Rule of Thumb for wagering at Keeneland

[Cunningham Racing]

...especially opening weekend before you can get a feel for how the new configuration and Polytrack will play and what horses have the advantages:

DO NOT TAKE LESS THAN 5-1 ON ANY HORSE ALL WEEKEND, AND MAKE MOST OF YOUR PLAYS OVER 10-1...

I would bet that this betting pattern proves to be successful if you can find attributes in middle-priced horses or longshots...

EVERY horse is vulnerable on Polytrack....Circular Quay, Happy Ticket, you name the horse....its not worth the short price on these horses just because they may be better on DIRT...

Good luck to everyone this weekend and I hope this theory makes you a lot of money - or at least saves you some from betting too many short-priced favorites :)

[oracle80]

I'd go so far as to say its unplayable.
The 5 stakes races at Turfway park this past weekend contained qulaity animals with form, yet all 5 were won by longshots with little or next to little rational chance.
I didn't bet a quarter on that card, thank God. I simply cannot play this surface. It has no form, and many horses just refuse to run on it. Horses may like or dislike certain dirt surfaces more than others, but they don't jst refuse to try on them.
Stick to the grass, and to Belmont Park and Santa Anita would be an even better idea.

[Cunningham Racing]

I'd go so far as to say its unplayable.
The 5 stakes races at Turfway park this past weekend contained qulaity animals with form, yet all 5 were won by longshots with little or next to little rational chance.
I didn't bet a quarter on that card, thank God. I simply cannot play this surface. It has no form, and many horses just refuse to run on it. Horses may like or dislike certain dirt surfaces more than others, but they don't jst refuse to try on them.
Stick to the grass, and to Belmont Park and Santa Anita would be an even better idea.

Well said...I agree deeply...this is EXACTLY why I am NOT a proponent of Polytrack....many top dirt horses won't act on it...

I still can't see how With a City won the Lane's End earlier this year....he couldn't have won on the dirt if they'd have let him cut through the infield....

This surface WILL change racing and in more negative ways than positive IMO....start taking notes

[Coach Pants]

Great advice, Joel. Where do I sign up for your handicapping newsletter?

[Sightseek]

I'd go so far as to say its unplayable.
The 5 stakes races at Turfway park this past weekend contained qulaity animals with form, yet all 5 were won by longshots with little or next to little rational chance.
I didn't bet a quarter on that card, thank God. I simply cannot play this surface. It has no form, and many horses just refuse to run on it. Horses may like or dislike certain dirt surfaces more than others, but they don't jst refuse to try on them.
Stick to the grass, and to Belmont Park and Santa Anita would be an even better idea.

Well Premium Tap would have won had he not gone up Ball Four's butt on the turn. I played Ball Four though in that race only because he was the only one with Poly form.

[JJP]

My rule of thumb for Kee; avoid any race not run on (real) grass.

[Coach Pants]

Jockey - Leparoux
Trainer - Biancone

Are the obvious favorites going into this meet.

But watch for Amoss, Reinstadler, and Wismer to sneak a few prices in. Especially if the east coast big dogs have a few contenders in the races with them.

[tycharles01]

I think it's more about if they ran over poly before than anything. Even horses you ran crap dead last on poly might have an advantage over some nice horse who ran good at the Spa on dirt. The more the meet goes the more you will see the prices drop just due to the fact that people will start realizing it's not about the class of the horse but rather has he/she ran the surface much like a dirt to turf horse

Also start looking over there workouts over the poly. Some horses that ran crap are turning in nice training on the poly

[Cunningham Racing]

Jockey - Leparoux
Trainer - Biancone



See, I actually don't think trainers and jockeys will play a huge factor here...I really don't....I know Biancone trains over it at TP and Leparoux is the leading rider at TP - but that still doesn't mean that their horses will like that surface....

I sincerely believe that pedigree is much more important but it is tricky to really figure out......

[Coach Pants]

See, I actually don't think trainers and jockeys will play a huge factor here...I really don't....I know Biancone trains over it at TP and Leparoux is the leading rider at TP - but that still doesn't mean that their horses will like that surface....

I sincerely believe that pedigree is much more important but it is tricky to really figure out......

The surface will be a little different but if it's even close to TP's then it's going to be advantage Team France.

I'm actually hoping the public overbets them and have a good feeling that will be the case. Then comes the fun part of finding who'll beat them with very limited data.

[Pointg5]

Dartboard

or

Ask the girl that looks like she's had the most to drink...

Either way will be fine, but don't put any effort into it...

[pgardn]

Sounds like an exotics paradise.
For those 10 centers and just combine away.

If they have them.

[Coach Pants]

Sounds like an exotics paradise.
For those 10 centers and just combine away.

If they have them.
They do. $.50 picker 4's as well.

How people refuse to bet on this is beyond me. I thought this game was about challenges and finding value?

[KonaNative]

I think it's more about if they ran over poly before than anything. Even horses you ran crap dead last on poly might have an advantage over some nice horse who ran good at the Spa on dirt. The more the meet goes the more you will see the prices drop just due to the fact that people will start realizing it's not about the class of the horse but rather has he/she ran the surface much like a dirt to turf horse

Also start looking over there workouts over the poly. Some horses that ran crap are turning in nice training on the polyDepends on your definition of Class. It takes a combination of speed and stamina to win on the Poly.

[oracle80]

They might train over it, but training on a surface and running in a race on it are two different stories.

[Pedigree Ann]

I'm thinking GOOD works at Kee or TP would be a useful indicator. Especially if their works elsewhere aren't all that much. At least, that found me a 19/1 maiden winner a couple of weekends ago at TP. She looked a logical contender to me - I couldn't believe the price.

[Round Pen]

They do. $.50 picker 4's as well.

How people refuse to bet on this is beyond me. I thought this game was about challenges and finding value?

100 % correct I love this new twist especially if I like a Couple of big priced horses. you would be crazy not to bet $.50 tickets And just hit the repeat button as many times as you like.

[DiscreetCat=Monster]

I don't buy that! If a horse can run he can run no matter what. Its like tiger woods and michael jordan, any course any court they have an advantage when your better than the rest the cream rises to the top.

[Cunningham Racing]

They might train over it, but training on a surface and running in a race on it are two different stories.


Another statement I couldn't agree more with....I've talked to many trainers who train over it and have been fooled because their horses don't run on it like they train on it....and some of these trainers are good enough trainers that I trust their opinions when they tell me a horse will run big on the dirt based on how the horse is training on the dirt.....this just goes to show you that Polytrack has evereybody throw off when it comes to conventional wisdom of training horses....

[2MinsToPost]

Like I said to PointG earlier today -

I was hanging around a friend of mines barn earlier this week at Beulah and someone came by with a ziplock bag half filled with the poly stuff from Turfway. I looked and then smelled.

It looks spooky to the eyes and smells bad, literally.

[Round Pen]

I don't want to make anyone mad here but some of you guys are absolutely making to much of this Polytrack and Handicapping. I consider myself a very astute handicapper and I use just about every resource available when I can.
Don't get me wrong I do not win all of the time but I have made some very good scores so far at Turfway.

Handicapping you get out of it what you put into it and it does take a little effort form time to time Especially on the Poly.

Can't wait for Keeneland this weekend I have already been looking at the pp's for Fri and Sat and there looks like a couple very good betting opportunities just off my initial look at the pp's.

[SniperSB23]

Like I said to PointG earlier today -

I was hanging around a friend of mines barn earlier this week at Beulah and someone came by with a ziplock bag half filled with the poly stuff from Turfway. I looked and then smelled.

It looks spooky to the eyes and smells bad, literally.

You better not go to the bathroom again, that stuff smells too. You might as well just break down and die from constipation rather than suffer through a bad smell. Just like horses should run on dirt where they are more likely to break down rather than run on polytrack because it smells. There are plenty of good arguments against polytrack. The fact that it smells a little isn't one of them.

[Round Pen]

Another statement I couldn't agree more with....I've talked to many trainers who train over it and have been fooled because their horses don't run on it like they train on it....and some of these trainers are good enough trainers that I trust their opinions when they tell me a horse will run big on the dirt based on how the horse is training on the dirt.....this just goes to show you that Polytrack has evereybody throw off when it comes to conventional wisdom of training horses....

No it does not I would love to have Just a $1 for every time that a trainer has told me man this one is training great over the track (dirt Track) then to turn around in the afternoon and run up the track.

[Cunningham Racing]

[/B]

No it does not I would love to have Just a $1 for every time that a trainer has told me man this one is training great over the track (dirt Track) then to turn around in the afternoon and run up the track.

Your obviously talking to worse trainers than me - no offense...but you have to know the crap trainers to decipher bad steam from the good steam from the good trainers......

[Round Pen]

No I don't think so I think I have been around long enough and know enough of these guys to know who is good and who isn't.

[pba1817]

I've talked to many trainers who train over it and have been fooled because their horses don't run on it like they train on it....and some of these trainers are good enough trainers that I trust their opinions when they tell me a horse will run big on the dirt based on how the horse is training on the dirt.....this just goes to show you that Polytrack has evereybody throw off when it comes to conventional wisdom of training horses....


Conventional wisdom of training?? Is that the "cheat as much as possible without being caught" angle that so many "great" trainers of today are enjoying???

I am sure you are aware of it, but just in case.... here is a nice piece of reading for you or anyone else who thinks that everything and everybody is on the up and up.

http://www.chrb.ca.gov/

Read the sections, Administration Hearings and Complaints/Accusations.

IMO, this is the real reason the people in control are leaning to Polytrack, and thats to hopefully reduce/eliminate the necessity for trainers to cheat just to get their horses healthy enough to be competitive.

This is also why Jeff Mullins said anyone who bets on horses is stupid... he knows exactly whats going on out the on the backside... He was trying to do everyone a favor.. instead everyone got pissed at him...

[eurobounce]

Handicapping Polytrack is just like handicapping anything else. With A City could have gotten lucky and won a race. Maybe that race could be ran 100x and With A City may never win again. Kind of like Volponi a few years back in the BCC. Upsets happen and longshots win from time to time. Just because it happens on PolyTrack doesnt mean that the surface is off form. Premium Tap and Perfect Drift ran great over the surface. In regards to Turfway, those horses are basically the bottom of the barrel so you never know what will happen with that group.

I think you will find that Keeneland will offer nice value and you will see the favorites win. If I can give any adive, I would stay away from the rail horses. I would play mid pack to outside posts and I would play speed from the outside. To me, the surface appears to be a little tiring down on the rail.

Also, when it comes to works, good works dont always equate to a good race. Also, I have talked to about 8 trainers at Keeneland and they all absolutely love the track. Should be a great meet. I also predict that handle will be up about 13% this year.

[blackthroatedwind]

I will be surprised if the handle is up and 13% is pretty....ambitious?

I am on the fence but I think the least we can do is pay careful attention and even though I don't plan on betting much, especially early, it is the first good test, at least for me, for polytrack and trying to handicap it.

My gut feeling is that it won't be significantly different but the randomness factor feels like it will increase. If nothing else, I can refute Biancone who told me 95% of horses will perform the same on Polytrack as dirt. I find that hard to believe but he knows better than I do...at least at this point.

One of the joys of handicapping and playing the horses is the adventure and since Polytrack is here, and probably will be appearing at more tracks, it's time to give it a whirl....if not for money then for sport.

[TitanSooner]

I can't wait to see a closer win at Keeneland :D

[Pointg5]

I can't wait to see a closer win at Keeneland :D


Arabian Light, Unshaded, Clockstopper, it happens...

[Pointg5]

Up 13%, how did you ever arrive at that number, I love it when people throw up nonsensical things..

Kycherub strikes again...

[oracle80]

Your obviously talking to worse trainers than me - no offense...but you have to know the crap trainers to decipher bad steam from the good steam from the good trainers......

Joel what these guys don't realize is obviously what you and I do.
Trust me, there are plenty of guys who want nothing to do with racing on this stuff, and after a few beers will tell you plenty.
But noone wants to be painted in the non progressive stroke that the media would paint them in if they talk down about it.
Obvisouly Joel, like I, has had convos with these guys way off the record, and heard the same thing.
Everybody I know just wants a deeper cushion with a safe deeper dirt surface, problem solved. Except some con men can't try and make money marketing dirt now can they.
I find it very obvious that the trainers who talk this stuff up are failures who never won a big race on the dirt in their lives, lots of Eurotrash is basically what likes it.

[oracle80]

Up 13%, how did you ever arrive at that number, I love it when people throw up nonsensical things..

Kycherub strikes again...

Their handle goes way down, no way does it go up. And oh, ummm, how did Turfway end up this past meet. A certain liar on this board was talking about how much they were gonna be up, etc. Guys an exposed liar.

[oracle80]

Handicapping Polytrack is just like handicapping anything else. With A City could have gotten lucky and won a race. Maybe that race could be ran 100x and With A City may never win again. Kind of like Volponi a few years back in the BCC. Upsets happen and longshots win from time to time. Just because it happens on PolyTrack doesnt mean that the surface is off form. Premium Tap and Perfect Drift ran great over the surface. In regards to Turfway, those horses are basically the bottom of the barrel so you never know what will happen with that group.

I think you will find that Keeneland will offer nice value and you will see the favorites win. If I can give any adive, I would stay away from the rail horses. I would play mid pack to outside posts and I would play speed from the outside. To me, the surface appears to be a little tiring down on the rail.

Also, when it comes to works, good works dont always equate to a good race. Also, I have talked to about 8 trainers at Keeneland and they all absolutely love the track. Should be a great meet. I also predict that handle will be up about 13% this year.


YOu are a liar, and you have a vested interest in the stuff.
Care to tell us all about the Turfway numbers for the past meet?
Oh, and nice try saying that 5 horses 15-1 or longer could win stakes like that in one day. Where have you ever seen that? Go ahead and try and pull one card from anywhere at any track where they ran 5 stakes races in one day and ALL were bombs. Get real will you? WHo do you think you are talking to here, idiots?
Its like the first time in history that a track runs 5 stakes on one card and every horse is an unfathomable bomb. YOu wanna explain to us, that just happens, yeah ok sure.
No please get those Turfway figures for us if you will.
Bet you any amount you wanna bet!!! Keeneland's handle goes down.

[Pointg5]

Their handle goes way down, no way does it go up. And oh, ummm, how did Turfway end up this past meet. A certain liar on this board was talking about how much they were gonna be up, etc. Guys an exposed liar.

I was reading the article in the DRF about KEE and they were interviewing Larry Jones, it didn't take a real brain surgeon to figure out that he doesn't mind training on it, but he's not real crazy about racing on it...

[randallscott35]

Second race on the opening day of Keenland is a 7500 claimer. Opening day!

[oracle80]

Second race on the opening day of Keenland is a 7500 claimer. Opening day!

Being run on the "all weather surface" as well, lol.
The folks who try to compare Keeneland with Saratoga, well, they need help.

