More relatively meidocre performances by our turf and synthetic horses in Dubai

[Calzone Lord]

Dullahan and Little Mike soundly defeated in separate races in Dubai this morning.

The record of our horses on turf and tapeta over there is, has always been, and will probably always be atrocious.

However, we absolutely always dominated on the dirt over there when there was dirt.

Royal Delta (9th place) and Game On Dude (12th place) competed in last years World Cup.

Gio Ponti's 4th place finish in 2010 is our best showing in the Tapeta-run Classics.

Gio Ponti was 4th to winner Gloria De Campeao that day. The same Gloria De Campeao who was 2nd beaten 14 lengths to Well Armed in the Dubai World Cup the year before in the final dirt edition.

Yes, our wonderful six-year-old gelding Well Armed did win the Dubai World Cup by 14 lengths. And I remain on record that we won't win that race again for at least 14 years. With very few exceptions, our turf horses have utterly stunk in those races for a lot longer. That goes back to the late 90's.

[OTM Al]

Dullahan and Little Mike soundly defeated in separate races in Dubai this morning.

The record of our horses on turf and tapeta over there is, has always been, and will probably always be atrocious.

However, we absolutely always dominated on the dirt over there when there was dirt.

Royal Delta (9th place) and Game On Dude (12th place) competed in last years World Cup.

Gio Ponti's 4th place finish in 2010 is our best showing in the Tapeta-run Classics.

Gio Ponti was 4th to winner Gloria De Campeao that day. The same Gloria De Campeao who was 2nd beaten 14 lengths to Well Armed in the Dubai World Cup the year before in the final dirt edition.

Yes, our wonderful six-year-old gelding Well Armed did win the Dubai World Cup by 14 lengths. And I remain on record that we won't win that race again for at least 14 years. With very few exceptions, our turf horses have utterly stunk in those races for a lot longer. That goes back to the late 90's.

I don't mind it. Gives better prices on the ones more likely to win. Still can't believe how badly US horses get over bet in these races. It's like people just want to throw their money away.

[brockguy]

Who is the last US horse to win a G1 race away from North America? I should know this - I can remember Falbrav nosed out some US horse in the Japan Cup years ago!

[Calzone Lord]

I don't mind it. Gives better prices on the ones more likely to win. Still can't believe how badly US horses get over bet in these races. It's like people just want to throw their money away.

Yep. It's bizarre how well they continue to get bet.

Although, the Europeans had the same habit of overbetting their good turf horses against us in the dirt races back in the day. Even occasionally in the sprint.

I remember the Sheema Classic in 2007, we had English Channel, Miesque's Approval (who just dominated in the BC Mile) and Lava Man all get bet well in our pool. They finished 12th, 15th, and 16th. The winner was a Japanese horse.

The record of turf horses since the late 90's has to be comical. I don't think we've won a single race...and The Tin Man is the lone 2nd place finisher I can think of and they let him have it all his own way up front at 9 furlongs and he was a distant 2nd.

[Calzone Lord]

Inevitably, Animal Kingdom will wind up the favorite and Royal Delta will wind up the second choice in our pools this year.

At least no one will ever have to talk about the "Dubai bounce" anymore ... seeing that you, technically, actually have to run a big race in order to "bounce"

[booner]

Who is the last US horse to win a G1 race away from North America? I should know this - I can remember Falbrav nosed out some US horse in the Japan Cup years ago!

Curlin is the latest one coming to my mind.....

[brockguy]

Curlin is the latest one coming to my mind.....

I did omit a key word in my post :o - I did mean G1 turf race away from North America.

[helicopter11]

Who is the last US horse to win a G1 race away from North America? I should know this - I can remember Falbrav nosed out some US horse in the Japan Cup years ago!

Fleetstreet Dancer ---Doug O'Neil
Japan Cup Dirt 2003 G1


Not that many horses from US ships overseas as they are probably outmatched in a lot of the races (especially turf). Europeans can ship their 3rd and 4th tier horses and do well in the US.

