Somemore experience and a better trip and a win is there. Why do you think a defense of one horse is a knock on the other. Just my opinion is a bomb will take the Juvi. Dont ask me which one because I have no idea. Someone will come in and throw an alltime best and beat the Pletcher bunch . Maybe even Pletchers 3rd stringer. These are 2yr olds and much improvement can occure early.

[Danzig]

I disagree with this completely. Since the BC series was started in 1984, runners out of the BCJ have had MUCH more success in the TC races than those from the Remsen. Consider this information:

Runners that ran 1-2-3 in the races and then won a Classic

Juvenile
Tank's Prospect
Spend a Buck
Alysheba (2)
Easy Goer
Tabasco Cat (2)
Timber Country
Editor's Note
Point Given (2)
Afleet Alex (2)

Remsen
Pine Bluff (also ran in the BC)
Go for Gin
Thunder Gulch (2)
Empire Maker

That's 9-4 in number of horses and 13-5 in number of Classic races won. This doesn't even include horses that ran in the BC that didn't hit the board but still won a Classic the following year. U could add Danzig Connection, Bet Twice, Go and Go, Pine Bluff, Sea Hero, Lemon Drop Kid. It also doesn't include a horse like Cat Thief, who went on the win the BC Classic the next year. It also doesn't include horses like Blumin Affair and Tejano Run who also finished on the board in the Derby. And if u look and see how many horses from both races went on to win grade ones the next year, the clear advantage is even more lopsided in favor of the BC Juvenile.

The point here is that for all this talk about a silly jinx (and it's hard to dispute the fact that no horse has won both yet), the BC Juvenile is a much better place to look for a 2yo that will go on to have success as a 3yo. Running in the BC does NOT mess up a 2yo for his 3yo season. If u've got a talented horse, run him. Skipping the BC because u think that's a better way to get to the Derby, a race six months down the line, is stupid. So much can and often does happen between now and then.

i remember when zito passed on the bcj a few years ago when he seemed loaded to the gills with talent. he had eurosilver among others...and said he was skipping to 'save' his horses for the derby. i said he was making a HUGE mistake, that if any of his juvies would be a viable contender, that he should run them in the bc. of course i was given ample harrassment, people telling me that 'zito knows what he's doing', he's the hall of famer, who was i to question..yadda yadda....at any rate, we all know how that turned out for nick.

if you have a good two year old, who you feel belongs in the bcj, and he's good to go--run him. there's no telling what will happen in the months to come. if you have a precocious youngster, race him.
now, i'm not saying this particular horse needs to run, it's entirely up to his connections...the spacing may not be right.
but everyone knows, or should know, that a horse who's good now may not be in the future...

a bird in the hand and all that.

as for any jinx, i think that's ridiculous.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Tell that to Tagg. It worked for FC, and Nick had bad luck with his horse...

There's no telling what can happen in the months to come, but there's also no telling what might happen in the BCJ. I probably would have done the same thing if I had some fragile two year olds who had a ton of potential. Who's to say that Eurosilver would have won or even done well in the BCJ anyway? That's why I think that cases of horses like Eurosilver aren't legitimate. Heck, FC might have won the BCJ and the Derby...who knows, but I would have rather won the Derby than the BCJ, and the decision paid off for Tagg. But it's not just the Derby. It's saving the horses from preventable injuries so they may race to their peak the following year. I'll leave the training job to the trainers because, most of the time, they make good decisions based upon each individual animal and each individual circumstance. Nick may not have made the wrong decision with his horses. It's an unknown factor because you don't know how his horses would have done in the BCJ, and whether or not they would have gotten injured in the BCJ that kept them from racing the following year anyway.

[King Glorious]

Tell that to Tagg. It worked for FC, and Nick had bad luck with his horse...