[Five Star Derek]

Joel what these guys don't realize is obviously what you and I do.
Trust me, there are plenty of guys who want nothing to do with racing on this stuff, and after a few beers will tell you plenty.
But noone wants to be painted in the non progressive stroke that the media would paint them in if they talk down about it.
Obvisouly Joel, like I, has had convos with these guys way off the record, and heard the same thing.
Everybody I know just wants a deeper cushion with a safe deeper dirt surface, problem solved. Except some con men can't try and make money marketing dirt now can they.
I find it very obvious that the trainers who talk this stuff up are failures who never won a big race on the dirt in their lives, lots of Eurotrash is basically what likes it.
What will these trainers excuse be when they fail on the new surface too, or they contunue to break down horses? People are acting like Polytrack is the holy grail. I do think Polytrack is good for certain tracks in certain areas but its not the universal answer for all tracks

I have to disagree with you guys when it comes to handicapping on it. I will not be playing Keeneland until I understand where I will get my edge. There should be ways to getting an advantage on this surface just like any other.

[randallscott35]

Hey,

Don't forget its ok still to play the turf at Keenland. A good turf course to bet on. Always liked it.

[Cunningham Racing]

Premium Tap and Perfect Drift ran great over the surface.

They got beat by BALL FOUR!!!...Yeah, thats right..I said BALL FOUR beat them!!!

[Sightseek]

They got beat by BALL FOUR!!!...Yeah, thats right..I said BALL FOUR beat them!!!

Do you really think Premium Tap would have lost if he hadn't lost his momentum on the turn?

[Pointg5]

Do you really think Premium Tap would have lost if he hadn't lost his momentum on the turn?

Do you really think it would have been that close if they weren't running on Poly?

Oracle pointed out that the charts from KY Cup Day, had 3 horses that lost footing, hmm, sounds like they didn't like the surface...

[oracle80]

What will these trainers excuse be when they fail on the new surface too, or they contunue to break down horses? People are acting like Polytrack is the holy grail. I do think Polytrack is good for certain tracks in certain areas but its not the universal answer for all tracks

I have to disagree with you guys when it comes to handicapping on it. I will not be playing Keeneland until I understand where I will get my edge. There should be ways to getting an advantage on this surface just like any other.

Derek, I know a lotta players. Guys who really send it in, whales so to speak. None of em I know wants to touch betting this stuff.
I love to play, really love to. So when I say I won't play a particular surface its a bold statement.
I know that Turfway's everyday cards are very cheap and not good to make comparisons on. But if you look at the three big days they've had there since the stuff was put in last fall, you'll see that none of these horses who won ever came back and did squat, other than High Cotton who is the polytrack poster child(and man thats not saying a whole damn lot).
With A City couldn't beat me across the street and he won a biggie.
Check out the winners on Ky Cup day in the 5 stakes in 2005, then check out Lanes End day earlier this year, the winners have never replicated any dirt form ever afterwards. Then the other day was just a disgrace. Flint's filly couldn't go 5f and she airs going two turns. Anyone wanan take bets on how Reigning Court comes back in stakes races on dirt? Etc.
The problem with this stuff is that regardless of what anyone tells you its a dirt replacement surface. Anyone who tries to tell its not is smoking something pretty strong. Until a track decides to have both Poly and Dirt, instead of replacing dirt with poly, it most definitely is a dirt replacement surface.
I watch races like a hawk, I have to, and I know what I'm seeing.
When this stuff first was put in place I WANTED to like it and find edges for handicapping it.
It didn't take long for me to see that unlike dirt(confirmed by the email posted on the other thread by an asst/exercise rider and about 20 folks I've spoken to), that many horses simply hate it and refuse to try.
These bombs who don't figure aren't usually winning because they love it, they are winning because other horses are simply not putting out on it and refuse to try.
I've called Turfway the "parade grounds" since they got this stuff because thats what the races look like. Woodbine has been even worse!!!
You watch these races and they almost never unfold like dirt races with contested paces. They get extremely strung out like a parade, and down the stretch only 1-2 horses are actually moving on it.
It pains me to notbe able to bet a great meet like Keeneland, but there simply isn't any way anyone can bet anything with conviction. You have no idea how they will run on it. Joels theory of only taking 5-1 or better is pretty good, but I'd go so far as to say 10-1. Just look at last Saturday's results in the 5 stakes races on Ky Cup day.
Whats gonna happen is that after this meet, trainers who have run their horses on the stuff who run poorly will simply avoid it like the plague.
I'm all for keeping horses sound and uninjured, no doubt. Anyone whose ever watched training and heard the sickening crack and seen one go down will tell you that you just wanna vomit, for real.
But this past meet at the Spa they ordered the super to have a huge cushion and deeper surface. It worked spendidly and trainers loved it.
Horses are always gonna break down, Johnny V was injured after a grass race, and we all know about Horatio, and about Funfair in the Cup last year.
Its simply unavoidable.
Darrell Vienna in Cali told the DRF reporter that he couldn't understand why they had to install poly. He asked aloud why they coldn't just have a deeper and safer dirt surface.
Thats the very same question that more than one trainer and owner has asked aloud when speaking about it.
I'd like to know why myself, but I already know the answer, theres not as much money in marketing dirt.

[oracle80]

Do you really think Premium Tap would have lost if he hadn't lost his momentum on the turn?
Sightseek do you really believe that Premium Tap would have been that far behind on dirt? HUH?!!!! Look at his running style Seek!! hes a very fast horse who had drawn the rail. He wasn't handling or displaying his typical speed on that surface.
Do you really believe that ball Four is within 10 lengths of those horses on the finish line on dirt?!!!!!!!!!:eek:

[Cunningham Racing]

I predict there will be some very distinct happenings during this KEE meet that will have people scratching their heads trying to understand it.....I wouldn't lay odds on ANY jockey to win the riding title and I certainly think the trainer title is up in the air......hell, Robby Albarado and Bernie Flint could have as much shot as Leparoux/Pletcher :D ...just saying...its realsitic to me...

[Cajungator26]

Do you really think it would have been that close if they weren't running on Poly?

Oracle pointed out that the charts from KY Cup Day, had 3 horses that lost footing, hmm, sounds like they didn't like the surface...

My horse had the same problem SHOW JUMPING on the stuff. For some reason, he would slip very easily if the surface wasn't dragged on a regular basis, where as he never had that kind of problem on grass or clay.

[Cunningham Racing]

Do you really think Premium Tap would have lost if he hadn't lost his momentum on the turn?

The bottomline is that he was beaten by many horses in the race...

[Sightseek]

Do you really think it would have been that close if they weren't running on Poly?

Oracle pointed out that the charts from KY Cup Day, had 3 horses that lost footing, hmm, sounds like they didn't like the surface...

You got me there, but I was simply pointing out that the best horse still would have won had he not stumbled on the turn.

I've since tossed my PP's, but I do recall Ball Four being relatively equal with the rest of the field save Premium Tap. 5 months off was a concern but he had the poly form going for him....you'd think you all would be happy that you could have cashed on a Stakes that brought a price! I'm definitely not a good handicapper, but even I saw that it came down to two horses; Premium Tap & Ball Four so I do think these claims of the surface being un-cappable is a bit premature.

[oracle80]

My horse had the same problem SHOW JUMPING on the stuff. For some reason, he would slip very easily if the surface wasn't dragged on a regular basis, where as he never had that kind of problem on grass or clay.
Funny that you mention it Cajun!! Many seem to slip at the start and crash the gate, I've never seen anything like it. And we even had a buck jumper.
Heres some chart calls and comments from Kentucky Cup day, all verifiable at www.equibase.com under full charts section.

Race 1- Dancing Skeeanno - hopped Start

Race 4- Shot Gun Cliff- lost footing after start
Base Commander- hit gate start

Race 7- Cognac Kisses- broke in the air
Lucky Savannah- stumbled after start

Race 9- Hey Bill- hit gate start

race 10- Natalicat- buck jumped

[oracle80]

You got me there, but I was simply pointing out that the best horse still would have won had he not stumbled on the turn.

I've since tossed my PP's, but I do recall Ball Four being relatively equal with the rest of the field save Premium Tap. 5 months off was a concern but he had the poly form going for him....you'd think you all would be happy that you could have cashed on a Stakes that brought a price! I'm definitely not a good handicapper, but even I saw that it came down to two horses; Premium Tap & Ball Four so I do think these claims of the surface being un-cappable is a bit premature.

Right, so all we need now is Dionne Warwick's pyshic hotline to tell us in advance who will hate the stuff, and play the other contenders.

[SniperSB23]

You got me there, but I was simply pointing out that the best horse still would have won had he not stumbled on the turn.

I've since tossed my PP's, but I do recall Ball Four being relatively equal with the rest of the field save Premium Tap. 5 months off was a concern but he had the poly form going for him....you'd think you all would be happy that you could have cashed on a Stakes that brought a price! I'm definitely not a good handicapper, but even I saw that it came down to two horses; Premium Tap & Ball Four so I do think these claims of the surface being un-cappable is a bit premature.

I assume the Beyers must have painted a different story considering the odds but on the equibase figures Ball Four looked very competitive in that field.

[oracle80]

I assume the Beyers must have painted a different story considering the odds but on the equibase figures Ball Four looked very competitive in that field.
Yeah i always love middle echelon horses taking on horses who have on or placed in Grade Ones this year, especially when they figure to have to duel outside a horse coming off a grade one win at the Spa who has drawn the rail.:rolleyes:
He could only be used off the the fact that he had won and placed in his two poly starts.
Are you honestly telling me that Ball Four cold beat Premium Tap on any dirt surface in America?

[Sightseek]

Right, so all we need now is Dionne Warwick's pyshic hotline to tell us in advance who will hate the stuff, and play the other contenders.

:p Smart Azz!

Have you noticed if a lot of the horses that have been doing well have turfy pedigrees?

[blackthroatedwind]

The bottomline is that he was beaten by many horses in the race...


No, Joel, that is NOT the " bottom line ".

The " bottom line " in that race, regarding Premium Tap, is that with a competent rider/ride he would not have been beaten by ANY horses in that race.

Bad example.

[Sightseek]

No, Joel, that is NOT the " bottom line ".

The " bottom line " in that race, regarding Premium Tap, is that with a competent rider/ride he would not have been beaten by ANY horses in that race.

Bad example.

Thank you! :)

[oracle80]

:p Smart Azz!

Have you noticed if a lot of the horses that have been doing well have turfy pedigrees?

Yeah I've noticed that as well as every trainer noticing it.
You have to understand that this stuff was conceived by Euros who were trying to come up with a surface for tbreds to train on in the winter months over there. And what do all of their tbreds run on? Why turf of course. They were looking for an artifical surface that could simulate grass to train on. Its not very shocking that turf horses like it.

[SniperSB23]

Yeah i always love middle echelon horses taking on horses who have on or placed in Grade Ones this year, especially when they figure to have to duel outside a horse coming off a grade one win at the Spa who has drawn the rail.:rolleyes:
He could only be used off the the fact that he had won and placed in his two poly starts.
Are you honestly telling me that Ball Four cold beat Premium Tap on any dirt surface in America?

Could he beat Premium Tap on the dirt? Absolutely, Premium Tap isn't the type that is guaranteed to fire every time out. That being said on a dirt surface Premium Tap would beat him 8 out of 10 times. However on the equibase figures Ball Four looked really competitive in the field and we had absolutely no clue how Premium Tap woud take to the surface so Ball Four was an absolute steal at double digit odds. I'm sorry you didn't bet him but the idea of you telling me that I'm an idiot for winning money off of him is absolutely ridiculous. If you bet the chalk in his first start on polytrack coming off the race of his life with Kent D aboard then you deserved to lose.

[oracle80]

No, Joel, that is NOT the " bottom line ".

The " bottom line " in that race, regarding Premium Tap, is that with a competent rider/ride he would not have been beaten by ANY horses in that race.

Bad example.

Hows the example of Cohiba Miss wiring the field in the Juvenile Fillies race and drawing off by 3 1/4 lengths?
Did anyone see her previous races? Are you kidding me?
Thats a textbook case of one horse handling the surface and the others just not.
If all races were run like that one, I'd quit playing the game.

[oracle80]

Could he beat Premium Tap on the dirt? Absolutely, Premium Tap isn't the type that is guaranteed to fire every time out. That being said on a dirt surface Premium Tap would beat him 8 out of 10 times. However on the equibase figures Ball Four looked really competitive in the field and we had absolutely no clue how Premium Tap woud take to the surface so Ball Four was an absolute steal at double digit odds. I'm sorry you didn't bet him but the idea of you telling me that I'm an idiot for winning money off of him is absolutely ridiculous. If you bet the chalk in his first start on polytrack coming off the race of his life with Kent D aboard then you deserved to lose.
I already said I didn't bet a penny on the races that day. So trying to paint me as a bitter gambler is way off base.
Tell you what Sniper. Those two ever hook up again on the dirt, and they may in the Clark, I'll give you 10-1 on Ball Four finishing ahead of him ok?
Since you said you think he'd only win 8 outta 10, that means that you think the odds of ball Four beating him are one outta 5. I'm willing to give you twice that. We on? I don't care if the bet is your one dollar vs my ten bucks just to prove a point. We on?

[Sightseek]

Hows the example of Cohiba Miss wiring the field in the Juvenile Fillies race and drawing off by 3 1/4 lengths?
Did anyone see her previous races? Are you kidding me?
Thats a textbook case of one horse handling the surface and the others just not.
If all races were run like that one, I'd quit playing the game.

Maybe this is a stupid question, but I'm putting it out there anyway; how is that much different than a horse who is very specific to a particular dirt track?

[SniperSB23]

I already said I didn't bet a penny on the races that day. So trying to paint me as a bitter gambler is way off base.
Tell you what Sniper. Those two ever hook up again on the dirt, and they may in the Clark, I'll give you 10-1 on Ball Four finishing ahead of him ok?
Since you said you think he'd only win 8 outta 10, that means that you think the odds of ball Four beating him are one outta 5. I'm willing to give you twice that. We on? I don't care if the bet is your one dollar vs my ten bucks just to prove a point. We on?

Sure, I'll bet $1 against $10 that Ball Four finishes ahead of him. Ball Four doesn't stand a chance in hell in winning the Clark but he certainly has better than a 1 in 10 shot of finishing ahead of Premium Tap.

[oracle80]

Maybe this is a stupid question, but I'm putting it out there anyway; how is that much different than a horse who is very specific to a particular dirt track?
Seek I just don't see that very often. I mean you can point to Silver Train but the fact is that he did win impressively at saratoga as a two year old.
Horses don't tend to just jump up huge on a particular dirt surface.
More importantly, while some horses will run a length or two faster at a particular track, its a much more subtle improvement and even more importantly how many horses do you see who win at say Belmont and run 90 Beyers who go to Aqueduct and run 60's or 70's? I can count those I've seen in my life on two hands, maybe one hand.
We all know about John's Call and Fourstardave loving the Spa, buts thats two horses in 20 years, and its not like they never won elsewhere.
Its not about whos moving up on it, its about how many move way down on it. Simple logic when looking at figs tells me that so many just flat out cant run on it.
Lawyer Ron couldnt get within double digits on it, lol. Lemons Forever ran 4th in a cheap stakes race on the stuff and all she did was come back and win the Ky oaks. They just wouldn't put out on it, to name just two of many.