[Calzone Lord]

Curlin is the latest one coming to my mind.....

Well Armed's 14 length Dubai World Cup win (2009) came one year after Curlin's mere 7.75 length Dubai World Cup win (2008)

Having two different American based horses, the more recent a 6-year-old gelding, win the DWC by a combined 21.75 lengths probably played a part in moving it to a synthetic surface.

[Calzone Lord]

I did omit a key word in my post :o - I did mean G1 turf race away from North America.

Gr 1 turf race in Europe? I don't know, Fourstars Allstar won a classic in the early 90's.

Americain debuted in Europe but campaigned here for five or six races and won the Melbourne Cup.

[booner]

Well Armed's 14 length Dubai World Cup win (2009) came one year after Curlin's mere 7.75 length Dubai World Cup win (2008)

Having two different American based horses, the more recent a 6-year-old gelding, win the DWC by a combined 21.75 lengths probably played a part in moving it to a synthetic surface.

Man, I keep forgetting about Well Armed. Thanks for the correction.

[PatCummings]

Man, I keep forgetting about Well Armed. Thanks for the correction.

Sorry gang, it was Kinsale King in the 2010 Dubai Golden Shaheen...and I think the next one will come in the 2013 Dubai Golden Shaheen from Private Zone.

[PatCummings]

Considering the way they ran in the 1 1/2m turf race, there should really be no doubt that Little Mike goes to the Dubai Sheema Classic.

I thought Dullahan ran OK considering he broke slow, was completely, entirely unnecessarily rushed up into a fairly solid pace, and flattened.

Overall, I take nothing big out of both of these efforts - these were totally pure prep races. Both eligible to improve next up.

[cmorioles]

Overall, I take nothing big out of both of these efforts - these were totally pure prep races. Both eligible to improve next up.

Good luck with that. I don't expect much from either next time.

[PatCummings]

I won't be betting either of them.

[Dahoss]

I thought Dullahan ran OK considering he broke slow, was completely, entirely unnecessarily rushed up into a fairly solid pace, and flattened.


Agreed. I don't think he can win in 3 weeks, but the break and ride didn't help and the goal is the World Cup, not today.

[brockguy]

Gr 1 turf race in Europe? I don't know, Fourstars Allstar won a classic in the early 90's.

Americain debuted in Europe but campaigned here for five or six races and won the Melbourne Cup.

I thought I found it - Val's Prince won the Hong Kong Cup in 1997 but it was only a G2 back then..:mad:

[Calzone Lord]

I thought I found it - Val's Prince won the Hong Kong Cup in 1997 but it was only a G2 back then..:mad:

It's probably Fourstars Allstar.

[brockguy]

It's probably Fourstars Allstar.

Or Golden Pheasant - he won the 1991 Japan Cup - Fourstars won the 1991 Irish 2000 Guineas..

[Calzone Lord]

Or Golden Pheasant - he won the 1991 Japan Cup - Fourstars won the 1991 Irish 2000 Guineas..

Charlie Wittingham trained Golden Pheasant ... that gives a good idea of how long it has been.

[Calzone Lord]

Considering the way they ran in the 1 1/2m turf race, there should really be no doubt that Little Mike goes to the Dubai Sheema Classic.

American based horses are 59-0-3-0 in Dubai World Cup races at greater than six furlongs on either turf or tapeta.

And honestly, I was shocked that they've performed that well. It feels like they're like 0 for 400 and The Tin Man was the only one top 3.

It's not like we only send bad horses either. Half of those horses are like a freaking who's who of some of our best turf and synthetic horses.

[Calzone Lord]

Record of American horses on World Cup day.

