Summer Bird could be HOY

[TropicalStorm]

I know Rachel beat him at her ideal distance with a weight break, but he just trounced a horse she barely beat.

If Summer Bird wins the Classic he will have won 4 of the 6 biggest races in America and he will have won om dirt and synthetic and he will have put in a full year.

It will be hard to win the Classic with the Europeans in there but I think the voters will give him HOY if he wins.

[Travis Stone]

Oh gawd.

[Indian Charlie]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4tlgrcOvR0

[freddymo]

I know Rachel beat him at her ideal distance with a weight break, but he just trounced a horse she barely beat.

If Summer Bird wins the Classic he will have won 4 of the 6 biggest races in America and he will have won om dirt and synthetic and he will have put in a full year.

It will be hard to win the Classic with the Europeans in there but I think the voters will give him HOY if he wins.

No he was born in the same year Rachel was Hence he gets 3 year old colt PERIOD.. I will say it is very hard to imagine a colt winning the Belmont, Travers, JCGC, and BC Classic and still not even considered for HOY.. Who cares about HOY anyway he is a darn nice colt.

[CSC]

[QUOTE=freddymo]Belmont, Travers, JCGC, and BC Classic and still not even considered for HOY..QUOTE]

No consideration? Let's not get carried away people, I know Rachel Alexandra is almost afforded god like status on this forum, but to say a horse that wins The Belmont, Travers, JCGC, and BC Classic especially when that horse didn't make his first career start until Mar 1 of this year shouldn't even be given consideration is really getting to the beyond the ridiculous point of discussion.

[freddymo]

[QUOTE=freddymo]Belmont, Travers, JCGC, and BC Classic and still not even considered for HOY..QUOTE]

No consideration? Let's not get carried away people, I know Rachel Alexandra is almost afforded god like status on this forum, but to say a horse that wins The Belmont, Travers, JCGC, and BC Classic all in one year from a horse that didn't make his first career start until Mar 1 of this year shouldn't even be given consideration is really getting to the beyond ridiculous point of forum discussion.
He got trounced and would be trounced again. Even Ice knows his colt is currently ZERO match for her. THIS TAKES NOTHING AWAY FROM THE COLT!

[CSC]

[QUOTE=CSC]
He got trounced and would be trounced again. Even Ice knows his colt is currently ZERO match for her. THIS TAKES NOTHING AWAY FROM THE COLT!

LOL, yep let me guess based on that one race, the Haskell. Gotcha..:rolleyes:

[freddymo]

Rachel factures races..I love Summer Bird bet the crap out of him in the Belmont and loved him in the Travers. he can never beat Rachel because he can't move with her or out finish her. Even if they throw a rabbit in a race she will just sit off the rabbit and then sprint away from him. Rachel is just faster doesn't mean he isn't a wonderful colt. Maybe next year although I would figure his days of racing are numbered....maybe 1 race left on his dance card

[brianwspencer]

I know Rachel beat him at her ideal distance with a weight break, but he just trounced a horse she barely beat.


You win the award. Right after the race, I wondered who would be the first to use that as a measuring stick for how good each horse is.

And I'm glad that among the other things we've all learned about you in the first week or so here, the fact that you have no understanding of race dynamics is something we can also add to the list of things we know for certain.

Perhaps had Summer Bird run his first six furlongs some dozen lengths or so faster than he did this afternoon, then we could possibly, maybe, hypothetically even begin to have that conversation.

[freddymo]

You win the award. Right after the race, I wondered who would be the first to use that as a measuring stick for how good each horse is.

And I'm glad that among the other things we've all learned about you in the first week or so here, the fact that you have no understanding of race dynamics is something we can also add to the list of things we know for certain.

Perhaps had Summer Bird run his first six furlongs some dozen lengths or so faster than he did this afternoon, then we could possibly, maybe, hypothetically even begin to have that conversation.
OMG I didnt realize the insanity of the post until you put it in context.

[brianwspencer]

Though lest CSC or anyone think that I'm not giving him credit, that was a hell of a run and he's a really, really, really nice colt. Just think that he's quite unfortunate to have been born the year he was.

[CSC]

It's not impossible to beat her if the race dynamics are similiar to the Preakness and or the Woodward. The Summer Bird we have seen the last 2 races would have given her alot of trouble, I find your reasoning confusing you like SB, you bet the crap out of him but you cannot entertain he can beat her, I know he would be more than a handful for her to handle given the right scenario. I give her credit for beating the likes of Macho Again and Mine That Bird in those 2 races but they are nowhere the horse that Summer Bird is, we can only hope these 2 will meet somewhere down the line, otherwise she can dine off of that Haskell win the rest of her career over SB until Jackson and Assmussen come to a consensus to try SB again.

[CSC]

Though lest CSC or anyone think that I'm not giving him credit, that was a hell of a run and he's a really, really, really nice colt. Just think that he's quite unfortunate to have been born the year he was.

Well its a slow night, I'm just trying to balance it out as much as I can here and stick one up for Summer Bird and what he has accomplished this yr.

[brianwspencer]

otherwise he can dine off of those wins over Quality Road who may or may not still be dining off his penultimate career win over a NW2X horse in Dunkirk.

FTFY

Well its a slow night, I'm just trying to balance it out as much as I can here and stick one up for Summer Bird and what he has accomplished this yr.

I have no problem with that. Just think that people who make that case have been doing it in the wrong way most of the summer.

[freddymo]

It's not impossible to beat her if the race dynamics are similiar to the Preakness and or the Woodward. The Summer Bird we have seen the last 2 races would have given her alot of trouble, I find your reasoning confusing you like SB, you bet the crap out of him but you cannot entertain he can beat her, I know he would be more than a handful for her to handle given the right scenario. I give her credit for beating the likes of Macho Again and Mine That Bird in those 2 races but they are nowhere the horse that Summer Bird is, we can only hope these 2 will meet somewhere down the line, otherwise she can dine off of that Haskell win the rest of her career over SB until Jackson and Assmussen come to a consensus to try SB again.

What do you think the chances are that Summer bird comes back at 4 1 in 8?

[TropicalStorm]

She beat him in a 9f race on a track that favored her. I doubt she beats him in the Travers or JCGC or Belmont.

He definitely is better as he goes longer. I still think Icon Project would have beaten him though is she was in there.

[JerseyJ]

Rachel Alexandra is just simply a better horse than Summer Bird no matter the race, track condition, distance, what have you. Rachel ran against Summer Bird in the Haskell over ideal conditions for Summer Bird on his favorite track which is the slop, as well as in his new style. There is no possible case that could made that Summer Bird is a better horse than Rachel Alexandra.

[Cannon Shell]

Rachel factures races..I love Summer Bird bet the crap out of him in the Belmont and loved him in the Travers. he can never beat Rachel because he can't move with her or out finish her. Even if they throw a rabbit in a race she will just sit off the rabbit and then sprint away from him. Rachel is just faster doesn't mean he isn't a wonderful colt. Maybe next year although I would figure his days of racing are numbered....maybe 1 race left on his dance card
I doubt anyone will put up enough to get him to retire. But them again someone thought Pioneer of the Nile was worth $20k a pop so who knows?

[Cannon Shell]

What do you think the chances are that Summer bird comes back at 4 1 in 8?
80%

[Indian Charlie]

There is no possible case that could made that Summer Bird is a better horse than Rachel Alexandra.

You are most wrong sir.

There are illogical cases, cases not well thought out, nonsensical cases, etc in which SB is the better horse.

There are also cases in which RA never beat SB, as well as cases in which SB actually did win the Haskell.

[DaTruth]

You are most wrong sir.

There are illogical cases, cases not well thought out, nonsensical cases, etc in which SB is the better horse.

There are also cases in which RA never beat SB, as well as cases in which SB actually did win the Haskell.

:tro:

[freddymo]

80%
Seriously..I hope you are right.. Consider he has won the Travers Belmont JCGC second to Rachel in the Haskell. IF??? he wins the Classic those odds go way down. Saw him at Monmouth and he is a very nice looking sort, apparently Birdstones are now in favor, I think he gets 100 mares at 20k(advertised) as well. Again I really hope he comes back at 4 they all should. If the friggin industry had ballz they would encourage them racing at 4. Perhaps NTRA could/would/should offer prepaid insurance to race thru 4 instead of this win and your in BS.

[Cannon Shell]

Seriously..I hope you are right.. Consider he has won the Travers Belmont JCGC second to Rachel in the Haskell. IF??? he wins the Classic those odds go way down. Saw him at Monmouth and he is a very nice looking sort, apparently Birdstones are now in favor, I think he gets 100 mares at 20k(advertised) as well. Again I really hope he comes back at 4 they all should. If the friggin industry had ballz they would encourage them racing at 4. Perhaps NTRA could/would/should offer prepaid insurance to race thru 4 instead of this win and your in BS.
I have no info that says otherwise but havent heard a peep about anyone standing this horse. 2 years ago? He would have already been signed and sealed. Would be nice to see some of the better 3yos next year so we can have a good older horse division again.

[philcski]

80%

agree- have not heard anything about him being syndicated to stand somewhere

(and hope, I really like this horse)

[Merlinsky]

agree- have not heard anything about him being syndicated to stand somewhere

(and hope, I really like this horse)

Yeah I don't see how they could afford to rush anybody off to stud unless they were some royal blue blood too fragile to risk it horse. All the better for us.

From what I could see of him coming back to the winner's circle (check the Bloodhorse video, they've got 5+ minutes including the race) he sure has the look I've always liked, not the compact muscle-bound thing some go for. It's more old school which is fitting because his trainer's got that vibe for all his newness at this level. I want SB to keep going especially so that Tim Ice can have him for another year. I think if ever a guy deserved to have a horse like that come back, it's Tim. It'd be another opportunity to showcase handling a top horse and get some more owners involved with his operation.

As much as I like SB, and I like him a lot, I just don't see him getting HOY over The Anointed One aka Rachel. I see her letting Calvin put her wherever he wants to at whatever speed he needs to to beat SB, she's that tractable. That's part of what makes her so amazing, and they all know it. Tim's flat out said she deserved it hasn't he? I could've sworn he said it on At the Races, or certainly implied it.

[jballscalls]

Summer Bird has had an amazing year and most years would be a serious serious candidate for horse of the year. He just happened to run in the same year as a 3 year old filly who is 8 for 8 and beat boys 3 times in grade 1's.

He is probably the favorite for the place spot in the horse of the year balloting though, with Zenyatta in the show spot if she wins out.

[Round Pen]

I realize it will never happen But lets See RA and SB run Against each other Going a Mile and a 1/4 I don't think she can beat him.

IF you think the Synthetic surface is the only reason RA is staying away from the BC you are sadly mistaken. Although it is not the Main reason but the distance of the Classic was a concern

[Danzig]

I realize it will never happen But lets See RA and SB run Against each other Going a Mile and a 1/4 I don't think she can beat him. IF you think the Synthetic surface is the only reason RA is staying away from the BC you are sadly mistaken. Although it is not the Main reason but the distance of the Classic was a concern


i disagree on both statements.

rachel soundly defeated summer bird. that is a fact. thoughts on what could happen is conjecture and opinion. the fact she ran the preakness while pressured throughout and won at 1/16th shorter would give me NO pause at thinking she could handle that extra half furlong. taking the way that race was run by her as how it would be run at 10f, and what she would do at the end is a stretch of the imagination imo.

[parsixfarms]

i disagree on both statements.

rachel soundly defeated summer bird. that is a fact. thoughts on what could happen is conjecture and opinion. the fact she ran the preakness while pressured throughout and won at 1/16th shorter would give me NO pause at thinking she could handle that extra half furlong. taking the way that race was run by her as how it would be run at 10f, and what she would do at the end is a stretch of the imagination imo.

Horses' form is not static. We wager on races every day trying to figure out why Horse A, who was beaten by Horse B in a given race, may not be able to do it again. I don't think there's any doubt that Summer Bird, in his 7th and 8th career lifetime starts, has improved since the Haskell. Also, the Woodward showed the effects that a long, impressive campaign had upon Rachel Alexandra. I know that it's just "opinion and conjecture'", but given what's transpired since the Haskell, had Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra raced against each other yesterday in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, I think the outcome of the Haskell was likely to be reversed.

[Kasept]

Horses' form is not static. We wager on races every day trying to figure out why Horse A, who was beaten by Horse B in a given race, may not be able to do it again. I don't think there's any doubt that Summer Bird, in his 7th and 8th career lifetime starts, has improved since the Haskell. Also, the Woodward showed the effects that a long, impressive campaign had upon Rachel Alexandra. I know that it's just "opinion and conjecture'", but given what's transpired since the Haskell, had Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra raced against each other yesterday in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, I think the outcome of the Haskell was likely to be reversed.
Tim Ice would agree with you, and he hopes/anticipates there will be chances for Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra to meet a few times next year. He thinks she has an edge at 9f and that he has an edge at 10f.

And the highlighted point above is something Ice believes is worth some acknowledging as well... that Summer Bird was giving away a lot of experience and bottom to Rachel Alexandra at Monmouth.

[Kasept]

agree- have not heard anything about him being syndicated to stand somewhere

(and hope, I really like this horse)
Dr. J has been approached and is in most serious conversation with Gainesway and Stonewall. Many others have contacted him as well.