[blackthroatedwind]

Hey, I'm reticent to bet Polytrack, but using an example of a 2YO filly winning a weak race where nobody had run many races is hardly strong.

I did handicap the other stakes thoroughly and the sprint winner was hardly impossible, the race was wide open, and the two supposedly good Polytrack horses did nothing. I preferred the second horse and had Desormeaux not butchered him, check out that ride, he would have won. The Distaff race was won by a hard horse but only because of the distance and I have a hard time buying Polytrack caused a horse to win at 1 1/16th that appears to barely want 7F. It's not as though she was carried along on the front end. Her numbers were easily good enough to win it was really just a distance question. The second finisher, La Reason, was to me the most logical horse and she performed pretty much the same on polytrack as she does on dirt ( i.e. once again not quite good enough to win ). The 2YO colt race was a total crapshoot and the winner exited a prep where an argument could have been made that he performed best that day and only Saturday's post hindered him. In other words there was really no particularly logical result in that race.

What I'm basically saying is that in order to dismiss polytrack as unplayable, and believe me I'm as skeptical as anyone, we should at least watch this Keeneland meet seriously. And I don't want to hear any of that " oh, God, there's a 7500 claimer in the second race on opening day! " because I would bet a lot of money they are using pretty much the same book they use every year. This is Keeneland in the Fall, not the Spring, and yes they run claimers at Keeneland all the time....even cheap ones. Let's keep our eye on the ball and certainly not use polytrack as yet another reason we just can't win.

[blackthroatedwind]

Seek I just don't see that very often. I mean you can point to Silver Train but the fact is that he did win impressively at saratoga as a two year old.




Come on, he caught the goldest of gold rails that day.

[oracle80]

Come on, he caught the goldest of gold rails that day.
Yes he did, he caught a conveyor belt. But it was indeed a good field. and yes I realize that Sun King wasn't fully cranked that day.

[Sightseek]

Seek I just don't see that very often. I mean you can point to Silver Train but the fact is that he did win impressively at saratoga as a two year old.
Horses don't tend to just jump up huge on a particular dirt surface.
More importantly, while some horses will run a length or two faster at a particular track, its a much more subtle improvement and even more importantly how many horses do you see who win at say Belmont and run 90 Beyers who go to Aqueduct and run 60's or 70's? I can count those I've seen in my life on two hands, maybe one hand.
We all know about John's Call and Fourstardave loving the Spa, buts thats two horses in 20 years, and its not like they never won elsewhere.
Its not about whos moving up on it, its about how many move way down on it. Simple logic when looking at figs tells me that so many just flat out cant run on it.
Lawyer Ron couldnt get within double digits on it, lol. Lemons Forever ran 4th in a cheap stakes race on the stuff and all she did was come back and win the Ky oaks. They just wouldn't put out on it, to name just two of many.

Very good points, especially the highlighted....I guess I'm more optimistic about it because of the benefits to the physical being of the horse. I do like the challenge it brings in capping also, I'm a small better, so the bigger prices is a huge bonus. :)

[oracle80]

Very good points, especially the highlighted....I guess I'm more optimistic about it because of the benefits to the physical being of the horse. I do like the challenge it brings in capping also, I'm a small better, so the bigger prices is a huge bonus. :)

No question that for one dollar spread out players in gimmicks like pik-3's and tri's that you might be able to get lucky and catch a big one.
But for guys who like to make larger win bets or exactas, you'd have to be insane to make a 200 straight exacta on this stuff. May as well just drop it in the Salvation Army bucket on the way in and turn around and go home and save the admission cost.

[Pedigree Ann]

They got beat by BALL FOUR!!!...Yeah, thats right..I said BALL FOUR beat them!!!

And Ball Four had won at the distance on the track coming off a similar layoff in the spring. Like Skimming loved Del Mar and Silver Train loves Belmont, Ball Four loves Turfway. Yes, I picked Ball Four as a likely winner, had him in the Public Handicapper contest. Local specialists have beaten big name shippers in the past, you know.

[eurobounce]

I will be surprised if the handle is up and 13% is pretty....ambitious?

I am on the fence but I think the least we can do is pay careful attention and even though I don't plan on betting much, especially early, it is the first good test, at least for me, for polytrack and trying to handicap it.

My gut feeling is that it won't be significantly different but the randomness factor feels like it will increase. If nothing else, I can refute Biancone who told me 95% of horses will perform the same on Polytrack as dirt. I find that hard to believe but he knows better than I do...at least at this point.

One of the joys of handicapping and playing the horses is the adventure and since Polytrack is here, and probably will be appearing at more tracks, it's time to give it a whirl....if not for money then for sport.13% is pretty ambitious, but I dont think it is not possible. I am also a little cautious when Biacone says his horses will perform on dirt just as they do on PolyTrack. But to me, handicapping and figuring out how to handicap different surfaces, tracks etc etc is what makes this sport great. I look forward to see top class horses compete at PolyTrack.

[oracle80]

13% is pretty ambitious, but I dont think it is not possible. I am also a little cautious when Biacone says his horses will perform on dirt just as they do on PolyTrack. But to me, handicapping and figuring out how to handicap different surfaces, tracks etc etc is what makes this sport great. I look forward to see top class horses compete at PolyTrack.
Just make sure and wake me up when a top class horse wins on polytrack and replicates his dirt form.
After Ball Four, Ghetto, Cohiba, Reigning Court, and BB, lol, I'm not holding my breath.

[Cunningham Racing]

No, Joel, that is NOT the " bottom line ".

The " bottom line " in that race, regarding Premium Tap, is that with a competent rider/ride he would not have been beaten by ANY horses in that race.

Bad example.

His paycheck was fourth place money....say what you will, he ran fourth...I agree he got a bad ride but thats racing...who knows what would have happened had he gotten through (I thought there was a hole for him and he chickened out to be honest with you and it close through ggod race riding)...yes, he lost a few lengths but I'm not going to annoint ANY horse in the winner's circle on Polytrack just because I thought they had a bad ride and MAY have been best.....who knows, I've seen MANY big middle moves or blow-ups on the far turn on that surface where you are just sure a horse is going to win and then they flatten out....that surface is too hard to figure out for anybody to come on here and say that Premium Tap was the winner with a clean trip...maybe on dirt, but not that crap...I really believe that..

..Oh, and its not like hes a world beater and we can make a case that he was POUNDS the best because he wasn't pounds the best coming in....he barely beat Second of June last out for Gods sake...:rolleyes:

Again, thye point is that Poltrack ruins the stakes program at tracks because shippers are at a HUGE disadvantage.....check out all of the stakes run last weekend and the Lane's End result earlier this year.....I've never seen so many longshots win in my life, and likewise I've nevere seen so many horses run horrible who had great dirt form coming in.....

[eurobounce]

Up 13%, how did you ever arrive at that number, I love it when people throw up nonsensical things..

Kycherub strikes again...I arrived at the number from reading the minutes of their meetings. I also arrived at that number based on conversations from Turfway Executives that sit on the Keeneland board. I didnt just randomly throw out a number. Keeneland has very very lofty expectations for this fall meet.

[eurobounce]

Their handle goes way down, no way does it go up. And oh, ummm, how did Turfway end up this past meet. A certain liar on this board was talking about how much they were gonna be up, etc. Guys an exposed liar.Dont know how Turfway ended up, they dont have the final numbers. And how can someone who makes a prediction be a liar!!!. A prediction is a guess--that person was just wrong.

[Cunningham Racing]

Maybe this is a stupid question, but I'm putting it out there anyway; how is that much different than a horse who is very specific to a particular dirt track?

The bottomline is that its not a 'dirt alternative'...its Polytrack...not dirt or even close to dirt other than its tan in color....it might as well be called a 'turf alternative' too....

Its not dirt...its not turf...it is rubber and it is very soft and cushiony....imagine runnnig on the road, and then running on the grass....and now imagine running on a bed mattress....it is DIFFERENT....different horses with different bulids get over it just like turf horses are bred to handle the grass with their big, dish feet and high action to easily pick their feet up out of the tall grass...

It is all BIOMECHANICS.....good dirt horses usually like a 'fast' surface - like a road....when you have that much bounce and cushion in the Poltrack it changes the entire feel for the horse and the entire way a horse has to adjust his echanics to compensate for the spring and cushion in the track....

Think about it for a second......MANY Throughbreds that are great dirt actors love to 'hear their feet rattle' - to use an old expression.....this stuff is too boyant and bouncy....Believe me, I collected about 5 pounds of it when was at Turfway earlier this year and I walked over the track for a half a mile studying it....it is NOT a dirt alternative...no way, no how...

Mark my words when I tell you that if this track is instituted everywhere, it will change the way we breed horses today....Horses like A.P. Indy and Storm Cat would NOT be leading sires on this surface....they pass on breeding to be superior on dirt, not rubber....who knows, horse like Lemon Drop Kid could be the next great stallion if he passes down the mechanics to his progeny to be top class on the rubber.....

It is VERY discouraging for a traditionalist in this sport because I understand the deeper effects that it will have on our game and IT WILL CHANGE THE BREED...I, for one, don't like the fact that we are essentially inventing a new surface which will invent a new way to breed horses and change the roots of our successful and classical bloodlines going forward...

[Five Star Derek]

Derek, I know a lotta players. Guys who really send it in, whales so to speak. None of em I know wants to touch betting this stuff.
I love to play, really love to. So when I say I won't play a particular surface its a bold statement.
I know that Turfway's everyday cards are very cheap and not good to make comparisons on. But if you look at the three big days they've had there since the stuff was put in last fall, you'll see that none of these horses who won ever came back and did squat, other than High Cotton who is the polytrack poster child(and man thats not saying a whole damn lot).
With A City couldn't beat me across the street and he won a biggie.
Check out the winners on Ky Cup day in the 5 stakes in 2005, then check out Lanes End day earlier this year, the winners have never replicated any dirt form ever afterwards. Then the other day was just a disgrace. Flint's filly couldn't go 5f and she airs going two turns. Anyone wanan take bets on how Reigning Court comes back in stakes races on dirt? Etc.
The problem with this stuff is that regardless of what anyone tells you its a dirt replacement surface. Anyone who tries to tell its not is smoking something pretty strong. Until a track decides to have both Poly and Dirt, instead of replacing dirt with poly, it most definitely is a dirt replacement surface.
I watch races like a hawk, I have to, and I know what I'm seeing.
When this stuff first was put in place I WANTED to like it and find edges for handicapping it.
It didn't take long for me to see that unlike dirt(confirmed by the email posted on the other thread by an asst/exercise rider and about 20 folks I've spoken to), that many horses simply hate it and refuse to try.
These bombs who don't figure aren't usually winning because they love it, they are winning because other horses are simply not putting out on it and refuse to try.
I've called Turfway the "parade grounds" since they got this stuff because thats what the races look like. Woodbine has been even worse!!!
You watch these races and they almost never unfold like dirt races with contested paces. They get extremely strung out like a parade, and down the stretch only 1-2 horses are actually moving on it.
It pains me to notbe able to bet a great meet like Keeneland, but there simply isn't any way anyone can bet anything with conviction. You have no idea how they will run on it. Joels theory of only taking 5-1 or better is pretty good, but I'd go so far as to say 10-1. Just look at last Saturday's results in the 5 stakes races on Ky Cup day.
Whats gonna happen is that after this meet, trainers who have run their horses on the stuff who run poorly will simply avoid it like the plague.
I'm all for keeping horses sound and uninjured, no doubt. Anyone whose ever watched training and heard the sickening crack and seen one go down will tell you that you just wanna vomit, for real.
But this past meet at the Spa they ordered the super to have a huge cushion and deeper surface. It worked spendidly and trainers loved it.
Horses are always gonna break down, Johnny V was injured after a grass race, and we all know about Horatio, and about Funfair in the Cup last year.
Its simply unavoidable.
Darrell Vienna in Cali told the DRF reporter that he couldn't understand why they had to install poly. He asked aloud why they coldn't just have a deeper and safer dirt surface.
Thats the very same question that more than one trainer and owner has asked aloud when speaking about it.
I'd like to know why myself, but I already know the answer, theres not as much money in marketing dirt.
You offer very compelling information. I just hope you're wrong. Keeneland is the first track that I follow that has installed Poytrack so I have no basis to go on from a handicapping standpoint. This is distressing to me if this turns out to be true.

Dirt tracks have turned out to be a scapegoat for what I consider poor training. In all facets of life people are looking for that magic pill that will solve all their problems. Some people seem to want to sell Polytrack as such a thing. Your right about being there to see a horse break down on the track. There's nothing to describe the sick feeling you feel inside. Obviously these things happen where it's nothing but misfortunate. I think there are other times where it happens and the trainer is quick to blame the track deflecting attention away from himself. It would be nice to see tracks deepen the surface like you mentioned at the Spa. My concern is that people will push for legislation that states all tracks must have a Polytrack type surface.

[oracle80]

Dont know how Turfway ended up, they dont have the final numbers. And how can someone who makes a prediction be a liar!!!. A prediction is a guess--that person was just wrong.
You tell us you have no vested interest in this stuff, yet you consistently shill it. I respect anyone's right to privacy, I really do. But you telling us that you are seeking out Biancone to ask him questions on the backside, reading minutes of a Keeneland meeting, and the funniest was when I caught you(and several people noted it to me in pm's saying good work) telling us how Turfway's handle was up opening day when it hadnt been announced to anyone yet what the handle even was. Your explanation whne I pointed this out was that you had spoken to the mutuel guy about it.
Look, I respect your right to be anonymous and not tell us who you are, but there isn't any way that you don't have some sort of vested interest in Turfway or keeneland or polytrack. NONE!
Do you honestly expect us to believe that Turfway's mutuel guy will just give out info not realeased to the public on handle to anyone.
If I called Turfway now and asked for the mutuel guy to give the meet end stats that havent been realeased yet do you think he would give them to me? How about if RandallScott or PointG called?
You are asking me to believe that you have no connection to Kee/TP/Poly and yet have information on handle and minutes of a meeting that public doesn't get.
Please stop insulting my intelligence ok? and everyone elses. You are shilling for everything they do on here, and attempting to tell us that you have no vested interest and are just a casual fan. Sorry, but a blind man could see thats not the case.

[Pointg5]

The bottomline is that its not a 'dirt alternative'...its Polytrack...not dirt or even close to dirt other than its tan in color....it might as well be called a 'turf alternative' too....