There's no telling what can happen in the months to come, but there's also no telling what might happen in the BCJ. I probably would have done the same thing if I had some fragile two year olds who had a ton of potential. Who's to say that Eurosilver would have won or even done well in the BCJ anyway? That's why I think that cases of horses like Eurosilver aren't legitimate. Heck, FC might have won the BCJ and the Derby...who knows, but I would have rather won the Derby than the BCJ, and the decision paid off for Tagg. But it's not just the Derby. It's saving the horses from preventable injuries so they may race to their peak the following year. I'll leave the training job to the trainers because, most of the time, they make good decisions based upon each individual animal and each individual circumstance. Nick may not have made the wrong decision with his horses. It's an unknown factor because you don't know how his horses would have done in the BCJ, and whether or not they would have gotten injured in the BCJ that kept them from racing the following year anyway.

Or how about we tell it to John Servis who skipped the BC with Rockport Harbor and ran in the Remsen. How did that whole thing work out? I asked u about Ruler's Court earlier. The truth is that there is no guarantee by going in any race and skipping one now because u are scared of getting hurt is silly. U can get hurt in any race at any time. And the past record has shown us that quite a few really good 2yo's have run in the BC and come back to be really good 3yo's. I can give u more examples of horses that ran in the BC and did well as 3yo's than u can give me of horses that were purposely held out of the BC due to concern about injuries or whatever and went on to 3yo success.

Question. If u had your choice, would u just abolish the BC Juvenile? I mean, u seem to be saying that it's the right choice for any trainer with a 2yo that has any hopes of staying healthy and prospering as a 3yo to skip the race.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Yes, your horse can get hurt in any race at any time. But, the BCJ is harder on the two year olds than any other two year old race in the country. It is a simple fact that I don't see why anyone would argue because the figures are there.

No, I wouldn't abolish the BCJ (I actually like the race), but if I had a really, really promising two year old who looked like there was a ton of room for improvement and could get the classic distances, I would be damned if I would run my horse in that race because I know what it does to a lot of them.

And I can give you a ton of examples of horses that were injured in the race, retired, had problems throughout the rest of their careers because of that race, or were just never good again because of both mental and physical reasons specifically from running in that race. It is the two year old equivalent to the Derby, although the Derby carries much, much more weight. Both races ruin a ton of horses.

I believe that Tagg is the best trainer in the country with the quality of stock that he gets into his stable, and I believe that he makes very good decisions with his horses. I'll trust his judgment again.

[ArlJim78]

Could it be as simple as the trainer doesn't think his horse is ready for the BCJ so is passing it up? Isn't that part of what a good trainer is supposed to do, not run his horse unless the horse is ready?

I don't think this decision involves any consideration of jinxes or the Kentucky Derby. Just sound horsemanship imo.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

It gets worse on here every day. These statements are far worse than calling some poster a "swine".

:mad:

I think that he is one of the best. Each trainer has their strenghts and their weaknesses. For example, I think that Todd Pletcher is excellent at spotting his horses.

Why don't you like Tagg?

[oracle80]

I have neve spoken to, or with TP. To me he is simply in another stratosphere. I've never seen anything like it before.

As far as Tagg/Smullen, No comment...............

He speaks like one of the most professional people you will meet in any walk of life or any field of business that you ever spoke to.

[Seattleallstar]

Originally Posted by oracle80
"I was alerted by two posters that you plaigerized my post on the stats of the juvy on another board. I'm not happy with you."




get over yourself you big baby, besides you big dummy stats are factual information that can be accessed by anyone with half a brain, the mere fact you used the word plagarized to describe your displeasure speaks on how big your ego is and is a testament to how much of an ******* you can be.

Quit yer whinin!

[oracle80]

Originally Posted by oracle80
"I was alerted by two posters that you plaigerized my post on the stats of the juvy on another board. I'm not happy with you."




get over yourself you big baby, besides you big dummy stats are factual information that can be accessed by anyone with half a brain, the mere fact you used the word plagarized to describe your displeasure speaks on how big your ego is and is a testament to how much of an ******* you can be.

Quit yer whinin!