Only an injury would prevent Summer Bird from running as a 4 year old.

[brianwspencer]

Horses' form is not static. We wager on races every day trying to figure out why Horse A, who was beaten by Horse B in a given race, may not be able to do it again. I don't think there's any doubt that Summer Bird, in his 7th and 8th career lifetime starts, has improved since the Haskell. Also, the Woodward showed the effects that a long, impressive campaign had upon Rachel Alexandra. I know that it's just "opinion and conjecture'", but given what's transpired since the Haskell, had Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra raced against each other yesterday in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, I think the outcome of the Haskell was likely to be reversed.

The Woodward may have shown some effects of a long campaign, but I believe it showed more of the effects of running a sprint race for six furlongs before trying to hold off a Grade I winning closer.

Tim Ice would agree with you, and he hopes/anticipates there will be chances for Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra to meet a few times next year. He thinks she has an edge at 9f and that he has an edge at 10f.

And the highlighted point above is something Ice believes is worth some acknowledging as well... that Summer Bird was giving away a lot of experience and bottom to Rachel Alexandra at Monmouth.

Enough of an edge to overcome the likely five length lead she would have had at the top of the lane?

[freddymo]

Dr. J has been approached and is in most serious conversation with Gainesway and Stonewall. Many others have contacted him as well.

Only an injury would prevent Summer Bird from running as a 4 year old.
Steve it is always an injury that keeps them from racing at 4..lol

You think if he wins the Classic he won't have a micro fraction 3 weeks later? lol

[CSC]

Horses' form is not static. We wager on races every day trying to figure out why Horse A, who was beaten by Horse B in a given race, may not be able to do it again. I don't think there's any doubt that Summer Bird, in his 7th and 8th career lifetime starts, has improved since the Haskell. Also, the Woodward showed the effects that a long, impressive campaign had upon Rachel Alexandra. I know that it's just "opinion and conjecture'", but given what's transpired since the Haskell, had Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra raced against each other yesterday in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, I think the outcome of the Haskell was likely to be reversed.

Your post is the most spot on in this thread, it's a distortion to think RA is 10 lengths better than SB at this point of time had they both run yesterday. One horse is getting better with maturity and the other may be showing signs of tailing off, I find it hard to believe for one moment that if Jess Jackson had thought RA was feeling good about herself and that she would run well at SA that she wouldn't be there, 8 weeks between races is more than enough time to have a fresh horse ready for the BC Classic especially for a trainer of Asmussen's capabilities. It's all conjecture what would have happened if she faced Summer Bird yesterday, my humble opinion I think she would have been up against it, Kent D was quoted there was more left in the tank if he needed it against QR and for Beyer backers it was only a 111 he ran yesterday, more than enough to give her a headache than the 107 she ran in the Woodward a race 1 furlong shorter.

[brianwspencer]

I find it hard to believe for one moment that if Jess Jackson had thought RA was feeling good about herself and that she would run well at SA that she wouldn't be there

Just for the sake of asking, why do you say that? Why is it hard to believe that he is sticking to what he said three months ago, before she "showed signs of tailing off?"

The man is keeping his word -- you doubting his intentions doesn't change that. He said he wasn't going to SA LONG before Summer Bird became this "monster" that he should be afraid of. Actually, didn't he say he wouldn't be going even before she waxed Summer Bird the first time around?

So what makes you think his thoughts are anything other than what he's stated since the very beginning?

[freddymo]

Your post is the most spot on in this thread, it's a distortion to think RA is 10 lengths better than SB at this point of time had they both run yesterday. One horse is getting better with maturity and the other may be showing signs of tailing off, I find it hard to believe for one moment that if Jess Jackson had thought RA was feeling good about herself and that she would run well at SA that she wouldn't be there, 8 weeks between races is more than enough time to have a fresh horse ready for the BC Classic especially for a trainer of Asmussen's capabilities. It's all conjecture what would have happened if she faced Summer Bird yesterday, my humble opinion I think she would have been up against it, Kent D was quoted there was more left in the tank if he needed it against QR and for Beyer backers it was only a 111 he ran yesterday, more than enough to give her a headache than the 107 she ran in the Woodward a race 1 furlong shorter.

Jess wouldn't have run her at Santa Anita if they told him he was to die the day after the race. Regressing.. respectfully she went to 7 tracks faced colts twice then older..Kicked ass and took the balance of the year off when Zenyatta bailed on Beldame..PERIOD.. She is a filly have a heart she only beat Summer Bird by 7 you think he was closing the last 1/8th or dead tired from chasing a pace he couldn't possibly stay on to.. Also Ice thinking that his colt was short for the Haskell and didn't have enough bottom (Byk you can't possibly buy this??) Umh how the FCUK did he get 12 without a bottom the first week on JUNE???

[CSC]

Just for the sake of asking, why do you say that? Why is it hard to believe that he is sticking to what he said three months ago, before she "showed signs of tailing off?"

The man is keeping his word -- you doubting his intentions doesn't change that. He said he wasn't going to SA LONG before Summer Bird became this "monster" that he should be afraid of. Actually, didn't he say he wouldn't be going even before she waxed Summer Bird the first time around?

So what makes you think his thoughts are anything other than what he's stated since the very beginning?

I think at most he would have atleast reserved the right to change his mind if she doing well, it happens all the time in this sport, plans are not set in stone. Infact I find it hard to fathom why he would have said that 3 months ago not knowing how she would be doing at this stage? No doubt what he did was the smart thing it was a brilliant Preemptive strike for HOY.

[CSC]

Jess wouldn't have run her at Santa Anita if they told him he was to die the day after the race. Regressing.. respectfully she went to 7 tracks faced colts twice then older..Kicked ass and took the balance of the year off when Zenyatta bailed on Beldame..PERIOD.. She is a filly have a heart she only beat Summer Bird by 7 you think he was closing the last 1/8th or dead tired from chasing a pace he couldn't possibly stay on to.. Also Ice thinking that his colt was short for the Haskell and didn't have enough bottom (Byk you can't possibly buy this??) Umh how the FCUK did he get 12 without a bottom the first week on JUNE???

I know she wouldn't have beaten him by 7 yesterday if at all, I was the one that posted and had wished she would have run in the JCGC, if they couldn't meet in the BC. It's on dirt you know... Now that she hasn't, I guess she can always claim she has beaten SB in the Haskell as the final chapter.

[parsixfarms]

The Woodward may have shown some effects of a long campaign, but I believe it showed more of the effects of running a sprint race for six furlongs before trying to hold off a Grade I winning closer.



I know that this sort of statement has reached the level of "urban legend" by now, but can we please stop this "she set a ridiculous pace" nonsense? Yes, the fractions that she set were fast for a 3YO filly, but she was running in a Grade I race for older horses going 9F at Saratoga. In that historical context, her opening quarter was fast, but her first half and 6F splits were about "average" for such races at Saratoga this decade (and there were 9F races run by NY-breds such as Future Prospect and Fiddlers Afleet this year that were faster to the half).

2002 Whitney (Left Bank): 23.0, 45.4, 1:09.1

2003 Whitney (Medaglia D'oro): 23.2, 46.4, 1:10.2

2004 Whitney (Roses In May): 22.3, 45.1, 1:08.4

2005 Whitney (Commentator): 23.2, 46.2, 1:09.3 (Ironically, many of the same people who have tried to knock Commentator on this board by arguing that he got away with soft fractions in his match-up with Saint Liam are stating that Rachel Alexandra survived a suicidal pace.)

2006 Whitney (Invasor): 23.0, 47.0, 1:11.1

2006 Woodward (Premium Tap): 23.3, 47.1, 1:11.4

2007 Whitney (Lawyer Ron): 23.4, 47.1, 1:10.1

2007 Woodward (Lawyer Ron): 23.1, 46.2, 1:10.2

2008 Whitney (Commentator): 24.0, 47.3, 1:11.4

2008 Woodward (Curlin): 22.4, 46.1, 1:09.3

2009 Whitney (Bullsbay): 23.2, 46.1, 1:10.0

2009 Woodward (Rachel Alexandra): 22.4, 46.2, 1:10.2

[brianwspencer]

I think at most he would would have reserved the right to change his mind if she doing well, it happens all the time in this sport, plans are not set in stone. Infact I find it hard to fathom why he would have said that 3 months ago not knowing how she would be doing at this stage? No doubt what he did was the smart thing it was a brilliant Preemptive strike for HOY.

Do you remember last year?

Whether you want to blame Robby for a premature move or not, he insisted that Curlin wouldn't go out West, for the same reason. He gave in, even though he never wanted to go out there, and the horse lost to some turf horses from Europe.

Gee, I wonder why he wouldn't be jumping out of his pants to have another go round at it. I'm baffled. It must be the extra furlong....

[Kasept]

Enough of an edge to overcome the likely five length lead she would have had at the top of the lane?
While that would all depend on the race flow to the quarter pole/eighth pole, Summer Bird will wear down opponents the longer the race goes. And as he's maturing, he's showing the ability to be placed anywhere. He certainly is getting tactical to the point where he could sit a garden trip early as Rachel Alexandra gets engaged up front. His turn of foot is much better than anyone wanted to believe, and while he may not have the brilliance and cruising speed Rachel Alexandra has, he certainly has a highly sustainable gear.

What has to be brought into the conversation is that Summer Bird is continuing to improve. Next year should be tremendously entertaining should the two of them have opportunities together. And I mean opportunities plural too, because a rivalry between them would be riotous.

[Kasept]

Steve it is always an injury that keeps them from racing at 4..lol

You think if he wins the Classic he won't have a micro fraction 3 weeks later? lol
Dr. J wants to run. He and the wife were thinking of getting out of the business... He said this week that he's waited a long time to have a horse like this and that they're having too much fun. He bred the dam. He bred Summer Bird. He wants more! You should have seen him yesterday.

I talked to Ice about it this morning, and he said the only thing that keeps him off the track next year is a serious injury.

[CSC]

Which brings us back to the original post, if he wins the BC Classic next month, which is certainly not a certainty, he deserves to have a few votes cast his way for HOY. He's get mine if I had one.

[freddymo]

Dr. J wants to run. He and the wife were thinking of getting out of the business... He said this week that he's waited a long time to have a horse like this and that they're having too much fun. He bred the dam. He bred Summer Bird. He wants more! You should have seen him yesterday.

I talked to Ice about it this morning, and he said the only thing that keeps him off the track next year is a serious injury.
Or 30 million..Look you know I would love to see him race I just figure if he wins the Classic there is zero shot..I can't even blame the owners if they dont race 30 mil is a lot of G1 wins.. Not sure the environment is 30mil friendly but you have no clue what could emerge with a BC Classic win.

[zippyneedsawin]

I know she wouldn't have beaten him by 7 yesterday if at all, I was the one that posted and had wished she would have run in the JCGC, if they couldn't meet in the BC. It's on dirt you know... Now that she hasn't, I guess she can always claim she has beaten SB in the Haskell as the final chapter.


There's little doubt about that. Summer Bird has developed into a really nice horse. I still think SB would need help up front at this point (as in Rachel getting pushed on the lead) for him to beat her.
Having them face each other on synthetic would be meaningless, IMO. It would be like having them race against each other in a turf race.. completely different surface.. and we all have to get past trying to think dirt and AW are anything similar.

[CSC]

There's little doubt about that. Summer Bird has developed into a really nice horse. I still think SB would need help up front at this point (as in Rachel getting pushed on the lead) for him to beat her.
Having them face each other on synthetic would be meaningless, IMO. It would be like having them race against each other in a turf race.. completely different surface.. and we all have to get past trying to think dirt and AW are anything similar.

Yeah maybe, but we have to live with the fact poly is part of today's racing fabric now. As long as they both run on it it is a fair match up due to the fact no one has an advantage since both are foreign to the surface. Really there was no excuse for her not running yesterday, I know JJ had the Preemptive statement she was done for the year, but the JCGC carries more prestige than the Woodward. Up until now her most prestigious win would be that race. SB's is the JCGC. Which one means more? If we get past the ga ga factor of RA, I think we would all agree SB's set of 3 gr.1's Belmont-Travers-JCGC is more impressive than RA's set of 3 the Preak-Haskell-Woodward or atleast it is on paper.

Edit-Well not really, I keep forgetting RA has a poly win to her credit.

[freddymo]

While that would all depend on the race flow to the quarter pole/eighth pole, Summer Bird will wear down opponents the longer the race goes. And as he's maturing, he's showing the ability to be placed anywhere. He certainly is getting tactical to the point where he could sit a garden trip early as Rachel Alexandra gets engaged up front. His turn of foot is much better than anyone wanted to believe, and while he may not have the brilliance and cruising speed Rachel Alexandra has, he certainly has a highly sustainable gear.

What has to be brought into the conversation is that Summer Bird is continuing to improve. Next year should be tremendously entertaining should the two of them have opportunities together. And I mean opportunities plural too, because a rivalry between them would be riotous.

They are in two completely different leagues. Who knows what happens next year but currently you have a very nice G1 colt vs. a REAL super horse (remember what Nerud told you or did you forget because we like Ice?). I am surprised that you think he would have any shot against her ever. Plus who is coming next year to sacifice a horse when they are running for 3rd money, Dry Martini or Awesome Gem?