Its not dirt...its not turf...it is rubber and it is very soft and cushiony....imagine runnnig on the road, and then running on the grass....and now imagine running on a bed mattress....it is DIFFERENT....different horses with different bulids get over it just like turf horses are bred to handle the grass with their big, dish feet and high action to easily pick their feet up out of the tall grass...

It is all BIOMECHANICS.....good dirt horses usually like a 'fast' surface - like a road....when you have that much bounce and cushion in the Poltrack it changes the entire feel for the horse and the entire way a horse has to adjust his echanics to compensate for the spring and cushion in the track....

Think about it for a second......MANY Throughbreds that are great dirt actors love to 'hear their feet rattle' - to use an old expression.....this stuff is too boyant and bouncy....Believe me, I collected about 5 pounds of it when was at Turfway earlier this year and I walked over the track for a half a mile studying it....it is NOT a dirt alternative...no way, no how...

Mark my words when I tell you that if this track is instituted everywhere, it will change the way we breed horses today....Horses like A.P. Indy and Storm Cat would NOT be leading sires on this surface....they pass on breeding to be superior on dirt, not rubber....who knows, horse like Lemon Drop Kid could be the next great stallion if he passes down the mechanics to his progeny to be top class on the rubber.....

It is VERY discouraging for a traditionalist in this sport because I understand the deeper effects that it will have on our game and IT WILL CHANGE THE BREED...I, for one, don't like the fact that we are essentially inventing a new surface which will invent a new way to breed horses and change the roots of our successful and classical bloodlines going forward...

Excellent Post!

Only question and this is just for my knowledge. What does "hear their feet rattle" mean?

[eurobounce]

You tell us you have no vested interest in this stuff, yet you consistently shill it. I respect anyone's right to privacy, I really do. But you telling us that you are seeking out Biancone to ask him questions on the backside, reading minutes of a Keeneland meeting, and the funniest was when I caught you(and several people noted it to me in pm's saying good work) telling us how Turfway's handle was up opening day when it hadnt been announced to anyone yet what the handle even was. Your explanation whne I pointed this out was that you had spoken to the mutuel guy about it.
Look, I respect your right to be anonymous and not tell us who you are, but there isn't any way that you don't have some sort of vested interest in Turfway or keeneland or polytrack. NONE!
Do you honestly expect us to believe that Turfway's mutuel guy will just give out info not realeased to the public on handle to anyone.
If I called Turfway now and asked for the mutuel guy to give the meet end stats that havent been realeased yet do you think he would give them to me? How about if RandallScott or PointG called?
You are asking me to believe that you have no connection to Kee/TP/Poly and yet have information on handle and minutes of a meeting that public doesn't get.
Please stop insulting my intelligence ok? and everyone elses. You are shilling for everything they do on here, and attempting to tell us that you have no vested interest and are just a casual fan. Sorry, but a blind man could see thats not the case.Seriously, I have zero vested interest in PolyTrack, Turfway or Keeneland. Just like in any sport you form relationships. Those relationships are based on trust. I just happen to know some people who work for Turfway and Keeneland. I love for my horse to train or the PolyTrack surface, but I dont think she races over the surface very well. She prefers a turf. The reason why I talk to Biacone and his assistant is because his bard is right next to the barn where my horse is stabled at Turfway. We have also talked about soccer, baseball and the weather. It isnt always about PolyTrack.

[Pedigree Ann]

Just make sure and wake me up when a top class horse wins on polytrack and replicates his dirt form.
After Ball Four, Ghetto, Cohiba, Reigning Court, and BB, lol, I'm not holding my breath.

The 2yo races were unpredictable because the horses running in them were lightly raced and most were trying a new distance, and around two turns, for the first time. The most fancied runners in the filly and mare race (Prospective Saint, Splendid Blended) looked like they would be gasping for air at the 8th pole - Polytrack does seem to demand more stamina than many surfaces. The mare race winner hadn't tried 2 turns in a very long while (at least 2 years), her pedigree said she should like it, and her form this year was decent in sprints. And the sprint winner had become a different horse with Douglas up; his form was was no worse than most in the field - a mdn win and a n1x win. These fields were not filled with established top class horses to begin with.

[oracle80]

Randall or Derek or PointG do me a favor ok? get on the horn with Turfway and ask for their mutuel department, tell em you are just a casual race fan with a curiosity about it(which in itself would be considered vey strange if you don't have a vested interest in it). lemme know how fast the guy gives you the stats.
Look Euro, I like you, but the shows over. You obviously do indeed have a vested interest in either the tracks, the surfaces, or both. And i don't care who you are, I'd just appreciate it if you stopped insulting our intelligence as if we were all complete morons who had no idea that you do.

[2MinsToPost]

Excellent Post!

Only question and this is just for my knowledge. What does "hear their feet rattle" mean?

Ditto. Well written and provided me with a whole new perspective.

[oracle80]

Ditto. Well written and provided me with a whole new perspective.

Many horses like running on firm turf or firm dirt surfaces. Hence the term "hearing their feet rattle". Not every horse is as brave as others. When they run on footing that is unsure, they don't try their best.
Its why on soft turf courses that form changes and the races often get strung out with many stragglers in the rear obviously not trying(ahem, ahem, cough cough cough POLYTRACK!).

[Pointg5]

Randall or Derek or PointG do me a favor ok? get on the horn with Turfway and ask for their mutuel department, tell em you are just a casual race fan with a curiosity about it(which in itself would be considered vey strange if you don't have a vested interest in it). lemme know how fast the guy gives you the stats.
Look Euro, I like you, but the shows over. You obviously do indeed have a vested interest in either the tracks, the surfaces, or both. And i don't care who you are, I'd just appreciate it if you stopped insulting our intelligence as if we were all complete morons who had no idea that you do.

I'll call at lunch, it's local for me...

[eurobounce]

Randall or Derek or PointG do me a favor ok? get on the horn with Turfway and ask for their mutuel department, tell em you are just a casual race fan with a curiosity about it(which in itself would be considered vey strange if you don't have a vested interest in it). lemme know how fast the guy gives you the stats.
Look Euro, I like you, but the shows over. You obviously do indeed have a vested interest in either the tracks, the surfaces, or both. And i don't care who you are, I'd just appreciate it if you stopped insulting our intelligence as if we were all complete morons who had no idea that you do.Again, I dont have a vested interest. I dont know how I can make that any clearer. I was a tires salesmen, a tire store owner and soon a college student again. I no zero interest in investing my money in something that I dont know much about. That isnt good business.

[oracle80]

I'll call at lunch, it's local for me...
Yeah just tell them you want the meet figures on handle before they release them to the public and shareholders. If he asks who you are just tell em a casual race fan with an interest in it. Lemme know how it goes. This shouldn't be any problem whatsoever as Euro was given the info on opening day handle and posted how much it was up before it was given to the public or listed on equibase, etc.
I'm sure they just give that info out to anyone.

[oracle80]

Again, I dont have a vested interest. I dont know how I can make that any clearer. I was a tires salesmen, a tire store owner and soon a college student again. I no zero interest in investing my money in something that I dont know much about. That isnt good business.

Ok, assuming thats true, why the cheerleading and shilling for tracks and a surface that you have no vested interest in?

[eurobounce]

Ok, assuming thats true, why the cheerleading and shilling for tracks and a surface that you have no vested interest in?I also cheer for Saratoga, Belmont and I wager most of my dollars in Cali tracks. I have been touting Oct 7th as the best day of racing for almost two months and I also boost how great of a card Belmont has that day.

[Pedigree Ann]

The reason tracks are installing artificial surfaces instead of better dirt tracks is maintenance costs. A good, deep dirt track that is properly banked on the turns takes a lot of care - to keep the cushion from migrating to the rail on the turns (gravity), to keep it at the right density by harrowing water into it, to keep it from becoming a quagmire in rain or a skating rink in cold. This means a lot of workers and a lot of equipment. Track managers are counting the beans and see that a surface that only needs occasional harrowing will save them beaucoup bucks. The cheap and easy way to keep horses from breaking down more often, as opposed to what we traditionalists would call the right way.

[oracle80]

The reason tracks are installing artificial surfaces instead of better dirt tracks in maintenance costs. A good, deep dirt track that is properly banked on the turns takes a lot of care - to keep the cushion from migrating to the rail on the turns (gravity), to keep it at the right density by harrowing water into it, to keep it from becoming a quagmire in rain or a skating rink in cold. This means a lot of workers and a lot of equipment. Track managers are counting the beans and see that a surface that only needs occasional harrowing will save them beaucoup bucks. The cheap and easy way to keep horses from breaking down more often, as opposed to what we traditionalists would call the right way.
yeah God Forbid you use long gallops with occasional works not tilted towards seeing how fast the horse can possibly go every 7 days. Shoot if people did that, they might have sounder horses and win more races. Can't have that now can we.

[Round Pen]

yeah God Forbid you use long gallops with occasional works not tilted towards seeing how fast the horse can possibly go every 7 days. Shoot if people did that, they might have sounder horses and win more races. Can't have that now can we.

:D :D :D :D I like that

[Cunningham Racing]

Excellent Post!

Only question and this is just for my knowledge. What does "hear their feet rattle" mean?

It is a phrase regarding horses that love hard and fast dirt tracks - which many of them do....again, its like running on a road or dirt path....yes, they are more hard on the bones because the surface is much tighter and the concussion is greater, but this is how we've bred and run horses for over a hundred years in America.....sires like Storm Cat ad A.P. indy are successful because they were bred to be superior over this hard, firm surface that is dirt...their genetic makeup and genetic biomechanics are fit to be the premier dirt horses in the world.....now on Polytrack we may see horses like Storm Cat become obsolete because the genetics of that lines may not like a softer surface that is more tiring, etc....I realize that mayu be an overdramatic statement, but there WILL be some significant changes to the game we've grown to love through hundreds of years of traditionif we install Polytrack everywhere.....

[oracle80]

:D :D :D :D I like that

You are in good company then Round Pen. Frankel and Dutrow like that as well.

[oracle80]

It is a phrase regarding horses that love hard and fast dirt tracks - which many of them do....again, its like running on a road or dirt path....yes, they are more hard on the bones because the surface is much tighter and the concussion is greater, but this is how we've bred and run horses for over a hundred years in America.....sires like Storm Cat ad A.P. indy are successful because they were bred to be superior over this hard, firm surface that is dirt...their genetic makeup and genetic biomechanics are fit to be the premier dirt horses in the world.....now on Polytrack we may see horses like Storm Cat become obsolete because the genetics of that lines may not like a softer surface that is more tiring, etc....I realize that mayu be an overdramatic statement, but there WILL be some significant changes to the game we've grown to love through hundreds of years of traditionif we install Polytrack everywhere.....


You mean evolution and breeding hasn't been geared towards ground up tires covered with wax. I'm absolutely ****ing shocked.:eek:

[Cunningham Racing]

You mean evolution and breeding hasn't been geared towards ground up tires covered with wax. I'm absolutely ****ing shocked.:eek:

Exactly, but you have to talk about the Polytrack issue wearing kitten gloves because of all of the horses that are breaking down on dirt....I love the quick fix it provides to the health of the horse and the quick fix it provides to the entry box for racetracks to make them more money by having a BIGGER card to bet (but ironically, a decievingly worse ad more confusing card to bet for the handicapper), but I DO NOT like the fact that it will change the game in MORE ASPECTS THAN THE AVERAGE HORSE AN REALIZES!!!

I look at it like this:

Yes, I'm sad to see Barbaro break down on dirt, but it would be a greater shame in my opinion if Barbaro was never realized as a good horse had he had to run on Polytrack his whole life, because you never know...he might hae HATED it and just been another 'horse' - and not the Barbaro we grew to love by his turf and dirt efforts.....just saying..

The Polytrack will bring different kinds of champions, but I'll always question in the back of my mind how good a champion on Polytrack really is if he had to run on dirt...

Remember, horses are wild animals that learned how to run and be superior athletes in the natural environs of the planet - mostly consisting of GRASS pasteurs or DIRT trails....

God didn't make them to run on rubber tires and fibers covered in wax.....thats just my opinion though

[Cajungator26]

Exactly, but you have to talk about the Polytrack issue wearing kitten gloves because of all of the horses that are breaking down on dirt....I love the quick fix it provides to the health of the horse and the quick fix it provides to the entry box for racetracks to make them more money by having a BIGGER card to bet (but ironically, a decievingly worse ad more confusing card to bet for the handicapper), but I DO NOT like the fact that it will change the game in MORE ASPECTS THAN THE AVERAGE HORSE AN REALIZES!!!

I look at it like this:

Yes, I'm sad to see Barbaro break down on dirt, but it would be a greater shame in my opinion if Barbaro was never realized as a good horse had he had to run on Polytrack his whole life, because you never know...he might hae HATED it and just been another 'horse' - and not the Barbaro we grew to love by his turf and dirt efforts.....just saying..

The Polytrack will bring different kinds of champions, but I'll always question in the back of my mind how good a champion on Polytrack really is if he had to run on dirt...

Remember, horses are wild animals that learned how to run and be superior athletes in the natural environs of the planet - mostly consisting of GRASS pasteurs or DIRT trails....

God didn't make them to run on rubber tires and fibers covered in wax.....thats just my opinion though

I agree 100%. I just wish that they could have put down a deeper cushion instead... oh well, my opinion doesn't count for shiat when it comes to this.

[JJP]

AVOID multirace wagers on Polytrack. I've found there will be an occasional race at Turfway that I'll nail. But the increased randomness has made being "right" 3 or 4 races in a row very difficult. Tris and exactas would be preferred over P3s/P4s, IF one chooses to bet on the Polytrack races.

[jpops757]

I have a gr8 idea for a safe track. How about a 6 foot deep river that is 1 mile long and runs in a circle, we can adjust it to flow in any direction and actually adjust its depth between 5 and 7 foot. You might be disapointed in the times and the lack of the better horses adjusting to the surface. One thing for sure, there will be none, Imean zero breakdown, We might suffer a few drownings but a horse will never have a soundness problem. The up keep for this new surface would be no more than the average swimming pool.

[LARHAGE]

Well said...I agree deeply...this is EXACTLY why I am NOT a proponent of Polytrack....many top dirt horses won't act on it...

I still can't see how With a City won the Lane's End earlier this year....he couldn't have won on the dirt if they'd have let him cut through the infield....

This surface WILL change racing and in more negative ways than positive IMO....start taking notes

I think we should give it a chance, at least this time at Keeneland we actually don't know what to expect, as opposed to the usual rail favoring conveyor belt that has plagued that place for years.

I guess the bottom line for me is I'm all for ANYTHING to make it safer on the horses, that's all I really care about in the end.