This from a guy who doesn't have a drivers liscense and uses a BMW symbol as his avatar.
You'll pardon me if I take everything you say with a huge grain of salt won't you?

[Revolution]

Yes, your horse can get hurt in any race at any time. But, the BCJ is harder on the two year olds than any other two year old race in the country. It is a simple fact that I don't see why anyone would argue because the figures are there.

No, I wouldn't abolish the BCJ (I actually like the race), but if I had a really, really promising two year old who looked like there was a ton of room for improvement and could get the classic distances, I would be damned if I would run my horse in that race because I know what it does to a lot of them.

And I can give you a ton of examples of horses that were injured in the race, retired, had problems throughout the rest of their careers because of that race, or were just never good again because of both mental and physical reasons specifically from running in that race. It is the two year old equivalent to the Derby, although the Derby carries much, much more weight. Both races ruin a ton of horses.

I believe that Tagg is the best trainer in the country with the quality of stock that he gets into his stable, and I believe that he makes very good decisions with his horses. I'll trust his judgment again.

The guys that know Tagg say he is great at buying horses and great with turf horses, but he can be a little shaky on placing his horses and the timing of some of his works with his horses.

It sounds like Showing Up is definitely not going to the Breeders Cup. The owners did not have a preference and left it to Tagg.

[Seattleallstar]

This from a guy who doesn't have a drivers liscense and uses a BMW symbol as his avatar.
You'll pardon me if I take everything you say with a huge grain of salt won't you?


I like riding in the BMW, its nice. Much better than the Mercedes

[Cajungator26]

I like riding in the BMW, its nice. Much better than the Mercedes

And who bought it? Mom or Dad?

[Seattleallstar]

And who bought it? Mom or Dad?


ugh!..lol, I dont drive. We have 2 BMW's and a Mercedes. Used to have a Range Rover but it cost too much for gas and maintenance.

[Coach Pants]

ugh!..lol, I dont drive. We have 2 BMW's and a Mercedes. Used to have a Range Rover but it cost too much for gas and maintenance.
"We" haha!

[Cajungator26]

ugh!..lol, I dont drive. We have 2 BMW's and a Mercedes. Used to have a Range Rover but it cost too much for gas and maintenance.

Why don't you drive? :eek:

I couldn't survive without my piece of shiat. I can't wait to get a new car next year...

[Seattleallstar]

"We" haha!


ok fine..lol. THEY! But im the one paying the upkeep on the BMW's and I pay for insurance on all cars

[Seattleallstar]

Why don't you drive? :eek:

I couldn't survive without my piece of shiat. I can't wait to get a new car next year...


honestly J, im scared to drive plain and simple

[Cajungator26]

honestly J, im scared to drive plain and simple

Gotta face your fears...

If you want to talk about scary, try driving a Nextel Cup car! I got to drive one of them down pit road (obviously not at high speed :o ) but it was crazy how much power that thing had. :D

Fastest I've ever been on the highway is 130. It's fun! :)

[Seattleallstar]

Gotta face your fears...

If you want to talk about scary, try driving a Nextel Cup car! I got to drive one of them down pit road (obviously not at high speed :o ) but it was crazy how much power that thing had. :D

Fastest I've ever been on the highway is 130. It's fun! :)


wow cool, funny thing is im into cars and im also into motorsports.

#24!! all the way biaaches, only reason I got into NASCAR

[Cajungator26]

wow cool, funny thing is im into cars and im also into motorsports.

#24!! all the way biaaches, only reason I got into NASCAR

OOOOOOH... we'll never get along. I can't stand that prick. Definitely not a nice guy...

But more power to you... ;)

[Seattleallstar]

OOOOOOH... we'll never get along. I can't stand that prick. Definitely not a nice guy...