Remember Ice is 35 years old..Nothing against him at all..But your bottom comments about Summer Bird are more relevant to Ice then Summer Bird.

[brianwspencer]

But your bottom comments about Summer Bird are more relevant to Ice then Summer Bird.

Umh how the FCUK did he get 12 without a bottom the first week on JUNE???

:tro: :tro:

[Danzig]

altho i agree that summer bird is turning out to be a good horse, there is nothing i've seen from rachel that would indicate she is tailing off, or that she won't continue to have a good year next year. mdo certainly was no slouch at four, and i douby anyone would argue that rachel has shown precocity. if anything she has shown herself to be able to run one top notch race after another, with no signs of losing a step. she ran a hell of a campaign this year-beginning to end a good one. the same cannot be said about summer bird.
at any rate, i look forward to future meetings between the two.

[3kings]

I think at most he would have atleast reserved the right to change his mind if she doing well, it happens all the time in this sport, plans are not set in stone. Infact I find it hard to fathom why he would have said that 3 months ago not knowing how she would be doing at this stage? No doubt what he did was the smart thing it was a brilliant Preemptive strike for HOY.

I think in Jackson's mind his predetermined refusal to run RA in the BC regardless of circumstance justifies(to himself) Curlin's poor performance last year. He didn't want to run Curlin on the poly and does not want to tarnish the perception of RA, like he feels Curlins' was tarnished.

[CSC]

I think in Jackson's mind his predetermined refusal to run RA in the BC regardless of circumstance justifies(to himself) Curlin's poor performance last year. He didn't want to run Curlin on the poly and does not want to tarnish the perception of RA, like he feels Curlins' was tarnished.

Yes agreed, but isn't the unknown part of racing what makes it such a great sport? If it is it's dumb reason why he isn't running her especially since she has won on poly before.

[3kings]

Yes agreed, but isn't the unknown part of racing what makes it such a great sport? If it is it's dumb reason why he isn't running her especially since she has won on poly before.

Agreed! I didn't say it was a good reason or logical, just my opinion of Jackson's reason.

[brianwspencer]

Yes agreed, but isn't the unknown part of racing what makes it such a great sport? If it is it's dumb reason why he isn't running her especially since she has won on poly before.

While I'm always torn on how I feel about Jackson, and am mostly playing devil's advocate on this particular issue -- why on Earth should he care about the "unknown" and it being "exciting?"

It's his horse, he doesn't think it's in her best interests to run on the stuff, just like he didn't with Curlin last year, and that turned out poorly.

Let's lobby Interpretation's folks to cut him back to a 5-furlong Poly allowance race this fall, it's unknown and would be exciting, right? The sport would be better for it.

[Cannon Shell]

Or 30 million..Look you know I would love to see him race I just figure if he wins the Classic there is zero shot..I can't even blame the owners if they dont race 30 mil is a lot of G1 wins.. Not sure the environment is 30mil friendly but you have no clue what could emerge with a BC Classic win.
No way he will get 30 million and why wouldnt he just wait till next year anyway? A big year next year and he will get just as much and may be dealing from strength in a better economic climate.

[Cannon Shell]

I think in Jackson's mind his predetermined refusal to run RA in the BC regardless of circumstance justifies(to himself) Curlin's poor performance last year. He didn't want to run Curlin on the poly and does not want to tarnish the perception of RA, like he feels Curlins' was tarnished.
Funny I think that Curlins perception after the race was brought into a more realistic light. He was a pretty good horse, though hardly the type that Jackson and the infidels thought he was.

[CSC]

While I'm always torn on how I feel about Jackson, and am mostly playing devil's advocate on this particular issue -- why on Earth should he care about the "unknown" and it being "exciting?"

It's his horse, he doesn't think it's in her best interests to run on the stuff, just like he didn't with Curlin last year, and that turned out poorly.



As a Broodmare prospect and not a Stallian prospect, I think he would do it for the sporting reason only, look at SB's owners, they are having a hell of a time and they have seemingly have concluded that running is better than not running taking a greater risk than a multi millionaire that JJ is.

[Cannon Shell]

While I'm always torn on how I feel about Jackson, and am mostly playing devil's advocate on this particular issue -- why on Earth should he care about the "unknown" and it being "exciting?"

It's his horse, he doesn't think it's in her best interests to run on the stuff, just like he didn't with Curlin last year, and that turned out poorly.

Let's lobby Interpretation's folks to cut him back to a 5-furlong Poly allowance race this fall, it's unknown and would be exciting, right? The sport would be better for it.
No one said he should care though a "sportsman" may have.

The point of horseracing especially for the ultra-rich is to see who's horse is best and to test your horses limits. Since handicap racing has been all but eliminated in this country, it would be nice to see owners/trainers try to test thier horses by doing different things. Surely Jackson has done that with RA but lets face it, he needs to race her at 1 1/4 next year or there will always be that knock against her. Speculating that she could get the distance and doing it are two different things. I think Freddy is nuts to think that she is in another league from Summer Bird, especially at 1 1/4 which is clearly a distance that he excells at. People get too hung up on the results of one race especially in a race where SB was clearly at a disadvantage (track plays to RA's favor not to mention he was cutting back off a 1 1/2 race to 1 1/8th which is tricky).

Anyone who says the sport wouldnt be better off with RA running in the BC has a strange outlook on better off.

[cmorioles]

Funny I think that Curlins perception after the race was brought into a more realistic light. He was a pretty good horse, though hardly the type that Jackson and the infidels thought he was.

Why, because he was only a pretty good turf horse?

[freddymo]

No way he will get 30 million and why wouldnt he just wait till next year anyway? A big year next year and he will get just as much and may be dealing from strength in a better economic climate.
Ok cant argue it is a horrible time to have a good horse but whatever the figure it is way more then they will make racing.

[Sightseek]

No one said he should care though a "sportsman" may have.

The point of horseracing especially for the ultra-rich is to see who's horse is best and to test your horses limits. Since handicap racing has been all but eliminated in this country, it would be nice to see owners/trainers try to test thier horses by doing different things. .

I watched tons of race replays from the 90's last night (do I know how to have a good Saturday night or what? :o ) and it's so completely depressing how far we've fallen from this concept...

It's also a shame that this has completely destroyed the significance of races like the Pimlico Special etc.

[freddymo]

No one said he should care though a "sportsman" may have.

The point of horseracing especially for the ultra-rich is to see who's horse is best and to test your horses limits. Since handicap racing has been all but eliminated in this country, it would be nice to see owners/trainers try to test thier horses by doing different things. Surely Jackson has done that with RA but lets face it, he needs to race her at 1 1/4 next year or there will always be that knock against her. Speculating that she could get the distance and doing it are two different things. I think Freddy is nuts to think that she is in another league from Summer Bird, especially at 1 1/4 which is clearly a distance that he excells at. People get too hung up on the results of one race especially in a race where SB was clearly at a disadvantage (track plays to RA's favor not to mention he was cutting back off a 1 1/2 race to 1 1/8th which is tricky).

Anyone who says the sport wouldnt be better off with RA running in the BC has a strange outlook on better off.


Curlin would have trounced Summer Bird.. We haven't be blessed with a big race from Summer Bird on a fast track perhaps he just loves the slop.. I like Summer Bird but so far he is just a very nice sort.. They could run around Ky and Summer Bird isn't beating Rachel.

[Cannon Shell]

Why, because he was only a pretty good turf horse?
No because he was simply a pretty good horse period.

[freddymo]

No one said he should care though a "sportsman" may have.

The point of horseracing especially for the ultra-rich is to see who's horse is best and to test your horses limits. Since handicap racing has been all but eliminated in this country, it would be nice to see owners/trainers try to test thier horses by doing different things. Surely Jackson has done that with RA but lets face it, he needs to race her at 1 1/4 next year or there will always be that knock against her. Speculating that she could get the distance and doing it are two different things. I think Freddy is nuts to think that she is in another league from Summer Bird, especially at 1 1/4 which is clearly a distance that he excells at. People get too hung up on the results of one race especially in a race where SB was clearly at a disadvantage (track plays to RA's favor not to mention he was cutting back off a 1 1/2 race to 1 1/8th which is tricky).

Anyone who says the sport wouldnt be better off with RA running in the BC has a strange outlook on better off.


I thought you said the way they keep score is with the purse money now its about seeing who is the best? Dinny Phipps must be pissed at Shug for not going in the 500k race huh. I imagine his scorecard needed the extra 200k lol

[Cannon Shell]

Ok cant argue it is a horrible time to have a good horse but whatever the figure it is way more then they will make racing.
And they will make the same or more in a years time

[Cannon Shell]

Curlin would have trounced Summer Bird.. We haven't be blessed with a big race from Summer Bird on a fast track perhaps he just loves the slop.. I like Summer Bird but so far he is just a very nice sort.. They could run around Ky and Summer Bird isn't beating Rachel.
Why would have Curlin trounced SB? At this point in their careers I would imagine they have to be pretty comparable. Macho Again almost beat RA. Enough said.

[freddymo]

And they will make the same or more in a years time


BTW Gone Astray trumps market conditions because the breeding world needs a son of the great Dixie Union badly.. Claiborne has his paddock sodded with special grass..

[Cannon Shell]

I thought you said the way they keep score is with the purse money now its about seeing who is the best? Dinny Phipps must be pissed at Shug for not going in the 500k race huh. I imagine his scorecard needed the extra 200k lol
Well if money doesnt count then why are so many horses retired so early because of money?

[Cannon Shell]

BTW Gone Astray trumps market conditions because the breeding world needs a son of the great Dixie Union badly.. Claiborne has his paddock sodded with special grass..
He will be running next year.

[Kasept]

They are in two completely different leagues. Who knows what happens next year but currently you have a very nice G1 colt vs. a REAL super horse (remember what Nerud told you or did you forget because we like Ice?). I am surprised that you think he would have any shot against her ever. Plus who is coming next year to sacifice a horse when they are running for 3rd money, Dry Martini or Awesome Gem?

Remember Ice is 35 years old..Nothing against him at all..But your bottom comments about Summer Bird are more relevant to Ice then Summer Bird.
Freddy,

You're talking about what has happened when the discussion is about what lies ahead.

And you're not giving any nuance to the appreciation for the difference between how bottom applies in a fitness race versus an endurance race.

[freddymo]

Why would have Curlin trounced SB? At this point in their careers I would imagine they have to be pretty comparable. Macho Again almost beat RA. Enough said.

Curlin, the 3 year old, was a terrific horse. Did you watch the Haskel did you see the great Summer bird with his new special high cruise speed and new early foot get buried? Did you see him gain a friggin inch on a surface he apparently thrives on.

Unfortunately you still dont comprehend that Rachel was flying the first 4 f's in the Woodward. The fact that she face 3 different runs at her while running every step with an awesome first half seems to escape you. How I have no clue. Macho ran a big race with a great set up he is certainly a Grade one talent and that day was he best effort of his life.

Curlin was at least 5 lengths faster the Summer Bird and had explosive speed. How you can compare the two is puzzling.

[freddymo]

Well if money doesnt count then why are so many horses retired so early because of money?
30 mil counts 250k doesn't.. BTW of course it counts only because it can be counted.

[freddymo]

Freddy,

You're talking about what has happened when the discussion is about what lies ahead.

And you're not giving any nuance to the appreciation for the difference between how bottom applies in a fitness race versus an endurance race.


He have no clue how either will winter and come back.

You are really going to have to expand on bottom thoughts.. Because you would think if a horse can win the Belmont he would need to be fit..lol

[freddymo]

He will be running next year.

He will be running at 5 too..

[Cannon Shell]

Curlin, the 3 year old, was a terrific horse. Did you watch the Haskel did you see the great Summer bird with his new special high cruise speed and new early foot get buried? Did you see him gain a friggin inch on a surface he apparently thrives on.

Unfortunately you still dont comprehend that Rachel was flying the first 4 f's in the Woodward. The fact that she face 3 different runs at her while running every step with an awesome first half seems to escape you. How I have no clue. Macho ran a big race with a great set up he is certainly a Grade one talent and that day was he best effort of his life.

Curlin was at least 5 lengths faster the Summer Bird and had explosive speed. How you can compare the two is puzzling.
Um did you watch Curlins Haskell? What does RA's woodward have to do with SB and Curlin? Curlins Woodward was less than impressive over a bunch of goats last year. Curlin was just a very good horse that raced as a 4 yo against mostly weak older horses except for the BC.

[Cannon Shell]

He will be running at 5 too..
He probably should be gelded

[brianwspencer]

You're talking about what has happened when the discussion is about what lies ahead.


Given that Rachel is done for the year and Summer Bird has one race left, isn't a thread titled "Summer Bird could be HOY" necessarily predicated on what has happened, rather than what lies ahead...something along the lines of a 90/10 split in that direction, at least?

Next year will be dealt with next year, if they're both still at the top of their game, that will be next year's fun - and it will be awesome. But unless we're talking about how Summer Bird could be HOY in 2010, and I've missed it, Freddy seems to be on the right track for discussion.

[Linny]

Rachel Alexandra is just simply a better horse than Summer Bird no matter the race, track condition, distance, what have you. Rachel ran against Summer Bird in the Haskell over ideal conditions for Summer Bird on his favorite track which is the slop, as well as in his new style. There is no possible case that could made that Summer Bird is a better horse than Rachel Alexandra.