[Coach Pants]

Could he beat Premium Tap on the dirt? Absolutely, Premium Tap isn't the type that is guaranteed to fire every time out. That being said on a dirt surface Premium Tap would beat him 8 out of 10 times. However on the equibase figures Ball Four looked really competitive in the field and we had absolutely no clue how Premium Tap woud take to the surface so Ball Four was an absolute steal at double digit odds. I'm sorry you didn't bet him but the idea of you telling me that I'm an idiot for winning money off of him is absolutely ridiculous. If you bet the chalk in his first start on polytrack coming off the race of his life with Kent D aboard then you deserved to lose.
Hey no need for rational thinking in handicapping. Shame on you for not picking a dead chalk who went off as a bomb in his last race. It's obvious New York racing is better than any racing in the world. Hell a 40k claimer at Toga should win all of the grade 1's at Keeneland. Hail Saratoga east coast bias!!

[oracle80]

I have a gr8 idea for a safe track. How about a 6 foot deep river that is 1 mile long and runs in a circle, we can adjust it to flow in any direction and actually adjust its depth between 5 and 7 foot. You might be disapointed in the times and the lack of the better horses adjusting to the surface. One thing for sure, there will be none, Imean zero breakdown, We might suffer a few drownings but a horse will never have a soundness problem. The up keep for this new surface would be no more than the average swimming pool.

Lharge, noone wants horses to get hurt but the BUSINESS of horse racing is pretty heavily reliant on wagering to kinda generate minor things like purses.
I've got a great idea Jpops!!!
Go and get us the paperwork to fill out for a patent today!!! YOu can be my partner!! We'll call it pillowtrack. We'll take thousands of pillows and use them as the base. Then we cover the pillow base with a 3 foot layer of feathers.
Sure it will take em 5 minutes to go 6 furlongs. But hey, I'm sure it won't take long to find out who the excellent pillow track stallions are. Injuries will drop down to nothing. And if one falls the jocks will be safe landing on the feathers over the pillow base.
Of course noone will bet the stuff, and tracks will go out of business, but as long as we have a bunch of safe horses thats all that matters!!
Pillow Track!!! A jpops/oracle company bringing the ultimate in safe race track conditions to a track near you!!! Coming soon!!!

[Coach Pants]

You tell us you have no vested interest in this stuff, yet you consistently shill it. I respect anyone's right to privacy, I really do. But you telling us that you are seeking out Biancone to ask him questions on the backside, reading minutes of a Keeneland meeting, and the funniest was when I caught you(and several people noted it to me in pm's saying good work) telling us how Turfway's handle was up opening day when it hadnt been announced to anyone yet what the handle even was. Your explanation whne I pointed this out was that you had spoken to the mutuel guy about it.
Look, I respect your right to be anonymous and not tell us who you are, but there isn't any way that you don't have some sort of vested interest in Turfway or keeneland or polytrack. NONE!
Do you honestly expect us to believe that Turfway's mutuel guy will just give out info not realeased to the public on handle to anyone.
If I called Turfway now and asked for the mutuel guy to give the meet end stats that havent been realeased yet do you think he would give them to me? How about if RandallScott or PointG called?
You are asking me to believe that you have no connection to Kee/TP/Poly and yet have information on handle and minutes of a meeting that public doesn't get.
Please stop insulting my intelligence ok? and everyone elses. You are shilling for everything they do on here, and attempting to tell us that you have no vested interest and are just a casual fan. Sorry, but a blind man could see thats not the case.Don't you have a vested interest in the sport. Do you fear your business declining due to the implementation of polytrack?

[oracle80]

Don't you have a vested interest in the sport. Do you fear your business declining due to the implementation of polytrack?

I think you miss the point Pillow. Many people have a vested interest in the SPORT, which encompasses many things.
I asked if he had a vestetd interest in a specific track or company.

[oracle80]

Lharge, noone wants horses to get hurt but the BUSINESS of horse racing is pretty heavily reliant on wagering to kinda generate minor things like purses.
I've got a great idea Jpops!!!
Go and get us the paperwork to fill out for a patent today!!! YOu can be my partner!! We'll call it pillowtrack. We'll take thousands of pillows and use them as the base. Then we cover the pillow base with a 3 foot layer of feathers.
Sure it will take em 5 minutes to go 6 furlongs. But hey, I'm sure it won't take long to find out who the excellent pillow track stallions are. Injuries will drop down to nothing. And if one falls the jocks will be safe landing on the feathers over the pillow base.
Of course noone will bet the stuff, and tracks will go out of business, but as long as we have a bunch of safe horses thats all that matters!!
Pillow Track!!! A jpops/oracle company bringing the ultimate in safe race track conditions to a track near you!!! Coming soon!!!


Jpops I'm off to hit the local chicken farms to see how fast they can fill the order for the feather surface.
You hit someplace like Macy's to get the pillows. I don't want you going to Wal Mart and getting those cheap pillows, we want nothing but the best in this operation.

[Coach Pants]

Exactly, but you have to talk about the Polytrack issue wearing kitten gloves because of all of the horses that are breaking down on dirt....I love the quick fix it provides to the health of the horse and the quick fix it provides to the entry box for racetracks to make them more money by having a BIGGER card to bet (but ironically, a decievingly worse ad more confusing card to bet for the handicapper), but I DO NOT like the fact that it will change the game in MORE ASPECTS THAN THE AVERAGE HORSE AN REALIZES!!!

I look at it like this:

Yes, I'm sad to see Barbaro break down on dirt, but it would be a greater shame in my opinion if Barbaro was never realized as a good horse had he had to run on Polytrack his whole life, because you never know...he might hae HATED it and just been another 'horse' - and not the Barbaro we grew to love by his turf and dirt efforts.....just saying..

The Polytrack will bring different kinds of champions, but I'll always question in the back of my mind how good a champion on Polytrack really is if he had to run on dirt...

Remember, horses are wild animals that learned how to run and be superior athletes in the natural environs of the planet - mostly consisting of GRASS pasteurs or DIRT trails....

God didn't make them to run on rubber tires and fibers covered in wax.....thats just my opinion though

Offs. That's like saying track athletes are suspect because they don't run on dirt anymore.

All this boils down to is fear of change. Whether it's the vet's fear of losing business or the breeding industry in panic mode. Heaven forbid these people have to adapt.

[eurobounce]

I think you miss the point Pillow. Many people have a vested interest in the SPORT, which encompasses many things.
I asked if he had a vestetd interest in a specific track or company.And I have said 100 times that I do not.

[Coach Pants]

I think you miss the point Pillow. Many people have a vested interest in the SPORT, which encompasses many things.
I asked if he had a vestetd interest in a specific track or company.
If he does I see no harm with promoting his vested interest. You're doing the same thing by denouncing poly due to the fact it could have a negative impact on your business.

[oracle80]

And I have said 100 times that I do not.
Ok enough of that.
Euro Jpops and I are starting the Pillowtrack Corp. After very brief conferring, we are asking you to take on the lead role of publicity and propaganda. We are quite impressed with your resume, including first and foremost not only the experience you have running your business, but the incredible enthusiam and steadfast support of polytrack.
We'd like to you to be CFO and head of marketing and propaganda.
This could be very lucrative.
Do you know where we can a good deal of about 100,000 top of the line pillows. I'm in upstate Ny so I think I can handle the feathers.

[oracle80]

If he does I see no harm with promoting his vested interest. You're doing the same thing by denouncing poly due to the fact it could have a negative impact on your business.
People will always buy horses.

[Coach Pants]

Lharge, noone wants horses to get hurt but the BUSINESS of horse racing is pretty heavily reliant on wagering to kinda generate minor things like purses.
I've got a great idea Jpops!!!
Go and get us the paperwork to fill out for a patent today!!! YOu can be my partner!! We'll call it pillowtrack. We'll take thousands of pillows and use them as the base. Then we cover the pillow base with a 3 foot layer of feathers.
Sure it will take em 5 minutes to go 6 furlongs. But hey, I'm sure it won't take long to find out who the excellent pillow track stallions are. Injuries will drop down to nothing. And if one falls the jocks will be safe landing on the feathers over the pillow base.
Of course noone will bet the stuff, and tracks will go out of business, but as long as we have a bunch of safe horses thats all that matters!!
Pillow Track!!! A jpops/oracle company bringing the ultimate in safe race track conditions to a track near you!!! Coming soon!!!
I'm gonna sue you guys. :D

[SniperSB23]

Can someone give me some good examples of older consistent horses that have gone to polytrack and absolutely run terrible just because of the surface? I've seen lots of 2yos move up or down off of it but that is normal for 2yos on any surface. Premium Tap ran a poor race but you can blame Kent D for his troubles more than the surface. The only major difference I have seen with polytrack is that turf horses like it a lot more than they like the dirt.

[Coach Pants]

People will always buy horses.
Exactly and people will figure out which bloodline takes to poly and things will even out in the end.

[oracle80]

Can someone give me some good examples of older consistent horses that have gone to polytrack and absolutely run terrible just because of the surface? I've seen lots of 2yos move up or down off of it but that is normal for 2yos on any surface. Premium Tap ran a poor race but you can blame Kent D for his troubles more than the surface. The only major difference I have seen with polytrack is that turf horses like it a lot more than they like the dirt.
How about Lawyer Ron? Hes only earned over a mill on dirt. Lemons Forever comes to mind as well, off the board in a 100 grand polycrap race, next out wins the Oaks. Those are pretty good for starters.
If they stayed on poly they'd have been in for a tag after long.

[oracle80]

Exactly and people will figure out which bloodline takes to poly and things will even out in the end.
They won't. Its not a breeding thing, its not something a horse can be bred for. It defies all evolution and breeding.

[Coach Pants]

How about Lawyer Ron? Hes only earned over a mill on dirt. Lemons Forever comes to mind as well, off the board in a 100 grand polycrap race, next out wins the Oaks. Those are pretty good for starters.
If they stayed on poly they'd have been in for a tag after long.
One could argue that the Oaks is suspect since Lemons Forever has been pretty much a no show the rest of the year.

[Pointg5]

Exactly and people will figure out which bloodline takes to poly and things will even out in the end.

Not in our lifetimes...

[Coach Pants]

They won't. Its not a breeding thing, its not something a horse can be bred for. It defies all evolution and breeding.
I'm not a scientist but I find that highly illogical.
http://www.hiddenlinksgolf.com/img/course/spock.jpg

[oracle80]

One could argue that the Oaks is suspect since Lemons Forever has been pretty much a no show the rest of the year.
She still managed to hit the board in grade ones after that.
Bottom line is that she missed the board in a cheap stakes race filled with nobodies and in her next start won the Oaks.
Look, I can see you are pretty good at trying to play devil's advocate with every statement, but people who attempt that don't impress me. Its a very easy thing to do.
You can make up something along those lines for just about every horse can't you?
How about YOU telling us in for oh so infinite wisdom and knowledge about the ones who ran well on Poly and replicated the form on dirt. I promise not to be like you and play Devil's advocate with each one.
Feel free to enlighten us. Thanks!

[eurobounce]

She still managed to hit the board in grade ones after that.
Bottom line is that she missed the board in a cheap stakes race filled with nobodies and in her next start won the Oaks.
Look, I can see you are pretty good at trying to play devil's advocate with every statement, but people who attempt that don't impress me. Its a very easy thing to do.
You can make up something along those lines for just about every horse can't you?
How about YOU telling us in for oh so infinite wisdom and knowledge about the ones who ran well on Poly and replicated the form on dirt. I promise not to be like you and play Devil's advocate with each one.
Feel free to enlighten us. Thanks!Go back and watch that race. Lemons Forever was closing very very fast at Turfway. It was a prep for the Oaks and the trainer didnt even have her cranked 100%. Her 3rd place performance at Turfway was a great prep to the Oaks. And since I got to see that race, saw how she worked, saw how pathetic the top horses in the Oaks looked---I benefited from a 40-1 shot winning.

[oracle80]

We're gonna need Pgardn as well on this Company and I wanna hire him as head of technology.
Pgardn, get back to us asap. We need you to draw up nifty little sketches of how the surface is layed down, what it is, the scientific makeup down to the molecule of both the pillows(pillowcases also), and the feathers.
Then we need you to write up the scientific data as it applies to pressure per square inch and resiliency. Lots of charts and data and figures that noone will understand and is too complicated for them to verify because most folks won't have any idea what you are talking about. And what people don't understand they often label as brilliance instead of bull****. Its a fact.
Now Pgardn, this is your ticket out of the high school to the big time. We'll have you on one of those big Texas ranches like J.R. lived on in Dallas, in no time.

[Pointg5]

Go back and watch that race. Lemons Forever was closing very very fast at Turfway. It was a prep for the Oaks and the trainer didnt even have her cranked 100%. Her 3rd place performance at Turfway was a great prep to the Oaks. And since I got to see that race, saw how she worked, saw how pathetic the top horses in the Oaks looked---I benefited from a 40-1 shot winning.


Believe me that guy wanted to win that race at Turfway, it's not like he knew that horse was going to win the Oaks, he probably was surprised as anyone...

[Coach Pants]

She still managed to hit the board in grade ones after that.
Bottom line is that she missed the board in a cheap stakes race filled with nobodies and in her next start won the Oaks.
Look, I can see you are pretty good at trying to play devil's advocate with every statement, but people who attempt that don't impress me. Its a very easy thing to do.
You can make up something along those lines for just about every horse can't you?
How about YOU telling us in for oh so infinite wisdom and knowledge about the ones who ran well on Poly and replicated the form on dirt. I promise not to be like you and play Devil's advocate with each one.
Feel free to enlighten us. Thanks!

I think i'm going to be like you and question everyone's intelligence, ya ****in prick.

[oracle80]

Go back and watch that race. Lemons Forever was closing very very fast at Turfway. It was a prep for the Oaks and the trainer didnt even have her cranked 100%. Her 3rd place performance at Turfway was a great prep to the Oaks. And since I got to see that race, saw how she worked, saw how pathetic the top horses in the Oaks looked---I benefited from a 40-1 shot winning.
Funny that those pathetic horses have accounted for 5 grade one wins since then huh?
WRONG. If anything the pace and tough trips accounted for her winning, and I agree that it was fluky.
But you are lying to yourself if you think she was closing at TP. I saw her that day, and she was even paced and inder a drive for a half mile and could make up no ground. If you wanna make a little bet on this I'd be happy to.

[SniperSB23]

How about Lawyer Ron? Hes only earned over a mill on dirt. Lemons Forever comes to mind as well, off the board in a 100 grand polycrap race, next out wins the Oaks. Those are pretty good for starters.
If they stayed on poly they'd have been in for a tag after long.

Lawyer Ron only ran on poly as a 2yo before he'd ever run on dirt. If he were to run on it now and struggle I'd give it some credence but because he ran so poorly on it so early he could have just improved in that first dirt race in the slop on the quirky Keeneland surface. His next start on dirt wasn't until December which for a 2yo has little relevance to how they were running 3-4 months prior. His turf races after the first dirt race were 25 points higher than all his turf starts early in his career so there is a lot of evidence that he was just simply a much better horse later in the year.

Lemons ran twice on polytrack, winning once and finishing a fast closing third in the stakes falling a length short of winning. I don't see how that is so inconsistent with her form.