Dubai World Cup on dirt: 48-9-9-7
Dubai World Cup on Syn: 8-0-0-0 (Royal Delta and Game On Dude finished 9th and 12th as our lone two starters last year)

Godolphin Mile dirt: 26-5-3-2
Godolphin Mile syn: 7-0-0-0

Golden Shaheen Sprint dirt: 39-9-8-5
Golden Shaheen Sprint Syn: 6-1-1-1

UAE Derby Dirt: 16-4-3-2
UAE Derby SYN: 1-0-0-0

All dirt races: 129-27-23-16
All SYN races: 22-1-1-1
All Turf races: 43-0-3-0

[brockguy]

American based horses are 59-0-3-0 in Dubai World Cup races at greater than six furlongs on either turf or tapeta.

And honestly, I was shocked that they've performed that well. It feels like they're like 0 for 400 and The Tin Man was the only one top 3.

It's not like we only send bad horses either. Half of those horses are like a freaking who's who of some of our best turf and synthetic horses.

The Tin Man, Hard Buck and who else came second?

[Calzone Lord]

The Tin Man, Hard Buck and who else came second?

Whilly.

He won back to back Stakes at Santa Anita, including the Gr 2 San Marcos in his prior start.

[brockguy]

Whilly.

He won back to back Stakes at Santa Anita, including the Gr 2 San Marcos in his prior start.

Thanks - you would have thought with some of the (extremely) bizarre results we see on World Cup night that a US horse hasn't fluked a win on turf or on Tapeta in the Godolphin Mile or World Cup.

[Calzone Lord]

Thanks - you would have thought with some of the (extremely) bizarre results we see on World Cup night that a US horse hasn't fluked a win on turf or on Tapeta in the Godolphin Mile or World Cup.

Animal Kingdom might be the right kind of horse to run well for us. He handles all surfaces and his trainer (like Gio Ponti's trainer) has a European background. I still would bet against him though.

If it was still 10 furlongs on dirt at Nad Al Sheba ... horses like Game On Dude and Fort Larned would probably light up anything you can find in Europe. I'd have loved to be in your country if they ever met up with Frankel in a dirt race. As great as Frankel definitely was, you probably could have made a killing of a lifetime going around and fading him in such a hypothetical match-up.

[brockguy]

Animal Kingdom might be the right kind of horse to run well for us. He handles all surfaces and his trainer (like Gio Ponti's trainer) has a European background. I still would bet against him though.

If it was still 10 furlongs on dirt at Nad Al Sheba ... horses like Game On Dude and Fort Larned would probably light up anything you can find in Europe. I'd have loved to be in your country if they ever met up with Frankel in a dirt race. As great as Frankel definitely was, you probably could have made a killing of a lifetime going around and fading him in such a hypothetical match-up.

I fully agree with you on that - Frankel, as good as he was is bred not to run a lick on dirt and would have been a huge play against on dirt. Seeing how well Dylan Thomas ran on dirt permanently convinced me on that...

The thing I love about the Breeders Cup is that I pretty much have the choice between the Pari Mutuel (generally Euro horses) and Betfair (pretty much all US horses) so it just helps so much in making a profit. In last years Breeders Cup Classic for example 11 of the 12 horses (To Honor and Serve the exception) went off a higher price on the Betfair starting price than the Pari Mutuel.

[Dahoss]

Just want to add I've enjoyed reading this conversation. Some sharp guys discussing racing.

[PatCummings]

UAE Derby Dirt: 16-4-3-2
UAE Derby SYN: 1-0-0-0


This is a fairly liberal interpretation of "American horses" - I'd often consider ONLY horses that were regularly stabled in the US and just shipped over with the expressed consent of running on the World Cup card. By that estimate, I don't think any US horse has ever won the UAE Derby, some of those Godolphin winners counted as winners here likely shipped over well in advance of their performances.

[PatCummings]

Thanks - you would have thought with some of the (extremely) bizarre results we see on World Cup night that a US horse hasn't fluked a win on turf or on Tapeta in the Godolphin Mile or World Cup.