I'm not convinced at at 10 or more furlongs, SB wouldn't handle RA. SB has developed alot this year. He is no longer a dead closer but a horse with a strong mid move that is game to the wire. He is unlike most US horses inthat he's better at 10f and 9. How exactly is Monmouth Summer Bird's "favorite track?" It's a track generally kinder to the leader at the top of the stretch than anyone making up ground.
I don't think that Ice would shrink at all from a 10f rematch with RA.
If SB beats all the horses RA beat this summer and several other major contenders in the BCC, esp if Sea The Stars shows up, then he has to be considered a contender for HOY.

[Cannon Shell]

The sad thing is that all we can do is speculate. Why do I have a feeling that JJ will spend more time next year mapping out plans than actually running?

[CSC]

Given that Rachel is done for the year and Summer Bird has one race left, isn't a thread titled "Summer Bird could be HOY" necessarily predicated on what has happened,

In the future I would love the next time JJ maps out a campaign for a horse, that he fits into his reasoning that the season doesn't end on the first week of September regardless of who the horse is and I am not evening talking about the BC necessarily especially when the vast majority of good horses have plans of running in November and beyond.

[Kasept]

Given that Rachel is done for the year and Summer Bird has one race left, isn't a thread titled "Summer Bird could be HOY" necessarily predicated on what has happened, rather than what lies ahead...something along the lines of a 90/10 split in that direction, at least?

Next year will be dealt with next year, if they're both still at the top of their game, that will be next year's fun - and it will be awesome. But unless we're talking about how Summer Bird could be HOY in 2010, and I've missed it, Freddy seems to be on the right track for discussion.
I didn't realize every post in the thread was supposed to deal only with the title of the thread. There was a different subplot kind of being discussed I thought, but go on talking about whatever it is you feel is most germane.

[cmorioles]

No because he was simply a pretty good horse period.

I don't buy that for a second. He ran against some very crazy pace scenarios after he returned from Dubai last year in his dirt races. They were all either insanely slow, or on one occasion, crazy fast. Neither one is very conducive to running big figures like he did as a three year old.

That said, he still won them all.

[freddymo]

The sad thing is that all we can do is speculate. Why do I have a feeling that JJ will spend more time next year mapping out plans than actually running?
Chuck the guy race hereverywhere. Who knows how she comes back. I suggest he will parade her anywhere that there is dirt. And if we are luck maybe he will try her on turf.although if she was as good on turf he might get silly and try the Arc. Imagine ASS winning at Longchamps. Oye

[Cannon Shell]

I don't buy that for a second. He ran against some very crazy pace scenarios after he returned from Dubai last year in his dirt races. They were all either insanely slow, or on one occasion, crazy fast. Neither one is very conducive to running big figures like he did as a three year old.

That said, he still won them all.
And that makes him an alltime great?

[Cannon Shell]

Chuck the guy race hereverywhere. Who knows how she comes back. I suggest he will parade her anywhere that there is dirt. And if we are luck maybe he will try her on turf.although if she was as good on turf he might get silly and try the Arc. Imagine ASS winning at Longchamps. Oye
We will see.

I dont understand why anyone would not want to see her run on polytrack but would want to see her run in a race and surface that she has no prayer on? At least Curlin was a horse with no distance limitations even though he probably would have struggled with soft turf too.

[cmorioles]

I never said he was an all time great. But he was certainly better than a pretty good horse. I imagine you would kill to have a pretty good horse, let alone one of Curlin's ability...as would any trainer.

[Indian Charlie]

I think at most he would have atleast reserved the right to change his mind if she doing well, it happens all the time in this sport, plans are not set in stone. Infact I find it hard to fathom why he would have said that 3 months ago not knowing how she would be doing at this stage? No doubt what he did was the smart thing it was a brilliant Preemptive strike for HOY.

Is it that hard to fathom that he really does hate synthetic surfaces and that he would stick to his word?

You make no sense.

[Cannon Shell]

I never said he was an all time great. But he was certainly better than a pretty good horse. I imagine you would kill to have a pretty good horse, let alone one of Curlin's ability...as would any trainer.
No Jackson did which was the point of the original post. That any trainer would want to train a horse that made 10 million is besides the point. I find is amusing that less than a year ago Curlin's "fans" and connections were calling him the greatest horse since.... and yet here we are less than a year later and RA has seemingly passed him on the greatest horse measures. And you have to believe that besides recency that his flop in the BC has to play a factor in that. The truth is that he had a very nice career but never did any thing truly extraordinary.

[Scurlogue Champ]

And that makes him an alltime great?

Of course it does.

Beating Macho Again stamps your ticket as well.

[Cannon Shell]

Of course it does.

Beating Macho Again stamps your ticket as well.
Well there are a lot of all time greats out there then

[freddymo]

No Jackson did which was the point of the original post. That any trainer would want to train a horse that made 10 million is besides the point. I find is amusing that less than a year ago Curlin's "fans" and connections were calling him the greatest horse since.... and yet here we are less than a year later and RA has seemingly passed him on the greatest horse measures. And you have to believe that besides recency that his flop in the BC has to play a factor in that. The truth is that he had a very nice career but never did any thing truly extraordinary.
Curlin was a top tier grade 1 horse and even a better talent. He was capable of extraordinary running. Grade 1 quality horses are rare enough he was certainly a cut above the average G 1 talent. And CJ or I will never or have ever called him an all time great. Rachel is without question an all time great. And it has absolutely nothing to do with beating Macho Again in the Woodward.

[Cannon Shell]

Curlin was a top tier grade 1 horse and even a better talent. He was capable of extraordinary running. Grade 1 quality horses are rare enough he was certainly a cut above the average G 1 talent. And CJ or I will never or have ever called him an all time great. Rachel is without question an all time great. And it has absolutely nothing to do with beating Macho Again in the Woodward.
I'm sure that you will howl in protest but I dont think next year will go so swimmingly for her. I do predict that Jackson avoids 1 1/4 races all year. Hopefully SB and QR also stick around and stay healthy so we can have some semblance of an older horse division.

[freddymo]

I'm sure that you will howl in protest but I dont think next year will go so swimmingly for her. I do predict that Jackson avoids 1 1/4 races all year. Hopefully SB and QR also stick around and stay healthy so we can have some semblance of an older horse division.

Which 10f races should she go in? I suggested starting her at GP at 8 in the GP handicap..Then look to the most prestigous mile race in America.. After that you need to start to get her a little break and maybe a softer spot against her own at 9..Remember there are two wonderful 3 year old fillies that maybe VERY worthy competition.. So going in the Phipps and then the Go for Wand are certainly reasonable especially if she is stretching out.. Then two for the next 3 should be strongly considered in the Whitney, Woodward, and JCGC.. Then the Classic at CD.. Who else has dirt?

[freddymo]

I'm sure that you will howl in protest but I dont think next year will go so swimmingly for her. I do predict that Jackson avoids 1 1/4 races all year. Hopefully SB and QR also stick around and stay healthy so we can have some semblance of an older horse division.


I have no clue how she will fair next year. Sometimes they get better sometimes they would be better off in foal?

[Smooth Operator]

Would be hilarious if somehow SB can beat the Euros at Anita while the 'great' filly rests in her stall.



This is like the AFC champ boycotting the Super Bowl cuz it's on artificial turf. lol

[freddymo]

Would be hilarious if somehow SB can beat the Euros at Anita while the 'great' filly rests in her stall.



This is like the AFC champ boycotting the Super Bowl cuz it's on artificial turf. lol

I wouldnt mind Summer Bird or Zenyatta winning at all.. BTW that is "All Time Great Filly"

[CSC]

Is it that hard to fathom that he really does hate synthetic surfaces and that he would stick to his word?

You make no sense.

I have no doubt he hates synthetic surfaces, I'm sure alot owners and trainers hate synth, the point is some atleast try it because that is what you do with good horses you try it when it is on a big stage. Hey if you have the all world horse of 2009, then why not show some confidence and campaign her 1 more race instead of stopping her on Sept 5. Who in their right mind maps out a campaign and says the Woodward is the final race penciled in on the yr without a chance for ammendment? Does this make sense to you? If it does we live in different universes. You said I make no sense, then I'd like to refer to not making sense as being less gullable than some of the others that are all too happy to just lap up the reasons coming from the JJ camp. I find him somewhat disingenous, then I'm all too happy to be in the minority of the opinion on that one.

[TropicalStorm]

You can't say Rachel is an all-time great unless you say Curlin was an all-time great.

Curlin's best efforts were faster than Rachels.

Curlin beat much better horses.

Curlin carried more weight.

Curlin won bigger races and much more money.

Curlin could run 10f.

Curlin actually ran 5 races in 3 weeks.

Curlin even had a grade 1 turf placing.

Rachel and Curlin are not all-time greats. That label should only be used on horses like today's ARC winner who has beaten great competition at every distance. To put Curlin or Rachel in a category with Sea The Stars is insulting to him. He isn't exactly the type of horse that would need a weight break to barely beat Macho Again or Mine That Bird.

[freddymo]

I have no doubt he hates synthetic surfaces, I'm sure alot owners and trainers hate synth, the point is some atleast try it. Hey if you have the all world horse of 2009, then why not show some confidence and campaign her 1 more race instead instead of stopping on Sept 5. Who in their right mind maps out a campaign and says the Woodward is the final race penciled in on the yr without a chance for ammendment. You say I make no sense, I'd like to refer to this as being less gullable than some that are all too happy to just lap up the reasons coming from JJ camp.
The guy bought the horse the first week in May you figure he mapped out a campaign??? Come on have a heart. They rushed her to the Preakness, drained the life out of her, rested her up crushed in the Goose, then finished up with Smashing wins against colts AGAIN and older horses..Who maps out 8 racetracks in one year for a 3 year old filly.. It was more of a circus act then campaign

[freddymo]

You can't say Rachel is an all-time great unless you say Curlin was an all-time great.

Curlin's best efforts were faster than Rachels.

Curlin beat much better horses.

Curlin carried more weight.

Curlin won bigger races and much more money.

Curlin could run 10f.

Curlin actually ran 5 races in 3 weeks.

Curlin even had a grade 1 turf placing.

Rachel and Curlin are not all-time greats. That label should only be used on horses like today's ARC winner who has beaten great competition at every distance. To put Curlin or Rachel in a category with Sea The Stars is insulting to him. He isn't exactly the type of horse that would need a weight break to barely beat Macho Again or Mine That Bird.

All time great filly..I figured you realized Rachel was a female horse I apoliges..

[hockey2315]

You can't say Rachel is an all-time great unless you say Curlin was an all-time great.

Curlin's best efforts were faster than Rachels.

Curlin beat much better horses.

Curlin carried more weight.

Curlin won bigger races and much more money.

Curlin could run 10f.

Curlin actually ran 5 races in 3 weeks.

Curlin even had a grade 1 turf placing.

Rachel and Curlin are not all-time greats. That label should only be used on horses like today's ARC winner who has beaten great competition at every distance. To put Curlin or Rachel in a category with Sea The Stars is insulting to him. He isn't exactly the type of horse that would need a weight break to barely beat Macho Again or Mine That Bird.

oh. my. god.

Curlin also had testicles.

[skippy3481]

You mean all this time and no one told me horses are diffrent sexes.... that changes everything...

[CSC]

The guy bought the horse the first week in May you figure he mapped out a campaign??? Come on have a heart. They rushed her to the Preakness, drained the life out of her, rested her up crushed in the Goose, then finished up with Smashing wins against colts AGAIN and older horses..Who maps out 8 racetracks in one year for a 3 year old filly.. It was more of a circus act then campaign

I think we need Dorothy, the Lion and Scarecrow for that to happen...she would have had 8 weeks to get ready for the BC, a man of Asmussen's training acumen has done far more with less time. As I said it was a brilliant preemptive strike by JJ for HOY, if she had lost the Woodward I wonder if the campaign would have been written in stone then?

[freddymo]

I think we need Dorothy, the Lion and Scarecrow for that to happen...she would have had 8 weeks to get ready for the BC, a man of Asmussen's training acumen has done far more with less time. As I said it was a brilliant preemptive strike by JJ for HOY, if she had lost the Woodward I wonder if the campaign would have been written in stone then?


One thing for sure was known when they bought her...She was never ever going to Santa Anita. So if that is mapping out a plan then the plan was to be as agressive as any owner has ever been with a 3 year old filly without ever considering runiing her on poly. If she would be ok on poly or not it really doesn't matter.

She won't be at Keeneland next year or Woodbine or AP unless they try her at those tracks on the grass..

[Danzig]

One thing for sure was known when they bought her...She was never ever going to Santa Anita. So if that is mapping out a plan then the plan was to be as agressive as any owner has ever been with a 3 year old filly without ever considering runiing her on poly. If she would be ok on poly or not it really doesn't matter.

She won't be at Keeneland next year or Woodbine or AP unless they try her at those tracks on the grass..


and had she not been purchased, she wouldn't have run in the preakness, haskell, woodward, etc. in my opinion, we were given more of a treat by jackson buying her-she certainly wasn't going to the classic with her former owners either.

perhaps everyone should enjoy what she did, rather than moaning and complaining about what has been left undone. in her case, she has accomplished far more than many. i don't feel cheated in the least with her campaign this year.