I'm looking for a good example of an established dirt horse not running well. Say Happy Ticket or Spun Sugar really tank. Then I'd give some more credence to the theory that good dirt horses won't like poly. You know what though, I betcha they wind up running 1-2 because they are the best horses in the race and the best horses won't have a problem with poly.

[oracle80]

Lawyer Ron only ran on poly as a 2yo before he'd ever run on dirt. If he were to run on it now and struggle I'd give it some credence but because he ran so poorly on it so early he could have just improved in that first dirt race in the slop on the quirky Keeneland surface. His next start on dirt wasn't until December which for a 2yo has little relevance to how they were running 3-4 months prior. His turf races after the first dirt race were 25 points higher than all his turf starts early in his career so there is a lot of evidence that he was just simply a much better horse later in the year.

Lemons ran twice on polytrack, winning once and finishing a fast closing third in the stakes falling a length short of winning. I don't see how that is so inconsistent with her form.

I'm looking for a good example of an established dirt horse not running well. Say Happy Ticket or Spun Sugar really tank. Then I'd give some more credence to the theory that good dirt horses won't like poly. You know what though, I betcha they wind up running 1-2 because they are the best horses in the race and the best horses won't have a problem with poly.


Yeah that loss to Top Notch lady with that "fast closing third place finish" was really powerful.
So she misses the board then she gets beat by Top Notch Lady(anybody seen her after that?) and then wins the Oaks. I definitely see the correlation there:rolleyes:

[SniperSB23]

Yeah that loss to Top Notch lady with that "fast closing third place finish" was really powerful.
So she misses the board then she gets beat by Top Notch Lady(anybody seen her after that?) and then wins the Oaks. I definitely see the correlation there:rolleyes:

It's hardly ike she tanked, it was her first Stakes race and she got third. If you want to get this ridiculous with your arguments how about the fact that she moved forward 30 points from her maiden on dirt to her maiden on polytrack. You want polytrack to fail so are trying to find reasons for it. I don't care for polytrack either but I still haven't seen an established dirt horse hate the surface. I don't buy that Barbaro or Bernardini or Discreet Cat wouldn't be great on polytrack. The only major effect I have seen is that turf horses like it a lot more than dirt.

[LARHAGE]

I think everybody jumping to conclusions and being prophets of doom is premature at least and plain silly at best. I think we should just watch and observe Keeneland this meet and see how a higher caliber of horse performs over it. This silly notion of it changing the evolution of the horses is pure b.s, and if it were in fact true than we should hardly be complaining, I mean do we really need to preserve the sires that are producing fragile, broken down sprinters capable of 5 races in a campaign?

[Coach Pants]

I think everybody jumping to conclusions and being prophets of doom is premature at least and plain silly at best. I think we should just watch and observe Keeneland this meet and see how a higher caliber of horse performs over it. This silly notion of it changing the evolution of the horses is pure b.s, and if it were in fact true than we should hardly be complaining, I mean do we really need to preserve the sires that are producing fragile, broken down sprinters capable of 5 races in a campaign?
If I recall Turfway shippers did quite well at Keeneland this spring but that's simply not enough data to say that Polytrack is a winner either. It boggles the mind how the naysayers are so resolute.

[oracle80]

If I recall Turfway shippers did quite well at Keeneland this spring but that's simply not enough data to say that Polytrack is a winner either. It boggles the mind how the naysayers are so resolute.
Which horses?

[JJP]

It's hardly ike she tanked, it was her first Stakes race and she got third. If you want to get this ridiculous with your arguments how about the fact that she moved forward 30 points from her maiden on dirt to her maiden on polytrack. You want polytrack to fail so are trying to find reasons for it. I don't care for polytrack either but I still haven't seen an established dirt horse hate the surface. I don't buy that Barbaro or Bernardini or Discreet Cat wouldn't be great on polytrack. The only major effect I have seen is that turf horses like it a lot more than dirt.

I would say Lawyer Ron qualifies as an established dirt horse and he couldn't break his maiden over the stuff. Seen that longshots have dominated most of the stakes on the main big stakes days at TP in the past year, I'd say there's a number of at least decent dirt horses who didn't care for it.

Turf horse may like it IF they also handle dirt, but you're already talking about a versatile horse then.

[Coach Pants]

Which horses?
I'm not going to take the time to look that up.

Instead i'm going to say I talked to the top trainers but I can't name names and they said their horses did well at Keeneland and they like how their horses transitioned from poly to dirt. They also talked about the season premiere of Lost but that's where I faded out of the convo because I don't watch it.

[eurobounce]

Funny that those pathetic horses have accounted for 5 grade one wins since then huh?
WRONG. If anything the pace and tough trips accounted for her winning, and I agree that it was fluky.
But you are lying to yourself if you think she was closing at TP. I saw her that day, and she was even paced and inder a drive for a half mile and could make up no ground. If you wanna make a little bet on this I'd be happy to.You were at Turfway the day she finished 3rd. That is funny because I was there too. Here is the chart comment from her race. "Bumped foe, nice outside advance for third, one length behind Top Notch Lady" Notice--NICE OUTSIDE ADVANCE FOR THIRD.

[oracle80]

You were at Turfway the day she finished 3rd. That is funny because I was there too. Here is the chart comment from her race. "Bumped foe, nice outside advance for third, one length behind Top Notch Lady" Notice--NICE OUTSIDE ADVANCE FOR THIRD.
I said I saw her, they showed the race on Tv.
She was under a hard drive for a half mile and spinning her wheels, and got beat by two dregs.
WHich part of that do you deny?

[SniperSB23]

I would say Lawyer Ron qualifies as an established dirt horse and he couldn't break his maiden over the stuff. Seen that longshots have dominated most of the stakes on the main big stakes days at TP in the past year, I'd say there's a number of at least decent dirt horses who didn't care for it.

Turf horse may like it IF they also handle dirt, but you're already talking about a versatile horse then.

He absolutely sucked on the turf at the beginning of his career as well as on polytrack. He improved and finally tried the dirt. At that point he moved back to the turf and ran two straight 78 Beyers after his first three races on turf were 53-55. So he'd improved 25 points on the turf surface he couldn't break his maiden on as well. What is to say that he wouldn't have improved 25 points if he went back to polytrack or that he wouldn't have been running in the 50s early in his career on dirt.

[eurobounce]

I said I saw her, they showed the race on Tv.
She was under a hard drive for a half mile and spinning her wheels, and got beat by two dregs.
WHich part of that do you deny?I am not denying anything. I am saying she had a nice close to get third. She wasnt spinning her wheels at all. She looped along and then found her best stride and closed nicely for third. Funny she was 8th behind about 6 lengths at the half pole. Then she closed nicely to miss by 1 length. Hmmmm...doesnt sound like she was spinning her wheels that day at all.

[oracle80]

I am not denying anything. I am saying she had a nice close to get third. She wasnt spinning her wheels at all. She looped along and then found her best stride and closed nicely for third. Funny she was 8th behind about 6 lengths at the half pole. Then she closed nicely to miss by 1 length. Hmmmm...doesnt sound like she was spinning her wheels that day at all.
You are a joke when it comes to race watching if you think that.
That day was my first and only day of betting polytrack.
I played her that day and keyed her. I was watching her the whole way. Guidry had her in a hard drive on the turn and she couldnt gain an inch. It wasn't a real close, the two horses she was chasing droppewd dead after a duel and she passed those two only after getting passed by the other two.
Never at any time did she ever look she had any chance whatsoever of winning.
Then WIth A City won, and that was enough polytrack for me thanks!!!

[Downthestretch55]

I think everybody jumping to conclusions and being prophets of doom is premature at least and plain silly at best. I think we should just watch and observe Keeneland this meet and see how a higher caliber of horse performs over it. This silly notion of it changing the evolution of the horses is pure b.s, and if it were in fact true than we should hardly be complaining, I mean do we really need to preserve the sires that are producing fragile, broken down sprinters capable of 5 races in a campaign?
Larhage,
Again you speak sense in the midst of "madness".
I'll also watch.

[oracle80]

I am not denying anything. I am saying she had a nice close to get third. She wasnt spinning her wheels at all. She looped along and then found her best stride and closed nicely for third. Funny she was 8th behind about 6 lengths at the half pole. Then she closed nicely to miss by 1 length. Hmmmm...doesnt sound like she was spinning her wheels that day at all.

And some memory you must have to not be able to tell me about the race like I told you. I guess folks who cant watch races and retain what they see have to go to equibase and look up charts.
Guys who really watch races can quote chapter and verse what happened in a race and how a horse was ridden and what they did, I guess thats the difference here.
Too bad you have to waste so much time looking up charts on the net in order to talk about a horses's race. Lame.

[Coach Pants]

You are a joke when it comes to race watching if you think that.
That day was my first and only day of betting polytrack.
I played her that day and keyed her. I was watching her the whole way. Guidry had her in a hard drive on the turn and she couldnt gain an inch. It wasn't a real close, the two horses she was chasing droppewd dead after a duel and she passed those two only after getting passed by the other two.
Never at any time did she ever look she had any chance whatsoever of winning.
Then WIth A City won, and that was enough polytrack for me thanks!!!

Wouldn't you say that your wager has clouded your view of the race? I'm not sure because i'm not as smart as you. Hell...nobody on this board is.

[Nostradamus]

Wouldn't you say that your wager has clouded your view of the race? I'm not sure because i'm not as smart as you. Hell...nobody on this board is.

Oracle knows everything. Didn't you know that. That is why he is such a big player in the game. I read about him everyday on the bloodhorse. LOL.

[Nostradamus]

There really is no rule when betting Keeneland. It is a new surface and the best way to bet it is to bet on class alone. It is a good meet to save all the information and charts from. There probably will be all sorts of little angles.

[Coach Pants]

Oracle knows everything. Didn't you know that. That is why he is such a big player in the game. I read about him everyday on the bloodhorse. LOL.
Yeah he's the guy behind the guy behind the guy.

[oracle80]

Wouldn't you say that your wager has clouded your view of the race? I'm not sure because i'm not as smart as you. Hell...nobody on this board is.
My wager was on Lemons, and I don't see how that could cloud anything mr advocate.
You have a pretty big mouth so perhaps you could enlighten me as to teh finer points of the race of which I KNOW what happened.
Coronados Vision went out and dueled with someone else. My basis of playing the race was that I HATED the favorite sabatini of Biancone's who was a ridiculously overbet odds on fave.
Top Notch lady who I believe was casse's horse won teh race and Lemons was under a HARD drive halfway through the turn and spinning her wheels. She then passed the duelers eventually(I cant remember who Coronado dueld with, I admit that) and never looked like a winner.
Now please explain to me how that wager clouded my vision. I know what i saw and it was a very lackluster performance with no excuses at all.
YOu wanna watch knowledge of this game with me? Go for it, I'll enjoy smoking you right here on any topic you choose!!!
Now please give me your take of that race that lemons lost. Tell me how you think it set up and your visual impressions of what the participants that you can recall did.
I'm very much looking forward to it.
People who comment on races they didn't see or about as absurd as any people I can imagine. How teh hell can anyone question what someone else saw in a race if they didn't see it themselves? Its insane.

[oracle80]

By the way Top Notch went on to win a grass stakes race or high priced allowance at Woodbine later on this past year. But pillow, I'm sure you knew that right?

[Coach Pants]

My wager was on Lemons, and I don't see how that could cloud anything mr advocate.
You have a pretty big mouth so perhaps you could enlighten me as to teh finer points of the race of which I KNOW what happened.
Coronados Vision went out and dueled with someone else. My basis of playing the race was that I HATED the favorite sabatini of Biancone's who was a ridiculously overbet odds on fave.
Top Notch lady who I believe was casse's horse won teh race and Lemons was under a HARD drive halfway through the turn and spinning her wheels. She then passed the duelers eventually(I cant remember who Coronado dueld with, I admit that) and never looked like a winner.
Now please explain to me how that wager clouded my vision. I know what i saw and it was a very lackluster performance with no excuses at all.
YOu wanna watch knowledge of this game with me? Go for it, I'll enjoy smoking you right here on any topic you choose!!!
Now please give me your take of that race that lemons lost. Tell me how you think it set up and your visual impressions of what the participants that you can recall did.
I'm very much looking forward to it.
People who comment on races they didn't see or about as absurd as any people I can imagine. How teh hell can anyone question what someone else saw in a race if they didn't see it themselves? Its insane.
It's amazing you're so resolute in the running of the race yet you wagered on the horse. This all comes down to your inability to find fault in anything you do that is horse racing related. Unfortunately for polytrack it is to blame for your failure to pick the winner. And thus polytrack is bad for the game because you lost a bet. Boo hoo.

How about we duel in a game of tetris?

You need me to mock you a little harder until you finally get a clue, punchy?

[eurobounce]

You are a joke when it comes to race watching if you think that.
That day was my first and only day of betting polytrack.
I played her that day and keyed her. I was watching her the whole way. Guidry had her in a hard drive on the turn and she couldnt gain an inch. It wasn't a real close, the two horses she was chasing droppewd dead after a duel and she passed those two only after getting passed by the other two.
Never at any time did she ever look she had any chance whatsoever of winning.
Then WIth A City won, and that was enough polytrack for me thanks!!!Losing by a 1 length and you say your horse had no chance of winning--ha ha. That is funny. She ran a good race. You dont know how to watch a race on PolyTrack.

[oracle80]

It's amazing you're so resolute in the running of the race yet you wagered on the horse. This all comes down to your inability to find fault in anything you do that is horse racing related. Unfortunately for polytrack it is to blame for your failure to pick the winner. And thus polytrack is bad for the game because you lost a bet. Boo hoo.

How about we duel in a game of tetris?

You need me to mock you a little harder until you finally get a clue, punchy?

I don't see how who I wagered on would change the outcome of how who ran where and what and how.
I'm tellin ya what I saw.
If you had actaully seen the race you might be able to debate it.
But alas, you didnt, so you wanna try and make witty quotes about dueling with tetris.
I thought I made a horrible bet at the time to be honest, and didn't blame anyone but me. I cursed myself out for betting Dallas Stewart who I have had VERY little luck wagering on. I sure didn't blame Polytrack. So you can strike that as a theory.

[oracle80]

Losing by a 1 length and you say your horse had no chance of winning--ha ha. That is funny. She ran a good race. You dont know how to watch a race on PolyTrack.
Im stll waiting for you to describe the running of the race as you saw it.

[Coach Pants]

I don't see how who I wagered on would change the outcome of how who ran where and what and how.
I'm tellin ya what I saw.
If you had actaully seen the race you might be able to debate it.
But alas, you didnt, so you wanna try and make witty quotes about dueling with tetris.
I thought I made a horrible bet at the time to be honest, and didn't blame anyone but me. I cursed myself out for betting Dallas Stewart who I have had VERY little luck wagering on. I sure didn't blame Polytrack. So you can strike that as a theory.
Ok I was just a little thrown off at this quote and I went with it.