The home team has won every edition of the Godolphin Mile and likely will again this year - they specifically go after some of these synth loving types that have no value elsewhere. Most American horses to run in the race are square-pegged to a round hole for it, cause they wouldn't make the DWC.

[PatCummings]

The better question - why would ANYONE be interested in backing US horses in Dubai at short prices. Here are the odds of US runners on World Cup night the last three years - with one win to their credit. ROI would be $0.43

3-2
9-2 - Kinsale King $11.40
8-1
10-1
4-1
3-1
3-1
7-1
9-2
16-1
9-1
20-1
7-2
23-1
2-1
10-1
9-1
5-1
4-1
12-1
4-1
7-2
8-1
2-1
9-2
7-2

The bolded were odds from just 2012...clearly no one is learning.

[cmorioles]

It could even be argued the lone winner was a massive underlay.

[brockguy]

Pat, interesting to see.

For comparison, here are both Betfair SP prices and Industry (Bookmakers) odds for those US horses last year -

World Cup (we had our own issues here as So You Think was punted off the boards into 5/4!)
Royal Delta - 7.46/1 - 10/1
Game on Dude - 10.67/1 - 8/1

Golden Shaheen
Giant Ryan - 22.09/1 - 16/1
The Factor - 6.7/1 - 4/1

Al Quoz Sprint
Regally Ready - 21.81/1 - 20/1

UAE Derby
Lucky Chappy - 10.71/1 - 11/1

[Calzone Lord]

This is a fairly liberal interpretation of "American horses" -


I don't think any US horse has ever won the UAE Derby,

We've been over this before Pat ... and look, I understand that you have to try and be a shill for Dubai.

No US horse has ever won the UAE Derby?

#1: Express Tour: Every single one of his 4 career start before he won the UAE Derby was at Calder. Every single start after he won the UAE Derby was made in the United States.

You are the only person in the world with an IQ over 100 who thinks Express Tour wasn't a US horse.

#2: Essence Of Dubai: ALL of his races at age 2 came in the United States. He broke his maiden at Hollywood. Was 3rd in the Best Pal. Won the Norfolk. Raced in the Breeders Cup.

#3: Discreet Cat: He won his debut at Saratoga for trainer Stanley Hough in jaw dropping fashion. Sure, the Arabs shelled out seven figures for him, but he's an American horse.

#4: Regal Ransom: He also broke his maiden at Saratoga and he competed in the Norfolk Stakes. He came from the Calder 2-year-old in training sale.

All four of these horses raced exclusively in the USA as 2-year-olds and were based here the whole year. That means, going into the UAE Derby, March of their 3yo season, they're considered American horses.

[Calzone Lord]

The home team has won every edition of the Godolphin Mile and likely will again this year - they specifically go after some of these synth loving types that have no value elsewhere. Most American horses to run in the race are square-pegged to a round hole for it, cause they wouldn't make the DWC.

Godolphin Mile winning American horses:

* Grey Memo: Trained by Warren Stute -- 52 of his 54 career starts came in the United States. He twice shipped to Dubai, once winning the Godolphin Mile and once 2nd in the Godolphin Mile.

* Spring At Last: Trained by Doug O'Neill, he made 12 of his 13 career starts in the USA. His only start outside of the USA was a Godolphin Mile win.

* Diamond Stripes: Trained by Rick Dutrow Jr. 15 of his 16 career starts came in the United States. Only race outside of the USA was his Godolphin Mile win.

* Two Step Salsa: All 8 of his first 8 career starts came in the USA in 2008. He won the Godolphin Mile in March of 2009.

* Festival Of Light: Raced exclusive in the United States as a 3-year-old. Won the Godolphin Mile at age 4.


That is five editions of the Godolphin Mile won by horses who were primarily US based and US raced horses.

[Alabama Stakes]

so basically don't bet American hosses in Dubai ?:D
these stats are eye opening to say the least.

[Calzone Lord]

so basically don't bet American hosses in Dubai ?:D
these stats are eye opening to say the least.