[Cannon Shell]

One thing for sure was known when they bought her...She was never ever going to Santa Anita. So if that is mapping out a plan then the plan was to be as agressive as any owner has ever been with a 3 year old filly without ever considering runiing her on poly. If she would be ok on poly or not it really doesn't matter.

She won't be at Keeneland next year or Woodbine or AP unless they try her at those tracks on the grass..
She most likely wouldnt have run at any of those tracks anyway.

[boswd]

IF Summer Bird wins the BC Classic then He is HOY. I know RA has been the most exciting horse this year and really has been great for the sport but I'm sorry, Belmont, Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeder's Cup Classic?
That's insane.

[slotdirt]

Curlin ran five races in three weeks? That sounds more like Kip Deville's yearly schedule.

Honestly, I don't give Summer Bird much of a shot at the Classic. If Ice and co. though the horse was a synthetic star, wouldn't we have seen him run on the stuff already?

[Cannon Shell]

Curlin ran five races in three weeks? That sounds more like Kip Deville's yearly schedule.

Honestly, I don't give Summer Bird much of a shot at the Classic. If Ice and co. though the horse was a synthetic star, wouldn't we have seen him run on the stuff already?
Uh what would be the synthetic equal to Haskell, Travers or Gold Cup?

[hockey2315]

Curlin ran five races in three weeks? That sounds more like Kip Deville's yearly schedule.

Honestly, I don't give Summer Bird much of a shot at the Classic. If Ice and co. though the horse was a synthetic star, wouldn't we have seen him run on the stuff already?

You had me through the word "star" and then lost it. Why would they run on the synth when he has proven he likes Belmont and dirt? What race was he supposed to run in instead of the Haskell, Travers, or JCGC?

The fact that they plan to cross enter him in the turf - especially considering how terribly he reportedly trained over the grass at Saratoga - probably isn't the best of signs.

[Sightseek]

Uh what would be the synthetic equal to Haskell, Travers or Gold Cup?

I get what you are saying, but Ice said that he never trained well over synthetic. Back in the spring they experimented with turf to see if they could look at that race and while he didn't school well on turf either, I think Ice said he'd nominate for both the Classic and Turf.

[boswd]

Has there been any performance comparison of a sloppy track to the synthetcs? People compare the grass to the fake stuff, I wonder if a horse like Summer Bird who runs well on an off track can translate that to the synthetics.

[NTamm1215]

I get what you are saying, but Ice said that he never trained well over synthetic. Back in the spring they experimented with turf to see if they could look at that race and while he didn't school well on turf either, I think Ice said he'd nominate for both the Classic and Turf.

He was actually with Sadler prior to going to Tim Ice and Sadler told the Jayaramans that he did not go well over synthetics at all.

NT

[CSC]

IF Summer Bird wins the BC Classic then He is HOY. I know RA has been the most exciting horse this year and really has been great for the sport but I'm sorry, Belmont, Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeder's Cup Classic?
That's insane.

It's a tough call but if he SB wins the BC Classic(WHICH IS NO GUARANTEE) I agree with you, obviously Rachel's gender adds to her appeal but I'm not sure if it is FOY(Filly Of the Year) or HOY (Horse of the year) that voters will look at, I know it doesn't enter my equation if I were choosing. That is why we have a different award for Fillies and Mares. The quad of The Belmont-Travers-JCGC-Classic certainly is harder to achieve than The Oaks-Preakness-Haskell-Woodward in my opinion and if gender has no bearing at all Summer Bird should get the nod if he can close the deal in the Classic.

[freddymo]

Respectfully, who friggin cares about HOY. Summer Bird seems like a very nice colt, Careless Jewel looks like a terrific filly, Icon Project could be a monster, Mine that Bird is a nice sort, and Quality Road seems like something that will be watching as well. BUT in 2009 (save Europe) there is only 1 horse that transcended racing. She is perhaps the greatest of her gender ever. She is spoken about in these terms by all thoses that have seen the past all time great filly's. Hence there is only 1 horse that could or should be HOY..Not that I give a hoot about the award.

[Danzig]

It's a tough call but if he SB wins the BC Classic(WHICH IS NO GUARANTEE) I agree with you, obviously Rachel's gender adds to her appeal but I'm not sure if it is FOY(Filly Of the Year) or HOY (Horse of the year) that voters will look at, I know it doesn't enter my equation if I were choosing. That is why we have a different award for Fillies and Mares. The quad of The Belmont-Travers-JCGC-Classic certainly is harder to achieve than The Oaks-Preakness-Haskell-Woodward in my opinion and if gender has no bearing at all Summer Bird should get the nod if he can close the deal in the Classic.


seems like the oaks/preakness etc would be harder to achieve since one has to be a filly to run in the oaks. that in itself makes the other three a tremendous rarity for a filly to attempt, let alone win.
on it's own merits, summer birds four wins (should he win the classic, and i don't know that he will) are good, but his loss to rachel seals the deal for many.

rachel seemingly is a victim of 'what have you done for me lately-itis'. the longer it is since her last race, the more the memory of everything she has actually achieved will fade. a shame, because she's had a hell of a year.

[freddymo]

Uh what would be the synthetic equal to Haskell, Travers or Gold Cup?

In 30 years nobody will care

[CSC]

[QUOTE=Danzig]seems like the oaks/preakness etc would be harder to achieve since one has to be a filly to run in the oaks. that in itself makes the other three a tremendous rarity for a filly to attempt, let alone win.
on it's own merits, summer birds four wins (should he win the classic, and i don't know that he will) are good, but his loss to rachel seals the deal for many.

However history says that not since Easy Goer 20 years ago has any horse achieved the N.Y triple and if he does win the BC Classic it will be a first of it's kind in racing history, everyone keeps talking about Rachel from a historical point of view and rightly so, but I think Summer Bird deserves a bit of respect in that department also.

rachel seemingly is a victim of 'what have you done for me lately-itis'. the longer it is since her last race, the more the memory of everything she has actually achieved will fade. a shame, because she's had a hell of a year.

For me I respect what she has done, you have to be not a fan of racing to not respect her year, I just don't like how it is being portrayed that she beat Summer Bird at 1 1/8 at a point of time when he was still developing and she was at her peak and though we can debate that race till the cows come home, that race far suited her talents more than Summer Bird's. He lost fair and square, okay but he took her on when the Haskell suited her game to a tee, and due to the preemptive strike JJ had in mind for HOY, Summer Bird will not have a chance to avenge that loss. Dubious or not that is the way it is.

[Smooth Operator]

Curlin = Overrated 'roid freak…




GO SB! :tro: :D

[Sightseek]

He was actually with Sadler prior to going to Tim Ice and Sadler told the Jayaramans that he did not go well over synthetics at all.

NT


For me he is definitely the hardest horse to figure out as we get closer to the BC because he is clearly the best dirt horse at the distance, but knowing that he didn't work well previously on the surface leaves so many questions.

[NTamm1215]

For me he is definitely the hardest horse to figure out as we get closer to the BC because he is clearly the best dirt horse at the distance, but knowing that he didn't work well previously on the surface leaves so many questions.

Considering his running style I don't think he's going to be a good fit at all on synthetics. He is a grinder who doesn't particularly have a burst of speed.

Of the two Triple Crown race winners that will be in the BC I'd prefer Mine That Bird but, after all, he did finish last on that surface last October.

NT

[hockey2315]

Considering his running style I don't think he's going to be a good fit at all on synthetics. He is a grinder who doesn't particularly have a burst of speed.

Of the two Triple Crown race winners that will be in the BC I'd prefer Mine That Bird but, after all, he did finish last on that surface last October.

NT

The Classic has the potential to be an amazing betting race if Sea the Stars, Zenyatta, and Summer Bird all run. They'd all take a ton of money and be huge play againsts.

[RockHardTen1985]

The Classic has the potential to be an amazing betting race if Sea the Stars, Zenyatta, and Summer Bird all run. They'd all take a ton of money and be huge play againsts.



Are you kidding me? STS is almost unbeatable over that track.

[cmorioles]

No Jackson did which was the point of the original post. That any trainer would want to train a horse that made 10 million is besides the point. I find is amusing that less than a year ago Curlin's "fans" and connections were calling him the greatest horse since.... and yet here we are less than a year later and RA has seemingly passed him on the greatest horse measures. And you have to believe that besides recency that his flop in the BC has to play a factor in that. The truth is that he had a very nice career but never did any thing truly extraordinary.

I agree with some of that. But to say he had a nice career is a bit of an understatement. He won the Preakness in his what, 5th career start? He won the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the BC Classic as a 3yo, then trounced the field in the world's richest race.

Very, very few horses show up in February in a 3 year old maiden race and do the things he did the rest of the year. While he didn't beat much at 4, he certainly did at 3.

[Kasept]

He was actually with Sadler prior to going to Tim Ice and Sadler told the Jayaramans that he did not go well over synthetics at all.

NT
That's Sadler's version. There's quite a bit he's leaving out. Everyone should reserve judgement about how Summer Bird gets over Santa Anita until they see him working.

[CSC]

For me he is definitely the hardest horse to figure out as we get closer to the BC because he is clearly the best dirt horse at the distance, but knowing that he didn't work well previously on the surface leaves so many questions.

But Ice on attheracesandbeyond was quoted as saying he doesn't think it will bother him at all. So who do you believe...

[NTamm1215]

That's Sadler's version. There's quite a bit he's leaving out. Everyone should reserve judgement about how Summer Bird gets over Santa Anita until they see him working.

What Sadler's saying could easily be wrong but based on what has been effective on the Pro-Ride for years, I don't think Summer Bird's style will play well.

NT

[Theatrical]

and had she not been purchased, she wouldn't have run in the preakness, haskell, woodward, etc. in my opinion, we were given more of a treat by jackson buying her-she certainly wasn't going to the classic with her former owners either.

perhaps everyone should enjoy what she did, rather than moaning and complaining about what has been left undone. in her case, she has accomplished far more than many. i don't feel cheated in the least with her campaign this year.

I understand what you're saying here, but Rachel's prior connections have been vilified because *gasp* they didn't wish to run against colts. That is not what Mr. Morrison said. He did not want to run her in the TC, but would entertain later races against colts. Somehow, the last part of what he said was lost, but the man did say that. I think the way Mr. Morrison has been portrayed is unfair, because he never actually ruled out running her against colts. Just not the TC.

[slotdirt]

I think Summer Bird's obviously a very nice horse, and will cherish my Summer Bird vs. Dunkirk touts of the Derby and Belmont, but I'm just not a believer of this horse when it comes to the Classic this year. He's a serious contender for 2010 though. If some random Euro doesn't win the Classic this year, I'd be shocked.

[Cannon Shell]

I agree with some of that. But to say he had a nice career is a bit of an understatement. He won the Preakness in his what, 5th career start? He won the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the BC Classic as a 3yo, then trounced the field in the world's richest race.

Very, very few horses show up in February in a 3 year old maiden race and do the things he did the rest of the year. While he didn't beat much at 4, he certainly did at 3.
True but in 1980 that would mean a lot more than now. Winning older horse races in the fall as a 3 yo really isnt much of an accomplishment when the 3 yos are better horses. No one is saying that his career was anything but successful, hell he only finished off the board 1 time but compared to truly accomplished horses he doesnt really stack up that well. Plus the way he tailed off and struggled with clearly inferior horses at the tail end of a 16 race career is telling.

[Cannon Shell]

That's Sadler's version. There's quite a bit he's leaving out. Everyone should reserve judgement about how Summer Bird gets over Santa Anita until they see him working.
I dont know how anyone can tell if a horse likes an artificial surface until they run over it in the afternoon.

[CSC]

What Sadler's saying could easily be wrong but based on what has been effective on the Pro-Ride for years, I don't think Summer Bird's style will play well.
NT

I have to disagree with this, the horses that seem to do well in general on poly/synth are one's that can reserve their energy in the body of their races and then make a 3/8ths surge when the real running starts. I don't know if SB's stride will take to pro ride but I surmise he will get the former part right atleast.

[slotdirt]

I have to disagree with this, the horses that seem to do well in general on poly/synth are one's that can reserve their energy in the body of their races and then make a 3/8ths surge when the real running starts. I don't know if SB's stride will take to pro ride but I surmise he will get the former part right atleast.

i.e., horses who prefer turf to dirt...

[CSC]

i.e., horses who prefer turf to dirt...

Or horses more like Midnight Lute and less like Fabulous Strike.

[freddymo]

I dont know how anyone can tell if a horse likes an artificial surface until they run over it in the afternoon.
Doesn't that hold true for any of the surfaces?

[NTamm1215]

I have to disagree with this, the horses that seem to do well in general on poly/synth are one's that can reserve their energy in the body of their races and then make a 3/8ths surge when the real running starts. I don't know if SB's stride will take to pro ride but I surmise he will get the former part right atleast.

You've seen Summer Bird unleash a powerful 3 furlong surge? I've completely missed it because his best efforts have been when he was able to stalk, make a gradual move and gallop his foes into the ground.

NT

[CSC]

You've seen Summer Bird unleash a powerful 3 furlong surge? I've completely missed it because his best efforts have been when he was able to stalk, make a gradual move and gallop his foes into the ground.