You are a joke when it comes to race watching if you think that.
That day was my first and only day of betting polytrack.


It's obvious you don't blame poly. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[oracle80]

Ok I was just a little thrown off at this quote and I went with it.



It's obvious you don't blame poly. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:
That was based on With A City, and I notice you left that part of the quote out.
You aren't a very good sleuth, to say the very least.

[Coach Pants]

That was based on With A City, and I notice you left that part of the quote out.
You aren't a very good sleuth, to say the very least.So it's With A City's fault now?

Spin spin spin. I GOTTA BE RIGHT!

[eurobounce]

Im stll waiting for you to describe the running of the race as you saw it.I already answered this. Lemons Forever, broke slowly, looped around in 3rd about 6 lengths from the 1st place horse. Found her best stride (like she always does) and closed nicely to lose by 1 length. Watch her previous races and it is the same pattern.

My question to you--how can a horse who spins her wheels close to lose by 1 length?

[oracle80]

So it's With A City's fault now?

Spin spin spin. I GOTTA BE RIGHT!
Again,
I don't know whats so hard to grasp about a race being so unformful as With A City's being a kinda negative experience in your first start playing Poly.
I certainly didn't think Lemons was any kind of cinch, I just though she was value, and it certainly didn't shock me that she lost.
WHen you can beat me in knoweldge of something, get back to me.

[oracle80]

I already answered this. Lemons Forever, broke slowly, looped around in 3rd about 6 lengths from the 1st place horse. Found her best stride (like she always does) and closed nicely to lose by 1 length. Watch her previous races and it is the same pattern.

My question to you--how can a horse who spins her wheels close to lose by 1 length?
You are reading me a chart call. You are't telling me what you saw. Which I take to mean that you can't. You haven't given me any specifics about her trip or things like who she chased and when she was put in a drive.

[Coach Pants]

Again,
I don't know whats so hard to grasp about a race being so unformful as With A City's being a kinda negative experience in your first start playing Poly.
I certainly didn't think Lemons was any kind of cinch, I just though she was value, and it certainly didn't shock me that she lost.
WHen you can beat me in knoweldge of something, get back to me.

IQ test for 50k. Anytime. Anyplace.

[oracle80]

IQ test for 50k. Anytime. Anyplace. A$$holeface.
Seattleallstar offered me that same challenge, ask him how he made out with that one.:)

[SniperSB23]

What was so bad about With a City winning that race? The field was dreadful. Would it have been so much better if Hemingway's Key or Superfly won? Seaside Retreat? Malameeze? More than Regal? Pair of Kings? Sharp Attack? Tahoe Warrior? Laity? Silent Times? Starspangled Gator? In a race full of nags someone has to win.

[Coach Pants]

Seattleallstar offered me that same challenge, ask him how he made out with that one.:)
Yes or no. No more spin.

[Coach Pants]

What was so bad about With a City winning that race? The field was dreadful. Would it have been so much better if Hemingway's Key or Superfly won? Seaside Retreat? Malameeze? More than Regal? Pair of Kings? Sharp Attack? Tahoe Warrior? Laity? Silent Times? Starspangled Gator? In a race full of nags someone has to win.
And it has to be Oracle's horse. Don't you see?

[oracle80]

What was so bad about With a City winning that race? The field was dreadful. Would it have been so much better if Hemingway's Key or Superfly won? Seaside Retreat? Malameeze? More than Regal? Pair of Kings? Sharp Attack? Tahoe Warrior? Laity? Silent Times? Starspangled Gator? In a race full of nags someone has to win.
With A City's form on dirt was absolutely dreadful, and I mean woeful. It wasn't like he had ever been even remotely competitive in anything. He failed in claimers.
Seaside Retreat was just about as bad. When they ran 1-2 I said ok, thats it.
You devils advocate guys are piss poor. You can make that argument in hindsight with any horse.
So how much did you guys have on him? You musta made one hell of a killing because if you can justify him winning that race(of course now its in hindsight, as usual) then you should have had a bundle on him at those odds.
WHo exactly is bull****ting who here?
You guys wanna get on me because I think an impossible horse won and admit it. Then you guys wanna tell me how he figured. Gee, how much did you guys have on him then? If you didn't bet him then its pretty obvious who the bull****ters are.

[eurobounce]

You are reading me a chart call. You are't telling me what you saw. Which I take to mean that you can't. You haven't given me any specifics about her trip or things like who she chased and when she was put in a drive.Well that is what I saw. She chased everyone as she broke last. She had a nice trip around the outside. The first horse she chased was Cappozenne and then Sabatinni. But a horse who breaks 9th and ends of being 3rd losing by 1 length tells me she didnt spin her wheels. Now, again----how can a horse who spins her wheels finish 3rd when breaking last?

[SniperSB23]

With A City's form on dirt was absolutely dreadful, and I mean woeful. It wasn't like he had ever been even remotely competitive in anything. He failed in claimers.
Seaside Retreat was just about as bad. When they ran 1-2 I said ok, thats it.
You devils advocate guys are piss poor. You can make that argument in hindsight with any horse.
So how much did you guys have on him? You musta made one hell of a killing because if you can justify him winning that race(of course now its in hindsight, as usual) then you should have had a bundle on him at those odds.
WHo exactly is bull****ting who here?
You guys wanna get on me because I think an impossible horse won and admit it. Then you guys wanna tell me how he figured. Gee, how much did you guys have on him then? If you didn't bet him then its pretty obvious who the bull****ters are.

I liked Silent Times so I didn't do too well in that race.

With a City actually broke his maiden on dirt and then ran 3rd and 4th in two stakes races before falling to the claiming ranks. He then won two in a row on the turf before flopping on the polytrack first race back off the layoff. I've said twice now that I think turf horses do well on polytrack and that is the only big difference in the surface. I'm yet to see an established dirt horse go to polytrack and not take to it. Lawyer Ron was not established when he ran on the poly and Lemons Forever has a first and a third in two starts on poly and they are running her in a G1 against older mares on it this weekend so her connections certainly don't think she has a problem with it.

[oracle80]

Well that is what I saw. She chased everyone as she broke last. She had a nice trip around the outside. The first horse she chased was Cappozenne and then Sabatinni. But a horse who breaks 9th and ends of being 3rd losing by 1 length tells me she didnt spin her wheels. Now, again----how can a horse who spins her wheels finish 3rd when breaking last?
When the race is VERY slow, and the horse though breaking last is given a good pace to close on because horses hook up on the front end, and in addition gets a clean trip with no steadying or blocking the whole way adn is put into a HARD drive being asked for everything she has on the turn and is beaten by horses who PASS HER FROM BEHIND. You grasp this?
You are fraudulently trying to represent this is a situation where she was closing on horses she couldnt quite get to, rather than she was behind a duel and got a great trip and got swallowed up by horses who passed her from behind.
The race got an awful fig too.
Other than that it was a "stellar performance".

[oracle80]

I liked Silent Times so I didn't do too well in that race.

With a City actually broke his maiden on dirt and then ran 3rd and 4th in two stakes races before falling to the claiming ranks. He then won two in a row on the turf before flopping on the polytrack first race back off the layoff. I've said twice now that I think turf horses do well on polytrack and that is the only big difference in the surface. I'm yet to see an established dirt horse go to polytrack and not take to it. Lawyer Ron was not established when he ran on the poly and Lemons Forever has a first and a third in two starts on poly and they are running her in a G1 against older mares on it this weekend so her connections certainly don't think she has a problem with it.

Ok so basically you chastised me for saying I thought he was impossible and didn't bet him, and you made a case on how he could havebeen played, yet didn't bet a nickel on him at a zillion to one.
I understand.

[Coach Pants]

When the race is VERY slow, and the horse though breaking last is given a good pace to close on because horses hook up on the front end, and in addition gets a clean trip with no steadying or blocking the whole way adn is put into a HARD drive being asked for everything she has on the turn and is beaten by horses who PASS HER FROM BEHIND. You grasp this?
You are fraudulently trying to represent this is a situation where she was closing on horses she couldnt quite get to, rather than she was behind a duel and got a great trip and got swallowed up by horses who passed her from behind.
The race got an awful fig too.
Other than that it was a "stellar performance".
Heaven forbid he read a chart call but it's ok for you to speak of the fig? Unbelievable.

[eurobounce]

When the race is VERY slow, and the horse though breaking last is given a good pace to close on because horses hook up on the front end, and in addition gets a clean trip with no steadying or blocking the whole way adn is put into a HARD drive being asked for everything she has on the turn and is beaten by horses who PASS HER FROM BEHIND. You grasp this?
You are fraudulently trying to represent this is a situation where she was closing on horses she couldnt quite get to, rather than she was behind a duel and got a great trip and got swallowed up by horses who passed her from behind.
The race got an awful fig too.
Other than that it was a "stellar performance".She actually bumped Sabatini so she didnt get a clean trip. And I dont consider the horses hooking up front playing into the equation. Point is, she closed nicely to get 3rd beaten by 1 length. That was a very nice performance.

[SniperSB23]

Ok so basically you chastised me for saying I thought he was impossible and didn't bet him, and you made a case on how he could havebeen played, yet didn't bet a nickel on him at a zillion to one.
I understand.

You just said that you completely gave up on handicapping polytrack because of With a City winning the Lane's End. I didn't bet him but can see how someone could have and considering the other horses in the field I don't think it was that unusual of an outcome. If I swore off betting every track where a field of mediocre 2yos or 3yos met in a stakes race and a longshot won I'd be out of tracks to play by now.

[oracle80]

You just said that you completely gave up on handicapping polytrack because of With a City winning the Lane's End. I didn't bet him but can see how someone could have and considering the other horses in the field I don't think it was that unusual of an outcome. If I swore off betting every track where a field of mediocre 2yos or 3yos met in a stakes race and a longshot won I'd be out of tracks to play by now.

I never said I " gave up" betting polytrack and you guys spend a lotta time trying to lie about what I said.
I said it was my first and last time betting it.
I still try and handicap it, doesn't everyone? I still watch the races run there and still try and make sense of them.
I had the same view on Polytrack this past March when they ran those races as I did when it opened last fall and ran this past winter.
That was the only day I gave playing it a shot, mostly because of the big fields and stakes races that were being run.
I took a swing that day, didn't like what I saw, and after the With A City race, decided that I had the right idea in the first place.
You may have noted I said I also had been watching Poly in Woodbine(on tv). I still handicap the races and try to make sense of it, its just that up to this point they don't make sense.
You can handicap and follow something without BETTING on it. Its prudent to still pay attention to races being run there. But it won't get my gambling dollar.

[oracle80]

Heaven forbid he read a chart call but it's ok for you to speak of the fig? Unbelievable.
Is that what you are reduced to? I didn't quote the fig, I don't recall it exactly, but I recall it being slow. And I didn't have to "look it up".

[eurobounce]

I never said I " gave up" betting polytrack and you guys spend a lotta time trying to lie about what I said.
I said it was my first and last time betting it.
I still try and handicap it, doesn't everyone? I still watch the races run there and still try and make sense of them.
I had the same view on Polytrack this past March when they ran those races as I did when it opened last fall and ran this past winter.
That was the only day I gave playing it a shot, mostly because of the big fields and stakes races that were being run.
I took a swing that day, didn't like what I saw, and after the With A City race, decided that I had the right idea in the first place.
You may have noted I said I also had been watching Poly in Woodbine(on tv). I still handicap the races and try to make sense of it, its just that up to this point they don't make sense.
You can handicap and follow something without BETTING on it. Its prudent to still pay attention to races being run there. But it won't get my gambling dollar.I agree with this 100%. I do the same thing with PolyTrack. I watch and watch and watch and handicap but dont bet. I only placed maybe 4 bets all meet at Turfway. Of course, I did tell you guys about Sunday Blessing $13.60. But I didnt share anything else because I wasnt even 50% confident. But I do the same as Oracle.

[Cajungator26]

It'd be nice if you all could BE NICE! ;)

[SniperSB23]

Then WIth A City won, and that was enough polytrack for me thanks!!!

I never said I " gave up" betting polytrack and you guys spend a lotta time trying to lie about what I said.


Sure sounds like you said you gave up betting polytrack to me.

[Coach Pants]

Is that what you are reduced to? I didn't quote the fig, I don't recall it exactly, but I recall it being slow. And I didn't have to "look it up".
So you accuse euro of not watching the race and give him crap for using a chart yet it's ok for you to recall the fig was slow? Don't you see the hypocrisy? You demand all of this evidence from everyone yet you're the naysayer and it's your duty to prove the surface is unbettable. You haven't. Get over it. You can't always be right. Don't be so condescending and elitist about the subject. You come off as a petty bastard.

[Cajungator26]

So you accuse euro of not watching the race and give him crap for using a chart yet it's ok for you to recall the fig was slow? Don't you see the hypocrisy? You demand all of this evidence from everyone yet you're the naysayer and it's your duty to prove the surface is unbettable. You haven't. Get over it. You can't always be right. Don't be so condescending and elitist about the subject. You come off as a petty bastard.

Maybe I need to repeat my post, Listerfiend. LMFAO! :D

BE NICE! :p

[oracle80]

Sure sounds like you said you gave up betting polytrack to me.
Thats like saying a guy who smoked one cigarette "gave up smoking" when he didn't smoke again after that!! LOL!!!!!

[oracle80]

So you accuse euro of not watching the race and give him crap for using a chart yet it's ok for you to recall the fig was slow? Don't you see the hypocrisy? You demand all of this evidence from everyone yet you're the naysayer and it's your duty to prove the surface is unbettable. You haven't. Get over it. You can't always be right. Don't be so condescending and elitist about the subject. You come off as a petty bastard.

Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.
I said its unbettable for ME!!!! I also said that Joel's theory of taking 5-1 or better on this surface might be great idea and proposed taking 10-1.
You'll never beat me on any horse knowledge in any area, never, ever.
But you are a funny guy. Don't take it personally.

[Coach Pants]

Maybe I need to repeat my post, Listerfiend. LMFAO! :D

BE NICE! :p

Listerfiend hasn't been doing his job. The river will run red with blood if he continues to slack on the job.
:D

[Coach Pants]

Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.
I said its unbettable for ME!!!! I also said that Joel's theory of taking 5-1 or better on this surface might be great idea and proposed taking 10-1.
You'll never beat me on any horse knowledge in any area, never, ever.
But you are a funny guy. Don't take it personally.
With the full fields of course you should look for value. I thought that was common knowledge? I don't know what I would do without the brilliant advice you two give. It's great that we've got so many professional horsemen such as yourself to let us little people know where we stand.

And they wonder why the sport is dying.

[oracle80]

With the full fields of course you should look for value. I thought that was common knowledge? I don't know what I would do without the brilliant advice you two give. It's great that we've got so many professional horsemen such as yourself to let us little people know where we stand.

And they wonder why the sport is dying.