Unless they reinstall dirt... in which case, bet them strongly, and especially sprinting where the ROI was incredible.

[brockguy]

Pat, stupid question but the tote pools that US customers bet into, they also include money from South Africa and a few other countries right?

[PatCummings]

We've been over this before Pat ... and look, I understand that you have to try and be a shill for Dubai.

No US horse has ever won the UAE Derby?

#1: Express Tour: Every single one of his 4 career start before he won the UAE Derby was at Calder. Every single start after he won the UAE Derby was made in the United States.

You are the only person in the world with an IQ over 100 who thinks Express Tour wasn't a US horse.

#2: Essence Of Dubai: ALL of his races at age 2 came in the United States. He broke his maiden at Hollywood. Was 3rd in the Best Pal. Won the Norfolk. Raced in the Breeders Cup.

#3: Discreet Cat: He won his debut at Saratoga for trainer Stanley Hough in jaw dropping fashion. Sure, the Arabs shelled out seven figures for him, but he's an American horse.

#4: Regal Ransom: He also broke his maiden at Saratoga and he competed in the Norfolk Stakes. He came from the Calder 2-year-old in training sale.

All four of these horses raced exclusively in the USA as 2-year-olds and were based here the whole year. That means, going into the UAE Derby, March of their 3yo season, they're considered American horses.

I guess my thought is that these are horses did all of their preparation in the UAE and were not shipped from America the week before the race, and put back on a plane to the US right after. Those are what I view as "American horses" to run in Dubai. You can call me a shill for Dubai racing, but if anything, I think I'm actually being quite critical of the records.

[PatCummings]

Godolphin Mile winning American horses:

* Grey Memo: Trained by Warren Stute -- 52 of his 54 career starts came in the United States. He twice shipped to Dubai, once winning the Godolphin Mile and once 2nd in the Godolphin Mile.

* Spring At Last: Trained by Doug O'Neill, he made 12 of his 13 career starts in the USA. His only start outside of the USA was a Godolphin Mile win.

* Diamond Stripes: Trained by Rick Dutrow Jr. 15 of his 16 career starts came in the United States. Only race outside of the USA was his Godolphin Mile win.

* Two Step Salsa: All 8 of his first 8 career starts came in the USA in 2008. He won the Godolphin Mile in March of 2009.

* Festival Of Light: Raced exclusive in the United States as a 3-year-old. Won the Godolphin Mile at age 4.


That is five editions of the Godolphin Mile won by horses who were primarily US based and US raced horses.

I was speaking specifically of Godolphin Miles run on Tapeta at Meydan, on the all-weather, apologies for not making that clearer. I thought the "synth-loving" comment would have made that clear.

[Calzone Lord]

I guess my thought is that these are horses did all of their preparation in the UAE and were not shipped from America the week before the race, and put back on a plane to the US right after. Those are what I view as "American horses" to run in Dubai. You can call me a shill for Dubai racing, but if anything, I think I'm actually being quite critical of the records.

Obviously, we have different definitions on what we consider US horses to be.

I looked at it this way ... if the majority of their past races and training time within the last year of the race were in the United States... they're American horses.

Maybe I shouldn't have called you a shill for Dubai racing, but you do promote it and you do a nice job of promoting it.

However, seeing you write how a stone cold Calder horse like Express Tour was going into the UAE Derby, and suggesting he isn't an American horse, but rather a Dubai horse...that's crazy to me.

We bicker about this every year ... but lets use Invasor for example.

I considered him a horse from Uruguay going into his UAE Derby run. He came into the race having won the Triple Crown in Uruguay in his most recent starts, thus he represented Urugay for that race.

Going into the Dubai World Cup, I considered him an American horse, because he spent the past 11 months racing and training in the United States.

A horse like Whilly counts as American for that reason. He came out of Italy, but Doug O' Neill had him in Southern Cal for a better part of a year and he was racing on the West Coast leading up to his 2nd place finish on the Turf in Dubai.