NT

I understand your point and agree that is his strength, however I don't think it's wise to say he can't have a more quicker move on synth. I think it's widely understood that it is harder to quicken on dirt than it is on synth and or turf. We just have to wait and see how he works on it, he's got the right jockey for that style in Kent, he's just about the best at reserving a horse and bullrushing him into a hole when he wants to.

[boswd]

another thing I think people forget is how much weight voters put on the Breeder's Cup. How many horses have won awards based soley on their BC performance. Thor's Echo comes to mind.

[parsixfarms]

another thing I think people forget is how much weight voters put on the Breeder's Cup. How many horses have won awards based soley on their BC performance. Thor's Echo comes to mind.

He needed the DeFrancis Dash to earn that title.

[Cannon Shell]

Doesn't that hold true for any of the surfaces?
no

[Danzig]

another thing I think people forget is how much weight voters put on the Breeder's Cup. How many horses have won awards based soley on their BC performance. Thor's Echo comes to mind.


sure they do, when they can't name another race in that category...it's not as tho many outside hard core race fans know that a race like the king's bishop exists.

[cmorioles]

True but in 1980 that would mean a lot more than now. Winning older horse races in the fall as a 3 yo really isnt much of an accomplishment when the 3 yos are better horses. No one is saying that his career was anything but successful, hell he only finished off the board 1 time but compared to truly accomplished horses he doesnt really stack up that well. Plus the way he tailed off and struggled with clearly inferior horses at the tail end of a 16 race career is telling.

As I said earlier, I wouldn't say he struggled because he was tailing off. In each race, the others obviously knew he was the horse to beat and rode to try to beat him. The pace was very, very slow in the Foster and JCGC and he still overcame it. In the Woodward, it was insanely fast.

You should know margin of victory doesn't always indicate how superior a horse is. Of course, those who think RA can't get 10f based on the results of the Preakness and Woodward are making the same mistake.

[Smooth Operator]

Bush-league call by Jackson

Track will be dry and fair at Anita ... weather will be gorgeous

BIGGEST day on the racing calendar ... multiple international runners suiting up ... and the 'great' filly will be standing around in some barn in KY.

Disgraceful


If Jackson actually believes that the racing surface beat Curlin last year, he simply hasn't come to grips with reality yet.


Would love to see Birdie roll ... and the voters penalize Jackson for not letting the filly compete at the WORLD THOROUGHBRED CHAMPIONSHIPS...

[cmorioles]

Bush-league call by Jackson

Track will be dry and fair at Anita ... weather will be gorgeous

BIGGEST day on the racing calendar ... multiple international runners suiting up ... and the 'great' filly will be standing around in some barn in KY.

Disgraceful


If Jackson actually believes that the racing surface beat Curlin last year, he simply hasn't come to grips with reality yet.


Would love to see Birdie roll ... and the voters penalize Jackson for not letting the filly compete at the WORLD THOROUGHBRED CHAMPIONSHIPS...

The Breeder's Cup has sabotaged so many formerly great races, I think it is a good thing that a great horse intentionally skips it. It is even better since the BC sabotaged itself by running the races on rubber two years in a row.

Imagine if the first Breeder's Cup had been run on turf, which is a lot closer to synthetics than dirt. Would it have taken off like it did? My guess is no, so why now are we supposed to pretend dirt racing doesn't matter because it is being run on a surface nothing like dirt for two years running?

[gamblin4ever]

Are you sure RA not running in B/C. If Jackson thinks she has HOY sewn up then she wont run, but if there is a chance she loses HOY for not running he might have her run. It's still too early to know.

[Antitrust32]

It's not impossible to beat her if the race dynamics are similiar to the Preakness and or the Woodward. The Summer Bird we have seen the last 2 races would have given her alot of trouble, I find your reasoning confusing you like SB, you bet the crap out of him but you cannot entertain he can beat her, I know he would be more than a handful for her to handle given the right scenario. I give her credit for beating the likes of Macho Again and Mine That Bird in those 2 races but they are nowhere the horse that Summer Bird is, we can only hope these 2 will meet somewhere down the line, otherwise she can dine off of that Haskell win the rest of her career over SB until Jackson and Assmussen come to a consensus to try SB again.


i dont get how you give Rachel no credit for kicking the crap outta summer bird, and then say his last two races are this and that when she kicked the crap out of him the race before his last two races! Its like you feel he got SOOO much better between the Haskel and Travers when he is the same horse!

It makes no sense. She ran over the SAME horse who won the Travers and JCGC. SB is a real nice colt, but damn, the performance on the race track just doesnt cut it for ya does it?

[Antitrust32]

Rachel Alexandra is just simply a better horse than Summer Bird no matter the race, track condition, distance, what have you. Rachel ran against Summer Bird in the Haskell over ideal conditions for Summer Bird on his favorite track which is the slop, as well as in his new style. There is no possible case that could made that Summer Bird is a better horse than Rachel Alexandra.


thank you!

[the_fat_man]

It makes no sense. She ran over the SAME horse who won the Travers and JCGC. SB is a real nice colt, but damn, the performance on the race track just doesnt cut it for ya does it?

I sit here and I read this **** and I just shake my head. HOW EXACTLY is SB a 'real nice' horse? Or, even better than that, according to some? Who has he beaten? The older horses all suck. He got the best possible setup in the Belmont. And, he basically beat nothing in his past 2 races. The Travers field was a ****in joke. Unless, of course, we want to think along with all the 'speed' freaks that Quality Road is a superstar on anything other than a souped up speed favoring track.

I really want to see SB run in the Classic and try to ***** his way to another perfect trip against some of the more talented, long winded Euro's. Enough with this plug.

POLY will expose this plug for what it is: an OPPORTUNISTIC DIRT runner. Sooner or later all these horses have to show what they have on a FAIR surface. And, seeing how so many of the DIRT LOVERS are constantly whining about POLY, I guess they don't like their 'fast horses' getting bent over in fair races. Sucks when you're accustomed to betting the BIASED way. Times are changing.

[Coach Pants]

He probably won over 7 figures with that 9/2 shot Saturday because he is strutting around here like a Steven H Crist/Andy Beyer love child.

To say Summer Bird is a plug is borderline retarded.

[CSC]

[QUOTE]i dont get how you give Rachel no credit for kicking the crap outta summer bird,

I love it when people refer to the Haskell as the defining race in the legacy of how much better(not my belief however)Rachel is to Summer Bird based on one isolated race, how's this scenario SB kicked the crap out of Macho Again in The JCGC, a horse that Rachel was life and death to beat in the Woodward a month earlier, thus Summer Bird must have improved(actually he has) since the Haskell that Rachel isn't in the same league as him now.(present tense)

That's the problem with looking at things in black and white. There is no medium ground, no room for common sense analysis. Just as it is illogical to not see that Summer Bird improved since The Haskell, that the track at Monmouth favored RA more than SB, and that that race was at 1 1/8 and not the 1 1/4 of the JCBC all at a time when he was still getting better.(present tense) You go keep believing RA is 7 lengths better than Summer Bird is, that's cool with me, and I'll go on not believing that Summer Bird is 10 lengths better the RA since he beat Macho Again by pole Sat. Which makes more sense?

[Antitrust32]

[QUOTE]


For me I respect what she has done, you have to be not a fan of racing to not respect her year, I just don't like how it is being portrayed that she beat Summer Bird at 1 1/8 at a point of time when he was still developing and she was at her peak and though we can debate that race till the cows come home, that race far suited her talents more than Summer Bird's. He lost fair and square, okay but he took her on when the Haskell suited her game to a tee, and due to the preemptive strike JJ had in mind for HOY, Summer Bird will not have a chance to avenge that loss. Dubious or not that is the way it is.


He won the Classic Belmont, then "developed" in the Haskell, and then won the Travers & JCGC.

You make no sense. He only "developed" in that race because its the only way you can make your argument.

[slotdirt]

To be fair in recompense, did it really require much developing for Summer Bird to dispatch with Dunkirk, Mine that Bird, and Charitable Man in the Belmont?

[Antitrust32]

Are you sure RA not running in B/C. If Jackson thinks she has HOY sewn up then she wont run, but if there is a chance she loses HOY for not running he might have her run. It's still too early to know.


yes, she will NOT be in the BC. If she had been in full training for the month of September I would say I guess there could be a possibility of Jackson changing his mind, but since she has not been in full training she will 100% not be there.

[NTamm1215]

I'd love to know how anyone could say that the track playing more towards Rachel Alexandra's strengths helped her beat SB in the Haskell when the fact of the matter is that they were basically eyeball to eyeball around the turn. If anything, he was short from running in two Triple Crown races, but she ran in the Oaks and Preakness herself.

The excuse wagon could go on and on and on but the bottom line is that Rachel Alexandra beat Summer Bird like a drum at Mth. Is he a better horse now? Probably but unfortunately we'll have to wait until next year to find out if he's now better than her.

NT

[dalakhani]

[QUOTE=CSC]


He won the Classic Belmont, then "developed" in the Haskell, and then won the Travers & JCGC.

You make no sense. He only "developed" in that race because its the only way you can make your argument.

Is it fair to say that Curlin was a more developed horse at the BC his three year old year than he was at Monmouth a few months earlier? Was Tiznow the same horse at the BC in 2000 as he was in the Pacific classic a few months earlier?

I think you can find plenty of examples, especially in three year olds, where there is rapid development and improvement within just a few months.

[Antitrust32]

I sit here and I read this **** and I just shake my head. HOW EXACTLY is SB a 'real nice' horse? Or, even better than that, according to some? Who has he beaten? The older horses all suck. He got the best possible setup in the Belmont. And, he basically beat nothing in his past 2 races. The Travers field was a ****in joke. Unless, of course, we want to think along with all the 'speed' freaks that Quality Road is a superstar on anything other than a souped up speed favoring track.

I really want to see SB run in the Classic and try to ***** his way to another perfect trip against some of the more talented, long winded Euro's. Enough with this plug.

POLY will expose this plug for what it is: an OPPORTUNISTIC DIRT runner. Sooner or later all these horses have to show what they have on a FAIR surface. And, seeing how so many of the DIRT LOVERS are constantly whining about POLY, I guess they don't like their 'fast horses' getting bent over in fair races. Sucks when you're accustomed to betting the BIASED way. Times are changing.


Wow! I get all this for calling SB a "real nice colt". What am I supposed to call the Belmont/Travers/JCGC winner? He sucks?

And I agree that he will not win the Classic. Every single post I've made about him and the classic were the same as what you just said.

He deserves credit for the races he's won. He's a real nice colt. He's no Rachel and he wont be winning the classic. The best turf horse out there will be winning the classic.

Why do you hate dirt so much and do you really feel that Poly plays like a dirt track more than a turf track? Poly is basically Turf II

[CSC]

[QUOTE=CSC]


He won the Classic Belmont, then "developed" in the Haskell, and then won the Travers & JCGC.

You make no sense. He only "developed" in that race because its the only way you can make your argument.

You fail to understand he is a better horse today(present) than he was in the Haskell or Belmont, what is hard to accept or understand about this from a 3 yr old colt that broke his Mdn in Mar of this yr? Again not to reiterate The JCGC and The BC Classic is at 1 1/4 a he distance he has already proven to be very adept at running at. RA hasn't and I suspect she will have to one day so that Jess can have his legacy preserved for her.

[Indian Charlie]

You make no sense.

Hey, that's what I said! Stop stealing my stuff!

Do you like though his Macho Again analogy where he completely disregards what happened in those two races?

And his adamant refusal to address that?

[CSC]

[QUOTE=Antitrust32]

Is it fair to say that Curlin was a more developed horse at the BC his three year old year than he was at Monmouth a few months earlier? Was Tiznow the same horse at the BC in 2000 as he was in the Pacific classic a few months earlier?

I think you can find plenty of examples, especially in three year olds, where there is rapid development and improvement within just a few months.

The point is alot of smart handicappers here recognize Summer Bird was a better horse in the Travers and JCGC, showing tractibility, stamina, and finish in those races, the beyers will of 110-111 will back this up. The issue we are addressing here is, is to the crowd that still believe that RA is 7 lengths better than SB is, my point all along as much as people keep wanting to make this a Haskell argument, is that in the present day, looking forward RA would have had an extreme challenge beating Summer Bird today and had she run in the JCGC she would have lost, This is what I am talking about future races, the races to come, not what has happened.

[CSC]

Hey, that's what I said! Stop stealing my stuff!

Do you like though his Macho Again analogy where he completely disregards what happened in those two races?

And his adamant refusal to address that?

On the refusal to address issues, I wrote you a nice long reply yesterday you ignored, you out of smart replies? Other than 'you make no sense'. Just brillant!

[philcski]

I sit here and I read this **** and I just shake my head. HOW EXACTLY is SB a 'real nice' horse? Or, even better than that, according to some? Who has he beaten? The older horses all suck. He got the best possible setup in the Belmont. And, he basically beat nothing in his past 2 races. The Travers field was a ****in joke. Unless, of course, we want to think along with all the 'speed' freaks that Quality Road is a superstar on anything other than a souped up speed favoring track.

I really want to see SB run in the Classic and try to ***** his way to another perfect trip against some of the more talented, long winded Euro's. Enough with this plug.