Are you really a little person like the chick Shatner's gonna bang on Boston legal? That kinda little?

[Coach Pants]

Oh yeah here's some advice. Bet trainers who have experience training and running horses on polytrack.

You can thank me later for my brilliance.

Sincerely,

Captain Obvious

P.S. Bernardini is a great horse

[Coach Pants]

Are you really a little person like the chick Shatner's gonna bang on Boston legal? That kinda little?
Are you fat from the meds or the food? Or is that pic of you old and you've gone on the Slimfast diet?

[TitanSooner]

You just said that you completely gave up on handicapping polytrack because of With a City winning the Lane's End. I didn't bet him but can see how someone could have and considering the other horses in the field I don't think it was that unusual of an outcome. If I swore off betting every track where a field of mediocre 2yos or 3yos met in a stakes race and a longshot won I'd be out of tracks to play by now.

agreed.


My rule of thumb for betting Keeneland.. bet whoever you want, it's your money!!! I'm no better handicappar than anyone else here, but I actually am looking forward to Hollywood Park for the first time, I am always sad when SA ends.

Geez.. get over it. Whining isn't going to keep these tracks from doing what is economical and good for the horses.

[pba1817]

People, I am posting this again because I posted it on the second page of this thread and it seems that everyone is missing the real point of Polytrack, at least the reasons for it in California.


http://www.chrb.ca.gov/

Read the sections, Administration Hearings and Complaints/Accusations.

IMO, this is the real reason the people in control are leaning to Polytrack, and thats to hopefully reduce/eliminate the necessity for trainers to cheat just to get their horses healthy enough to be competitive. Yes there is the fact that the people who manufacture and produce the Polytrack are going to profit as well, but I do not think the conspiracy runs that deep.

Do you all remember when Jeff Mullins said anyone who bets on horses is a moron or stupid???? Well he knows exactly what is going on out there on the backside at racetracks and he was simply trying to be honest and do people a favor... The game in its current form its not on the up and up, maybe it never has been, but right now the cheating is out of control.

[oracle80]

Are you fat from the meds or the food? Or is that pic of you old and you've gone on the Slimfast diet?
Your mom likes her lovers on the heavy side.

[Cunningham Racing]

For example, here's what I'd do in the Alcibaides ---

Bet $2 (or whatever units your comfortable with in your wagering system) to WIN on the following horses and sit back and watch:

-X Star (10-1 ML)
-Bel Air Beauty (30-1 ML)
-Pro Pink (30-1 ML)
-Get Ready Bertie (20-1 ML)
-Gatorize (12-1 ML)
-Her Majesty (12-1 ML)

......it'll cost $12 (or whatever your units are) and you'll at least get even money and likely better if any of these fillies wins...

Good luck!

[oracle80]

People, I am posting this again because I posted it on the second page of this thread and it seems that everyone is missing the real point of Polytrack, at least the reasons for it in California.


http://www.chrb.ca.gov/

Read the sections, Administration Hearings and Complaints/Accusations.

IMO, this is the real reason the people in control are leaning to Polytrack, and thats to hopefully reduce/eliminate the necessity for trainers to cheat just to get their horses healthy enough to be competitive. Yes there is the fact that the people who manufacture and produce the Polytrack are going to profit as well, but I do not think the conspiracy runs that deep.

Do you all remember when Jeff Mullins said anyone who bets on horses is a moron or stupid???? Well he knows exactly what is going on on the backside at racetracks and he was simply trying to be honest and do people a favor... The game in its current form its not on the up and up, maybe it never has been, but right now the cheating is out of control.

Thats nice to believe but don't you think its because of the supposed savings on track maintenance moreso than anything else?

[SniperSB23]

For example, here's what I'd do in the Alcibaides ---

Bet $2 (or whatever units your comfortable with in your wagering system) to WIN on the following horses and sit back and watch:

-X Star (10-1 ML)
-Bel Air Beauty (30-1 ML)
-Pro Pink (30-1 ML)
-Get Ready Bertie (20-1 ML)
-Gatorize (12-1 ML)
-Her Majesty (12-1 ML)

......it'll cost $12 (or whatever your units are) and you'll at least get even money and likely better if any of these fillies wins...

Good luck!

I'm probably betting Pro Pink, Her Majesty, and X Star so that pretty much guarantees that one of the other three you mentioned winds up winning.

[pba1817]

Oracle-

Economics are a part of it too. California racing is in poor shape.

[Coach Pants]

Your mom likes her lovers on the heavy side.
She did. Unfortunately she's dead, just like your comeback skills.

[oracle80]

Oracle-

Economics are a part of it too. California racing is in poor shape.

I find it hard to believe that economics arent ALL OF IT!!
If they cared so much about hosrse health, why didnt they give us a deeper surface years ago? Just deeper dirt.

[oracle80]

She did. Unfortunately she's dead, just like your comeback skills.
Sorry man, for real.

[Coach Pants]

Sorry man, for real.
Oh it's ok. Teachers have it rough. She'll come alive next week for fall break.

Haha sucker. :D

[pba1817]

I find it hard to believe that economics arent ALL OF IT!!
If they cared so much about hosrse health, why didnt they give us a deeper surface years ago? Just deeper dirt.


I think that might just be a case of trying to put the cat back into the bag....

The TOC(Thoroughbred Owners of California) obviously cares about horse health, they own the dang horses, the TOC is a large part of the CHRB(California Horse Racing Board) with TOC members holding positions on the CHRB board of directors. So no, I do not believe that this is all about economics.

[oracle80]

Oh it's ok. Teachers have it rough. She'll come alive next week for fall break.

Haha sucker. :D
You bastard, ok you got me good on that one. Here I was feeling awful and hoping it wasn't just a recent thing. *******.

[Cajungator26]

For example, here's what I'd do in the Alcibaides ---

Bet $2 (or whatever units your comfortable with in your wagering system) to WIN on the following horses and sit back and watch:

-X Star (10-1 ML)
-Bel Air Beauty (30-1 ML)
-Pro Pink (30-1 ML)
-Get Ready Bertie (20-1 ML)
-Gatorize (12-1 ML)
-Her Majesty (12-1 ML)

......it'll cost $12 (or whatever your units are) and you'll at least get even money and likely better if any of these fillies wins...

Good luck!

Gotta love the filly named "Gatorize." Isn't that what's going to happen this weekend in Gainesville? LOL!!! :D

[Coach Pants]

You bastard, ok you got me good on that one. Here I was feeling awful and hoping it wasn't just a recent thing. *******.
Hehe. All gloves are off on yo momma jokes. :D

[Coach Pants]

Gotta love the filly named "Gatorize." Isn't that what's going to happen this weekend in Gainesville? LOL!!! :D
If Tebow was starting. Leak? Not so much.

[Cajungator26]

If Tebow was starting. Leak? Not so much.

Well, I'm hoping they let Leak run the ball and maybe try to pull one over on the Tigers... I don't see it happening though. :eek:

[Cunningham Racing]

LSU by two touchdowns....

GEAUX TIGAHS!!! :D

[Coach Pants]

LSU by two touchdowns....

GEAUX TIGAHS!!! :D
I hope so. :P

[Cajungator26]

LSU by two touchdowns....

GEAUX TIGAHS!!! :D

Honestly, I think LSU beats us too, but you won't see me complaining if we win. :D

Tough game for me, though... my two fave teams up against one another! :eek:

[oracle80]

LSU by two touchdowns....

GEAUX TIGAHS!!! :D
How about the pros this week? Lots of very contentious games.
I'm SOOOO MEDIOCRE at picking pro football. Every year I get in a pool at a bar and restaurant here where you have to pick every game every week against the spread. I'M ALWAYS AT .500!!!! Just one year I wanna contend for the top ten who get prizes. Hell I'd love to be the worst, even the last place guy gets a prize. I vowed this year to really pay attention and study the games.
60 games played so far this year, and what am I against the spread in my pool? 30 wins 30 losses. ARGHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Coach Pants]

How about the pros this week? Lots of very contentious games.
I'm SOOOO MEDIOCRE at picking pro football. Every year I get in a pool at a bar and restaurant here where you have to pick every game every week against the spread. I'M ALWAYS AT .500!!!! Just one year I wanna contend for the top ten who get prizes. Hell I'd love to be the worst, even the last place guy gets a prize. I vowed this year to really pay attention and study the games.
60 games played so far this year, and what am I against the spread in my pool? 30 wins 30 losses. ARGHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Outside of last Sunday afternoon the NFL has been taking me to the woodshed, as you see by checking out my Foo'Ball thread.

However, I played a 4 teamer - Browns pick'em, Redskins +130, Pats +6 and Rams -6.5. It came down to the Rams down by 1 with 2:30 left and a touchdown then a two point conversion. Then the Lions almost killed me on a botched pass interference call at the 1. Fortunately for me the ball was tipped and uncatchable. Talk about heart attack city. That call could have robbed me of $1110.


Doing OK with college.

Oh and take the colts -18.5 against the hapless titans.

[pba1817]

50bucks for alcohol on the premises-shame on them---how will polytrack stop juicing? that makes no sense at all

If that does not make any sense to you, then you do not understand whats going on in California racing...

[pba1817]

I do not know the reasons the Keeneland people decided to go to Poly, if it was the speed favoring track or what, but I know why they are doing out in California.

[Cunningham Racing]

How about the pros this week? Lots of very contentious games.
I'm SOOOO MEDIOCRE at picking pro football. Every year I get in a pool at a bar and restaurant here where you have to pick every game every week against the spread. I'M ALWAYS AT .500!!!! Just one year I wanna contend for the top ten who get prizes. Hell I'd love to be the worst, even the last place guy gets a prize. I vowed this year to really pay attention and study the games.
60 games played so far this year, and what am I against the spread in my pool? 30 wins 30 losses. ARGHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I suck at it too...as a matter of fact, I was so bad at it in college that I had to pawn most of my possessions to get straight with the bookies at the end of one year :eek:

....sucked....thats when decided to stick with the horses....they don't make you pay juice :D

[pba1817]

i will look for your response when i get back from the store


In California it has got to the point in which the trainers need to drug their horses, usually illegal amounts, so they can be competitive. Along with training the piss out of them with 1:11 or 1:12 6f works just so they can stay in touch with the pace of the races. It is breaking the horses down at a significant rate.

[oracle80]

I suck at it too...as a matter of fact, I was so bad at it in college that I had to pawn most of my possessions to get straight with the bookies at the end of one year :eek:

....sucked....thats when decided to stick with the horses....they don't make you pay juice :D


You'll notice I never post about betting sports. I only make "mind bets" and play in a football pool thats costs 120 bucks a year.
I've always loved sports more than anything, even horses, but I think its impossible to bet them and make money in the long haul. I just don't bet sports. Maybe a handshake bet on a big game with a friend, but I''ve never placed a bet in my life with a bookie, and of that I'm real happy.

[Scav]

Betting sports is a hell of lot more frustrating, I will tell you that. I think it is because in horse racing, you have 5-11 other horses that can potentially beat you, and that is acceptable most times, in sports, you have one team on the other side that is suppose to suck that day.

[SentToStud]

I'll dabble a few dollars on a night game once in a while. It's just too nerve-wracking to watch a game with big $$ on it.

However, I DO WAGER AS MUCH AS I REASONABLY CAN every year on the Under in the Pro Bowl.

Check the scoring history. It's unbelieveable.

Hell, one year there was a delay due to a storm or something like that. To keep the TV network schedule on track, they decided to play the 2nd half with A RUNNING CLOCK.

Running clock = good thing for the Under people.

[Pointg5]

At one time I played some college basketball, I have a passion for that sport, my rule of thumb was never to bet on the Bearcats. I despise Kentucky and Xavier, never bet on them to lose, but if I thought they could win, load up. Biggest win I ever had was when Xavier was playing St. Joseph in the A-10 tournament, I took X and the money line, Xavier won and ended up going to the Elite Eight that year, they got screwed by the refs and should have beat Duke, but I didn't bet them that game...

[Coach Pants]

At one time I played some college basketball, I have a passion for that sport, my rule of thumb was never to bet on the Bearcats. I despise Kentucky and Xavier, never bet on them to lose, but if I thought they could win, load up. Biggest win I ever had was when Xavier was playing St. Joseph in the A-10 tournament, I took X and the money line, Xavier won and ended up going to the Elite Eight that year, they got screwed by the refs and should have beat Duke, but I didn't bet them that game...
Yeah that money line was sweet if I recall correctly. Wasn't Finn a freshman that year?

[Pointg5]

Yeah that money line was sweet if I recall correctly. Wasn't Finn a freshman that year?

I can't remember, but they had a big guy, can't remember his name, he started playing really well towards the end of the year, he was their key that season, it was a very good team(I hate to admit it)...

If I can brag, I have to tell about one of my worst beats, I took UCONN in the Final Four and that moron for Duke throws up a shot at the end and takes out the spread, I had that parlay crushed and I was bragging to my wife how I just made a bunch of money, she couldn't understand why I turned pale after he hit that bucket...

[2MinsToPost]

How about the pros this week? Lots of very contentious games.
I'm SOOOO MEDIOCRE at picking pro football. Every year I get in a pool at a bar and restaurant here where you have to pick every game every week against the spread. I'M ALWAYS AT .500!!!! Just one year I wanna contend for the top ten who get prizes. Hell I'd love to be the worst, even the last place guy gets a prize. I vowed this year to really pay attention and study the games.
60 games played so far this year, and what am I against the spread in my pool? 30 wins 30 losses. ARGHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I like the one I am in. We just pick the winner of each game, and then pick a tie breaker score on the Monday Night game. If their is a tie the closest who does not go over wins the pot. Then, at the end of the year they pay out to the top 3. $5 a week, with at least 30 people playing each week. Last year I won twice and finished 4th in the final standings. This year I have picked these many right - 10, 9, 8 and 8. Sucking this year.

[SniperSB23]

For example, here's what I'd do in the Alcibaides ---

Bet $2 (or whatever units your comfortable with in your wagering system) to WIN on the following horses and sit back and watch:

-X Star (10-1 ML)
-Bel Air Beauty (30-1 ML)
-Pro Pink (30-1 ML)
-Get Ready Bertie (20-1 ML)
-Gatorize (12-1 ML)
-Her Majesty (12-1 ML)

......it'll cost $12 (or whatever your units are) and you'll at least get even money and likely better if any of these fillies wins...

Good luck!

Hope you went ahead and did this.

[SniperSB23]

I'm probably betting Pro Pink, Her Majesty, and X Star so that pretty much guarantees that one of the other three you mentioned winds up winning.

And you can thank me for guaranteeing it for you. :p

[Cunningham Racing]

Hope you went ahead and did this.

Yep, I crushed the race...

Bet $20 to win on those 6....NICE WAY TO START THE WEEKEND!!! :D

Gotta love the fake $97 winner due to Polytrack, smollytrack....this will continue to happen ALLLLLL meet long....