[Calzone Lord]

American based horses on the Turf in Dubai World Cup races.

Dubai Duty Free:

2000: Ladies Din 5th * multiple Grade 1 winner
2000: Takarian 8th
2000: Band Is Passing 11th

2001: Ladies Din 11th * multiple Grade 1 winner

2002: Val Royal 5th * Breeders Cup Mile winner
2002: Del Mar Show 10th

2004: Sarafan 10th * Gr 1 winning multi-millionaire

2005: Whilly 2nd

2006: The Tin Man 2nd * 4-time Gr 1 winner.
2006: Host 4th * Grade 1 winner
2006: Whilly 11th

2007: English Channel 12th * 6-time Gr 1 winner. Eclipse champion turf horse
2007: Miesque's Approval 15th * Eclipse champion turf horse
2007: Lava Man 16th * Grade 1 winner on all 3 surfaces

2008: Notional 16th * Thoro-Graph somehow had him the fastest horse in this race and picked him in analysis. He was beaten 29 lengths.

2009: Kip Deville 10th * 4-time Grade 1 winner. '07 BC Mile winner. '08 BC Mile 2nd place finish.
2009: Hyperberic 14th

2010: The Usual Q. T. 4th * Multiple Grade 1 winner
2010: Take The Points 5th * Multiple Grade 1 winner
2010: Courageous Cat 9th * Grade 1 winner. 2nd in '09 BC Mile.
2010: Justenuffhumor 15th
2010: Tam Lin 16th

2011: Victor's Cry 5th * Grade 1 winner



Dubai Sheema Classic:

2000: Thesaurus 13th
2000: Potrizaris 16th

2004: Hard Buck 2nd * Grade 1 winner

2005: Prince Arch 6th * Grade 1 winner

2006: Mustanfar 9th
2006: Relaxed Gesture 12th * Grade 1 winner

2007: Honey Ryder 11th * Multiple Grade 1 winner
2007: Host 12th * Grade 1 winner
2007: Obrigado 13th

2008: Better Talk Now 9th * 5 time Grade 1 winner. BC Turf winner.
2008: Spring House 10th

2009: Marsh Side 5th * Multiple Grade 1 winner
2009: Red Rocks 12th * Beat Curlin on turf in Grade 1 Man O' War for Mark Hennig the summer prior. Hennig had him this race.

2010: Precious Passion 16th * Mutliple Grade 1 winner. BC Turf second place finisher.

2011: Bourban Bay 11th * 7-time Graded Stakes winner
2011: Champ Pegasus 12th * Grade 1 winner


Al Quoz Sprint:

2010: California Flag 3rd * 2009 BC Turf Sprint winner

2011: Quick Enough 8th
2011: Stardivinsky 13th
2011: Mr Gruff 16th

2012: Regally Ready 14th * Grade 1 winner and 2nd in BC Turf Sprint


American horses in Synthetic routes in Dubai World Cup races.


Dubai World Cup:

2010: Gio Ponti 4th * 2nd in BC Classic a few months prior.
2010: Richard's Kid 7th * 2-time Pacific Classic winner
2010: Furthest Land 14th * Breeders Cup Synthetic Mile winner

2011: Gio Ponti 5th
2011: Richard's Kid 12th
2011: Fly Down 13th * last race for Zito, was 3rd in BC Classic a few months prior

2012: Royal Delta 9th * 2-time BC Ladies Classic winner
2012: Game On Dude 12th * was 2nd in BC Classic a few months prior


Godolphin Mile:

2010: Desert Party 11th as the huge favorite.

2011: Make Music For Me 7th
2011: Conveyance 8th
2011: I Want Revenge 10th
2011: Crowded House 14th

2012: Richards Kid 4th


UAE Derby:

2011: Sweet Ducky 13th
2012: Lucky Chappy 7th