POLY will expose this plug for what it is: an OPPORTUNISTIC DIRT runner. Sooner or later all these horses have to show what they have on a FAIR surface. And, seeing how so many of the DIRT LOVERS are constantly whining about POLY, I guess they don't like their 'fast horses' getting bent over in fair races. Sucks when you're accustomed to betting the BIASED way. Times are changing.

You are so full of **** it flows out of your eyes.

I guess Easy Goer was a plug, too.

[CSC]

You are so full of **** it flows out of your eyes.

I guess Easy Goer was a plug, too.

+1 :tro: One of the most assinine Fatman posts I have glanced at in awhile and that's saying something.

[Sightseek]

+1 :tro: One of the most assinine Fatman posts I have glanced at in awhile and that's saying something.

:tro:

[Antitrust32]

[QUOTE=dalakhani]

The point is alot of smart handicappers here recognize Summer Bird was a better horse in the Travers and JCGC, showing tractibility, stamina, and finish in those races, the beyers will of 110-111 will back this up. The issue we are addressing here is, is to the crowd that still believe that RA is 7 lengths better than SB is, my point all along as much as people keep wanting to make this a Haskell argument, is that in the present day, looking forward RA would have had an extreme challenge beating Summer Bird today and had she run in the JCGC she would have lost, This is what I am talking about future races, the races to come, not what has happened.


The thing is, Summer Bird ran a REAL NICE RACE (expecting to get bitched out by fatman for this) in the Haskell. I thought he ran as well there as he did in the Travers. Rachel was hands down spectacular that day, just off the track record on a wet track.. but Summer bird ran his eyeballs out in that race and ran a winning Haskel race, if she hadnt done what she did.

So I just dont see the huge improvement when I thought SB ran very well in the Haskell too. It would be one thing if he would have lost by 30 lengths and ran last, but he was a "real nice colt" in that race too.

[the_fat_man]

You are so full of **** it flows out of your eyes.

I guess Easy Goer was a plug, too.

Another behind the times dirt lover who can't come to grips with the NEW PARADIGM.

Kind of sucks that I can WIN, and win at a ridiculously HIGH RATE, playing POLY with NO FIGURES, doesn't it Phil? :rolleyes:

My ****in ROI at WO, is RIDICULOUS, bro.

Put down the figures, and join the FAIR RACING club.

[CSC]

[QUOTE=CSC]


He won the Classic Belmont, then "developed" in the Haskell, and then won the Travers & JCGC.

You make no sense. He only "developed" in that race because its the only way you can make your argument.

Okay let's use just say he is a different horse today than he was then and that he has developed into a better horse. If you didn't understand the jist of my comment, though I thought it was obvious, my regrets.

[Antitrust32]

[QUOTE=Antitrust32]

Okay let's use just say he is a different horse today than he was then and that he has developed into a better horse. If you didn't understand the jist of my comment, though I thought it was obvious, my regrets.



Just ignore that post of mine and check out reply #163. I put my feelings into words better there.

[the_fat_man]

[QUOTE=CSC]


The thing is, Summer Bird ran a REAL NICE RACE (expecting to get bitched out by fatman for this) in the Haskell. I thought he ran as well there as he did in the Travers. Rachel was hands down spectacular that day, just off the track record on a wet track.. but Summer bird ran his eyeballs out in that race and ran a winning Haskel race, if she hadnt done what she did.

So I just dont see the huge improvement when I thought SB ran very well in the Haskell too. It would be one thing if he would have lost by 30 lengths and ran last, but he was a "real nice colt" in that race too.

SB chased in the Haskell and beat a bunch of nothings and a distance challenged Munnings for place. I give SB his due but he just hasn't beaten a REAL horse.

To put things in proper perspective, look at the thread of best Beyers by 3 year olds this year:

You have Munnings with a bunch of 110s or 111s and you have Zensational with a single 111. In what ****in' UNIVERSE other than BEYER LAND or a biased DIRT TRACK does Munnings do anything but SNIFF Zensational's ass? Or that freak at WO that just won the other day running those insane splits? Where's his 'fast' Beyer?

The old paradigm leads to cluelessness.

[Antitrust32]

[QUOTE=Antitrust32]

SB chased in the Haskell and beat a bunch of nothings and a distance challenged Munning for place. I give SB his due but he just hasn't beaten a REAL horse.

To put things in proper perspective, look at the thread of best Beyers by 3 year olds this year:

You have Munnings with a bunch of 110s or 111s and you have Zensational with a single 111. In what ****in' UNIVERSE other than BEYER LAND or a biased DIRT TRACK does Munnings do anything but SNIFF Zensational's ass? Or that freak at WO that just won the other day running those insane splits? Where's his 'fast' Beyer?

The old paradigm leads to cluelessness.



You have to understand my perspective, I dont bet much at all. I like to follow dirt and turf racing, and I have yet to follow poly racing. I havent checked out the stats lately, but when poly was in its initial stages, there were full fields galore, which leads to better gambling opportunities, though you disagree with that I think.

So we have two completely different thought processes. You want to make money, and I follow this sport like I do the NFL, and only once and awhile to I make a bet.

[CSC]

[QUOTE=CSC]


The thing is, Summer Bird ran a REAL NICE RACE (expecting to get bitched out by fatman for this) in the Haskell. I thought he ran as well there as he did in the Travers. Rachel was hands down spectacular that day, just off the track record on a wet track.. but Summer bird ran his eyeballs out in that race and ran a winning Haskel race, if she hadnt done what she did.

So I just dont see the huge improvement when I thought SB ran very well in the Haskell too. It would be one thing if he would have lost by 30 lengths and ran last, but he was a "real nice colt" in that race too.

He just ran in the Belmont(his 5th career race), cut back from 1 1/2 after a breakthru win, never showed any tractibility at that point, was put on the pace to engage Munnings, ran on a track that will most will concede was more beneficial to RA's style than SB's and still hung on for second. Given the context of these things yes it was a good race, but to suggest he is 7 lengths worser to a horse at 1 1/8, a horse that had infinite amounts of exp over SB. Are these excuses no...but in the context in which this discussion has turned the comments of beating SB like a drum, the implication that he is somewhat inferior to her, they do not belong in the same league, this distortion has to be addressed. Did she beat him by 7 in the Haskell yes, it's in the charts why anyone is even addressing this is a waste of time, will she beat him by 7 again or had they met in the JCGC Sat, I say not a chance she would have.

[Cannon Shell]

As I said earlier, I wouldn't say he struggled because he was tailing off. In each race, the others obviously knew he was the horse to beat and rode to try to beat him. The pace was very, very slow in the Foster and JCGC and he still overcame it. In the Woodward, it was insanely fast.

You should know margin of victory doesn't always indicate how superior a horse is. Of course, those who think RA can't get 10f based on the results of the Preakness and Woodward are making the same mistake.
Seriously you believe this? There was some kind of pace conspiracy??? I just thought they rode their slow horses the same way they always did. Honestly as bad as this years older horses were in the Woodward and Gold Cup, last years may very well have been worse. So if they go too slow he has an excuse and when they go fast he has an excuse? I guess we will agree to disagree that his uninspiring performances last fall were questionably inspiring.

[CSC]

[QUOTE=Antitrust32]

SB chased in the Haskell and beat a bunch of nothings and a distance challenged Munnings for place. I give SB his due but he just hasn't beaten a REAL horse.

To put things in proper perspective, look at the thread of best Beyers by 3 year olds this year:

You have Munnings with a bunch of 110s or 111s and you have Zensational with a single 111. In what ****in' UNIVERSE other than BEYER LAND or a biased DIRT TRACK does Munnings do anything but SNIFF Zensational's ass? Or that freak at WO that just won the other day running those insane splits? Where's his 'fast' Beyer?

The old paradigm leads to cluelessness.

I already posted the context of the Haskell race too many times, look for a 3 year old that just started running on Mar 3rd of this year, he's already accomplished alot. A hell of alot more than many 3 yr olds that have been declared great or atleast very good by some, your argument may have some legitimacy next year though I doubt it, he's the real deal. But realistically who can you expect from a horse to beat after only 9 career races. He will prove this in time.

[cmorioles]

Seriously you believe this? There was some kind of pace conspiracy??? I just thought they rode their slow horses the same way they always did. Honestly as bad as this years older horses were in the Woodward and Gold Cup, last years may very well have been worse. So if they go too slow he has an excuse and when they go fast he has an excuse? I guess we will agree to disagree that his uninspiring performances last fall were questionably inspiring.

If you thought that you should probably stick to training.

Honestly, you think a horse that closes off a slow pace and still wins is going to earn the same figures he did when the pace is very fast?

If you and I had a 100 meter race, an we walked 90 meters and I gave you a 5 meter head start, I would probably only beat you by a meter. It doesn't mean I've gotten slower.

[Cannon Shell]

If you thought that you should probably stick to training.

Honestly, you think a horse that closes off a slow pace and still wins is going to earn the same figures he did when the pace is very fast?

If you and I had a 100 meter race, an we walked 90 meters and I gave you a 5 meter head start, I would probably only beat you by a meter. It doesn't mean I've gotten slower.
I never said anything about figures. Just watch the races again. He struggles to catch and put away very weak competition, which is something that he hadnt had trouble with before. In both the Woodward and Gold Cup he cant dispose of Wandering Boy till deep in the lane. In the Woodward they ran the last 1/8th in 14.
If you want to believe that struggling to beat Past the Point and Wandering Boy was because of some sort of pace scenario, that is fine. But when you say he struggled to run past them because the pace was in one case too slow and in one case too fast makes me wonder how it works both ways.

[philcski]

Another behind the times dirt lover who can't come to grips with the NEW PARADIGM.

Kind of sucks that I can WIN, and win at a ridiculously HIGH RATE, playing POLY with NO FIGURES, doesn't it Phil? :rolleyes:

My ****in ROI at WO, is RIDICULOUS, bro.

Put down the figures, and join the FAIR RACING club.

Do you read anything or just assume everything? How many times have I disparaged Beyer figures on here as useless and unimportant?

Slow horses, however, should not benefit from ANY surface, and the fact of the matter is SLOW horses win too many races on synthetics.

Quite frankly, I don't care what your ROI is at Woodbine, either.

[Coach Pants]

http://i96.photobucket.com/albums/l175/getchadsucked/pp.jpg

[The Indomitable DrugS]

In both the Woodward and Gold Cup he cant dispose of Wandering Boy till deep in the lane. In the Woodward they ran the last 1/8th in 14.
If you want to believe that struggling to beat Past the Point and Wandering Boy was because of some sort of pace scenario, that is fine.

Wanderin Boy ran a 109 Beyer without any real smoke and mirrors in his start prior to his two meetings with Curlin.

Past The Point ran a 106 in his start prior without any real smoke and mirrors.


Those may not be horses with big resumes - but assuming they run back to those type of sharp races ... it takes an extremely good horse to make wide sweeping turn moves and blow them away with ease.

Compared to a WILDLY overrated horse like Street Sense - and very over rated horses like Any Given Saturday and Hard Spun ... I'd consider Curlin to be only just plain overrated.

[Revidere]

I make a motion to have another board. This Rachel Alexandra can do no wrong board is too full.

This is very disturbing. When RA beats a horse like Macho Again, it's a great achievment. When Summer Bird and Quality Road do it, a slow older horse is just a slow older horse and SB has just gotten lucky against some suspect fields. Hmmm. So, when Rachel beats Flashing by 20 lengths it's awe inspiring, even more so when Flashing wins the Test. But the beyer guys are noticeably silent when that Test victory earns a high 80's beyer. And since those guys like to crow about Zenyatta's low beyers and suspect competition, I can honestly say I'm confused about what a good horse is or what a bad horse is, what a fast horse is, or a slow horse is.

All I know is it's October and we've had some real nice performances this year. I would even venture to say it's been a really good year.

Can't we enjoy them all?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

This is very disturbing. When RA beats a horse like Macho Again, it's a great achievment. When Summer Bird and Quality Road do it, a slow older horse is just a slow older horse

I would suggest perhaps making an effort to learn basic fundamental handicapping skills.


Trader Pete ... like everyone else with an IQ over 40 ... realized that Macho Again was the #1 horse to avoid type bet against coming out of Saratoga.


* Macho Again (Arrived at Saratoga off of a mediocre Grade 1 win in the Foster. His final time that day was 0.16 seconds slower than Miss Isella and Swift Temper went in a similarly paced Grade 2 stake on the same card - at the same distance. I know Miss Isella is a different kind of horse at Churchill and Swift Temper came back to beat Icon Project with a perfect trip next out - but it was still as soft a Grade 1 win as you'll see in the handicap division.

Got a great 116 pace figure to close into when 2nd in the Whitney. In the Woodward, he was more than 15 lengths off of the blistering 22.86 opening quarter .. 8 lengths further back than the horse racing 2nd to last at that stage. In spite of being positioned perfectly and getting a dream run through the pack without looping the field .. he hung badly and never looked like he was going to pass a very softened up Rachel Alexandra at any point. He's less than nothing special .. and his resume looks strong off of his last 3 races.

[cmorioles]

I never said anything about figures. Just watch the races again. He struggles to catch and put away very weak competition, which is something that he hadnt had trouble with before. In both the Woodward and Gold Cup he cant dispose of Wandering Boy till deep in the lane. In the Woodward they ran the last 1/8th in 14.
If you want to believe that struggling to beat Past the Point and Wandering Boy was because of some sort of pace scenario, that is fine. But when you say he struggled to run past them because the pace was in one case too slow and in one case too fast makes me wonder how it works both ways.