But more power to you... ;)


yeah I know alot of people say your not a real fan of NASCAR if Gordon is your guy, i know alot of people in the south hate his guts, but oddly enough in California, and most of the West and northeast are big Jeff Gordon fans. But the white trash area of WA State are devoted lovers of Jr

[Cajungator26]

yeah I know alot of people say your not a real fan of NASCAR if Gordon is your guy, i know alot of people in the south hate his guts, but oddly enough in California, and most of the West and northeast are big Jeff Gordon fans. But the white trash area of WA State are devoted lovers of Jr

I know him, and I'm just telling you that my dislike for him has nothing to do with his driving skill. I dislike HIM. He deserves whatever comes his way. Dale Jr on the other hand, is a very nice and respectable person. Neither one is the driver I root for, though. I like Carl Edwards and Elliott Sadler a lot, but I also root for Kenny Schrader.

[Seattleallstar]

probably explains why his hott model wife left him

[Cajungator26]

probably explains why his hott model wife left him

Nah, there was more to that story, but no worries... he's got another hot model on his arm now. He's not lacking in the women department.

[Coach Pants]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sCGWcuu_y4

[Seattleallstar]

well he seems arrogant and ******* like at times, very ****y too

[repent]

you have got to be kidding Seattle.
you still refuse to drive?

I thought that was something you grew out of years ago back when we were both still in college.

how the hell do you survive?
I dont know how far Emerald is from your house, but I would think just getting to Auburn every day and back would be a b*tch without driving a car.

I spend probably an hour a day at least just getting to and from work, not to mention all the other driving I do as part of everyday life.

I know it sounds easy for me to say, but get over this fear.
it can be a lot of fun and I would have to think it would make your life substantially easier.


Repent

[Danzig]

Tell that to Tagg. It worked for FC, and Nick had bad luck with his horse...

There's no telling what can happen in the months to come, but there's also no telling what might happen in the BCJ. I probably would have done the same thing if I had some fragile two year olds who had a ton of potential. Who's to say that Eurosilver would have won or even done well in the BCJ anyway? That's why I think that cases of horses like Eurosilver aren't legitimate. Heck, FC might have won the BCJ and the Derby...who knows, but I would have rather won the Derby than the BCJ, and the decision paid off for Tagg. But it's not just the Derby. It's saving the horses from preventable injuries so they may race to their peak the following year. I'll leave the training job to the trainers because, most of the time, they make good decisions based upon each individual animal and each individual circumstance. Nick may not have made the wrong decision with his horses. It's an unknown factor because you don't know how his horses would have done in the BCJ, and whether or not they would have gotten injured in the BCJ that kept them from racing the following year anyway.

taggs one doesn't equal all those of zitos as far as not striking while the iron was hot, and running his horses when healthy and when they had a legit shot, a much better shot at running in and doing well in a grade one when you have no idea what those horses are going to be six months down the road.
i don't feel you have to choose one route or the other. macho uno, afleet alex, point given among others tell me that you can have a good two year old, a real shot at the bcj, and continue on at three.
zito skipped it at two, and none did well at three.

you can have your cake and eat it too..as long as you try to make the cake first!!

hey, it worked out for tagg...but who's to say what FC would have done had he run in the bcj???
but skipping it certainly didn't do anything for nicks horses.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Danzig, I basically said the same thing that you just did in my post. I was basically arguing the fact that the BCJ happens to be harder on two year olds than any other two year old race in the country. It ruins a lot of good ones. It depends on the individual animal and the individual circumstances to whether or not the trainers want to take the gamble by running potential TC horses in that race. With a horse such as Nobiz Like Shobiz, Tagg obviously feels that there is more to gain by not running his horse in that race, and I don't blame him one bit. Now, I don't know if FC would have won the BCJ or not, and I stated that in my post above. It's not just Tagg who skips the BCJ either. Lots of top horses never run in the race. Heck, neither Flower Alley or Bellamy Road were in the race, and they were top horses of last year.

Again, I trust Tagg's judgment with Nobiz Like Shobiz. I can almost guarantee, unless something weird happens, that Nobiz Like Shobiz is going to be a force to be reckoned with next year. I can't wait!