OK, so how do you explain Zenyatta beating that slug last out by a nose if the slow pace didn't matter?

I'm sorry you don't understand how it can work both ways. It is pretty obvious when you make pace figures for a living. In the Past the Point race, Curlin ran about 10 Beyer points faster to the pace call than he did any other route race in his life to maintain his usual stalking position. Of course he wasn't going to have his usual finishing kick.

[the_fat_man]

Do you read anything or just assume everything? How many times have I disparaged Beyer figures on here as useless and unimportant?

Slow horses, however, should not benefit from ANY surface, and the fact of the matter is SLOW horses win too many races on synthetics.

Quite frankly, I don't care what your ROI is at Woodbine, either.

Maybe the problem, then, PHil, is what I've been alluding to all along: that the METHODOLOGY is flawed. Since these aren't time trials, with horses running individually or restricted to lanes, maybe the 'fastest' notion in terms of a number is not the way to go. If so many SLOW horses are winning on synthetics, then, I know that if I were a trainer or owner, I'd get my stock over there and win a whole bunch of races with my fast dirt horses. That this isn't happening sort of works against the methodology, don't you think?

I mean, arguing that these horses are SLOW is like the learned Jesuits of Galileo's era arguing for an Aristotelian view of the world because the CHURCH told them to save that view at all cost. What exactly is the excuse for all the BEYERITES here continuing to argue that these horses are SLOW? Time for a paradigm shift when your theory leads to ridiculous results.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

OK, so how do you explain Zenyatta beating that slug last out by a nose if the slow pace didn't matter?

I'm sorry you don't understand how it can work both ways. It is pretty obvious when you make pace figures for a living. In the Past the Point race, Curlin ran about 10 Beyer points faster to the pace call than he did any other route race in his life to maintain his usual stalking position. Of course he wasn't going to have his usual finishing kick.


I wouldn't agree that the obvious hot pace in last year's Woodward really hurt Curlin's chances or led to him running a sub-par race. It only made him finish very slow .. though still faster than how all the others finished.

The 112 Beyer he got in that race was actually outright the 3rd best of his entire career.

Curlin's a naturally fast horse who won his debut wire-to-wire sprinting with a triple digit Beyer ... laying 5.5 lengths off of razor sharp alw horses rolling along up front should hinder them more so than him.

I don't think it's a case like a Point Given in the Ky Derby... because PG didn't have quite the raw speed of a Curlin.

In one extreme example, you're talking about a 3yo going 10fs in May while hung very wide on both turns chasing a scorching fast pace in a huge field very deep in talent.

In the Curlin Woodward example, you're talking about an older horse going 9fs chasing a very strong pace in a smaller field pretty much void of any other real Grade 1 talent.

[Indian Charlie]

On the refusal to address issues, I wrote you a nice long reply yesterday you ignored, you out of smart replies? Other than 'you make no sense'. Just brillant!

I must have missed it.

I guess I'm not as brillant as you.

[the_fat_man]

Curlin's a naturally fast horse who won his debut wire-to-wire sprinting with a triple digit Beyer ... laying 5.5 lengths off of razor sharp alw horses rolling along up front should hinder them more so than him.

I don't think it's a case like a Point Given in the Ky Derby... because PG didn't have quite the raw speed of a Curlin.



That Curlin was long gone by the Derby. If I recall correctly, you posted quite extensively on PA about how Asmussen had taken all the speed out of him with all those long, slow gallops.

:rolleyes:

[Cannon Shell]

OK, so how do you explain Zenyatta beating that slug last out by a nose if the slow pace didn't matter?

I'm sorry you don't understand how it can work both ways. It is pretty obvious when you make pace figures for a living. In the Past the Point race, Curlin ran about 10 Beyer points faster to the pace call than he did any other route race in his life to maintain his usual stalking position. Of course he wasn't going to have his usual finishing kick.
Zenyatta is an out the back of the pack dead closer. Curlin wasnt.

While I can understand that he didnt have his usual closing kick, he barely had enough to outfinish the horse who set that wicked pace.

All I am saying is that Curlin was not nearly as great as his overzealous owner and fans seem to think and that his less than fantastic final race lowered his stature enough that he has already seemingly been passed by RA.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

That Curlin was long gone by the Derby. If I recall correctly, you posted quite extensively on PA about how Asmussen had taken all the speed out of him with all those long, slow gallops.

:rolleyes:

He didn't exactly train him the way Baffert would - that much is for sure.

Christ, he was only a length in front of AP Arrow after a half mile in that race. The whole field was going too fast. It's not like a case in this year's Woodward where you had one rider smart enough to position his horse WAY behind everyone else.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Curlin's North American wins.... and how his winning Beyer compares with other editions of the race this decade...


7f 3yo MSW at GP 102 Beyer (outright fastest 3yo MSW at GP going 7fs this decade)

Rebal Stakes at OP 99 Beyer (tied for 5th fastest of 10 highest Beyers this decade)

Arkansas Derby at OP 105 Beyer (5th fastest of 10 this decade)

Preakness Stakes - 111 Beyer (tied for 5th fastest of 10 this decade)

Jockey Club Gold - 114 Beyer (3 way tie for 4th fastest of 10 this decade)

Breeders Cup Classic - 119 Beyer (tied for 2nd fastest of 9 this decade)

Stephen Foster - 110 Beyer (tied for 6th fastest of 10 this decade)

Woodward - 112 Beyer (5th fastest of 10 this decade)

Jockey Club Gold Cup - 111 Beyer (tied for 8th fastest of 10 this decade)


The only two winning figures he's earned that aren't your middle of the road par type numbers for the class ... are his debut win and his blowout BC Classic win.

Not to take anything away from his dynamite race in the Classic .. but it did come over a very wet Monmouth race track that tends to produce exaggerated large margins of victory.

Ghostzapper ran a very conservative 128 Beyer on a wet Monmouth track - Rachel Alexandra's 116 over a wet Monmouth track is the fastest Haskell ever .. even including Holy Bull's and Skip Away's... and Phil seems to think her number could have been a lot faster. Curlin's 119 wasn't a conservative number imo.. but probably wasn't too high either.

Curlin was basically an excellent 3yo and a pretty good older horse who didn't develop and improve a whole lot from 3 to 4. He benifited from being the best 3yo of a solid enough but very overrated 3yo crop.

[cmorioles]

Zenyatta is an out the back of the pack dead closer. Curlin wasnt.

While I can understand that he didnt have his usual closing kick, he barely had enough to outfinish the horse who set that wicked pace.

All I am saying is that Curlin was not nearly as great as his overzealous owner and fans seem to think and that his less than fantastic final race lowered his stature enough that he has already seemingly been passed by RA.

Anyone that thinks his race on rubber proved anything about the kind of horse he was knows nothing about betting this sport. I don't really care what "fans" think, they don't bet anyway.

Barely outfinish? He won by a length and a quarter, not a desperate nose.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Curlin, overrated and all, very likely would have killed those two Euro's and Tiago on dirt.

Not beaten them .... killed them.

[cmorioles]

Curlin's North American wins.... and how his winning Beyer compares with other editions of the race this decade...



I understand Jerry Brown is way over the top on how he thinks horses have gotten faster the last 10 years or whatever it is. But I think Beyer is going overboard the opposite way. What has happened to the average Beyer in top class races the last five years? I have to imagine it has shrunk.

It has a lot to do with the differences between claimers and stakes horses in my opinion. It has changed quite a bit with the proliferation of slots. Notice how the stakes Beyers have shrunk at the big tracks for stakes races, while at the slots tracks they always seem to come back too high for their big money races?

Think on that for a few days before posting these historical comparisons.

One side note, it makes what Rachel is doing more impressive in my mind.

[Danzig]

Curlin, overrated and all, very likely would have killed those two Euro's and Tiago on dirt.

Not beaten them .... killed them.


i agree. fwiw.

[TropicalStorm]

Curlin would not have beaten Ravens Pass on the dirt or anything. Maybe earlier in his career but he was nothing special at the end of his 4yr old year. It was a long year that started in Dubai. Ravens Pass could run on anything. His pedigree was fine for dirt. He was a great horse.

[cmorioles]

Curlin would not have beaten Ravens Pass on the dirt or anything. Maybe earlier in his career but he was nothing special at the end of his 4yr old year. It was a long year that started in Dubai. Ravens Pass could run on anything. His pedigree was fine for dirt. He was a great horse.

How do you possibly know he could run on dirt?

[NTamm1215]

How do you possibly know he could run on dirt?

Oh gosh, he was by Elusive Quality, doesn't that mean he could run on dirt?

I've learned lately in this place to not step on the toes of the clairvoyant. They're out in abundance.

NT

[brianwspencer]

Curlin would not have beaten Ravens Pass on the dirt or anything. Maybe earlier in his career but he was nothing special at the end of his 4yr old year. It was a long year that started in Dubai. Ravens Pass could run on anything. His pedigree was fine for dirt. He was a great horse.


:tro: :tro:

:wf

[Revidere]

Anyone that thinks his race on rubber proved anything about the kind of horse he was knows nothing about betting this sport. I don't really care what "fans" think, they don't bet anyway.

Barely outfinish? He won by a length and a quarter, not a desperate nose.

The Breeder's Cup just proved he was over the top since his Dubai race. He was extended to beat Past the Point and extended to beat Wanderin Boy. Thats the view from this betting "fan".

The horse threw a 22 second 4th quarter in the Breeder's Cup and hit the wall at the 1/8 pole. all earmarks of a horse that has seen his best days behind him.

He was a real good horse, not an all time great.

[Travis Stone]

Everyone wants to talk about his 4-year-old year, but how about Curlin's BC Classic performance and his gutsy win over Lawyer Ron at Belmont? Sure, Lawyer was not at his ideal track and was on the way down, but it was still a solid win over a good handicap horse. I thought his Classic win was most impressive visually... he strided-out powerfully against the very underrated Hard Spun. Add to it he wins the Preakness with little experience against Street Sense who was in career form with the better trip to boot.

Yeah, he wasn't Secretariat... but he was talented.

[Indian Charlie]

Oh gosh, he was by Elusive Quality, doesn't that mean he could run on dirt?

I've learned lately in this place to not step on the toes of the clairvoyant. They're out in abundance.

NT

I'm impressed. That's quite literate of you!

[CSC]

Oh gosh, he was by Elusive Quality, doesn't that mean he could run on dirt?

I've learned lately in this place to not step on the toes of the clairvoyant. They're out in abundance.

NT

In a way handicapping is alot like being a clairvoyant. You just have a Potpourri of them here.

[gamblin4ever]

Curlin, overrated and all, very likely would have killed those two Euro's and Tiago on dirt.

Not beaten them .... killed them.

The Euros wouldnt have raced if on dirt and Tiago was nothing special period. The only reason the Euros came over is the race was on synthetics. IMO:D

[philcski]

Maybe the problem, then, PHil, is what I've been alluding to all along: that the METHODOLOGY is flawed. Since these aren't time trials, with horses running individually or restricted to lanes, maybe the 'fastest' notion in terms of a number is not the way to go. If so many SLOW horses are winning on synthetics, then, I know that if I were a trainer or owner, I'd get my stock over there and win a whole bunch of races with my fast dirt horses. That this isn't happening sort of works against the methodology, don't you think?

I mean, arguing that these horses are SLOW is like the learned Jesuits of Galileo's era arguing for an Aristotelian view of the world because the CHURCH told them to save that view at all cost. What exactly is the excuse for all the BEYERITES here continuing to argue that these horses are SLOW? Time for a paradigm shift when your theory leads to ridiculous results.

Beyer's methodology is flawed in that the projection method has allowed the person in charge of assigning the number at each specific track too much leverage in massaging the numbers to make them "fit" what they think should have happened. If a number comes up "too fast" or "too slow" they allow themselves the liberty of splitting the variant multiple times to move the number. That being said, even if the numbers were accurate, it's up to the handicapper to determine how the prior trip affected the number and what today's trip will project. Betting speed figures, even good ones, blind is a road to the poor house- we agree on that. However, what they are supposed to do is separate the contenders from the pretenders. If a trip horse stepping up in class has never run a race within 5 lengths of a winning one for said new level, is he worth a bet at 3-1? 5-1? 10-1? 20-1? None whatsoever?

The problem I have with polytrack is with horses like Fatal Bullet- a horse I happen to like quite a bit having met the owner & trainer and the horse. He is a remarkably good horse on synthetics, obviously, with a record of 8 wins and 2 seconds in 10 starts including a great 2nd in last year's BC Sprint behind an absolute beast. The problem is, he can't even stand up on real dirt. His last two starts on dirt he's gone off at 5-1 and 6-1 and has been beaten a combined 34 lengths even though his early speed should work well on supposedly speed biased real dirt. How is this stuff supposed to be a replacement for dirt when the best horses in the world on poly can't run on real dirt? Conversely, Fabulous Strike, unquestionably one of the world's best sprinters- and beat Fatal Bullet like a drum at Saratoga on real dirt- clearly has problems on synthetic. There are very few Einsteins that perform admirably on both surfaces and a lot more Fatal Bullets and Fabulous Strikes.