2/24 (GP): Fountain of Youth (Gr. II)

[Kasept]

9th (5:15) Fountain of Youth S. (G2)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $350,000

1 Cool Coal Man Desormeaux K J 118 L
2 Golden Spikes Castellano J J 116 L
3 Court Vision Gomez G K 122 L
4 Kentucky Bear Trujillo E 116 L
5 Z Humor Velasquez C 120 L
6 Ready Set Lezcano J 116 L
7 Monba Prado E S 116 L
8 Anak Nakal Leparoux J R 120 L
9 Elysium Fields Coa E M 116 L
10 Halo Najib Douglas R R 120 L
11 Make the Point Velazquez J R 116 L
12 Adriano Castro E 116 L

[lemoncrush]

I'm a little surprised by some of the Jockey assignments.
Prado on Monba?
Surprising JV or Gomez isn't riding what could be Pletcher's best hope for a Derby contender.
And I thought Leporoux was on Court Vision?

[Coach Pants]

Elysium Fields for me. I think it's his coming out party.
I'm been high on him as well. An inside post would've been nice. :mad:

[fpsoxfan]

Elysium Fields for me. I think it's his coming out party.


He does look like a contender. Always in the hunt. Right now, I am very interested in Make The Point. McLaughlin is the man when it comes to stretch outs and 2nd off. Will I get a price??

[ninetoone]

Monba for me here.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

kentucky bear./e fields /momba tri

[miraja2]

Personally I think this is a really good betting race. It seems like you could go a lot of different ways with this one, but I think Zito's chances here are very good.

[pgardn]

Coa has ridden Anak and Court Vision and now on E. Fields.
I find this interesting. I have no idea about arrangements
and trainers likes and dislikes with Jockey's "fitting" certain
horses. Is it that Coa made this choice and will it be as
bad as Calvin's decision to take Turf war getting off the
winner...?
I dont often trust the Jockey's decisions if they are given
that privilege.

[pick4]

What has Court Vision done wrong thus far? The only thing I can see is Mott entered him in a slow paced Remsen and the jock managed to get him bottled up until the 1/8 pole. He ran a much better race than the 76 BSF said he did.

Since this is his first race back he could be a little short. Plus his running style might not be right for the Gulstream Park track. There seems to be enough speed horses in the field to run a legitimate pace. If the track is fair he might be able a serious player. He'll be on my multis and if he's 4-1 or higher I'll place a win bet on him.

[ateamstupid]

What has Court Vision done wrong thus far? The only thing I can see is Mott entered him in a slow paced Remsen and the jock managed to get him bottled up until the 1/8 pole. He ran a much better race than the 76 BSF said he did.

Since this is his first race back he could be a little short. Plus his running style might not be right for the Gulstream Park track. There seems to be enough speed horses in the field to run a legitimate pace. If the track is fair he might be able a serious player. He'll be on my multis and if he's 4-1 or higher I'll place a win bet on him.

That's for sure. I count six horses that should be on or near the lead, and Pletcher appears to be putting some speed into Monba as well. I think the race sets up well for a horse like Court Vision, provided he doesn't drop too far out of it. Then again, I could see half the field winning this race.

[pick4]

The tricky thing about this race in terms of wagering is this race is only a prep race for Court Vision. Winning the race might not be the goal for the connections.

[Cajungator26]

The tricky thing about this race in terms of wagering is this race is only a prep race for Court Vision. Winning the race might not be the goal for the connections.

And this is what I don't get... why wouldn't the connections want their goal to be a win for their horse in a prep? Is it some sort of jinx to have your horse actually WIN the race that it's entered into? Another thing too is that this race is a prep for most of them entered, not just Court Vision...

[Danzig]

And this is what I don't get... why wouldn't the connections want their goal to be a win for their horse in a prep? Is it some sort of jinx to have your horse actually WIN the race that it's entered into? Another thing too is that this race is a prep for most of them entered, not just Court Vision...

excellent point!

premeditated excuse perhaps???

[robfla]

why wouldn't the connections want their goal to be a win for their horse in a prep? Is it some sort of jinx .

maybe to build a foundation for a race that has a longer distance, is more prestigious, and has bigger purse - but thats too obvious

[Cajungator26]

maybe to build a foundation for a race that has a longer distance, is more prestigious, and has bigger purse - but thats too obvious

So, are you saying that the winner of the prep race doesn't gain that same foundation?

[SniperSB23]

So, are you saying that the winner of the prep race doesn't gain that same foundation?

The winner may need the graded earnings to get in so may be cranked up to peak for this effort to assure they get the earnings. Court Vision already has the earnings so they can take it easier with him and work towards a peak performance on Derby Day. Personally I think Court Vision will lose because he's too slow, not because he isn't cranked up but the more excuses I can give for the horse the more likely people are to continue burning money on him this year.

[Cajungator26]

The winner may need the graded earnings to get in so may be cranked up to peak for this effort to assure they get the earnings. Court Vision already has the earnings so they can take it easier with him and work towards a peak performance on Derby Day. Personally I think Court Vision will lose because he's too slow, not because he isn't cranked up but the more excuses I can give for the horse the more likely people are to continue burning money on him this year.

:o

That will be me, probably. LOL

[Indian Charlie]

if adriano at all takes to dirt, and he's bred much better for dirt racing than turf racing, this race is over.

his 2nd dam was the very nice theatrical mare golden treat, who couldnt run a step on turf, but did manage to set a track record for 4.5 furlongs on dirt and later won the santa anita oaks. golden treat herself is also a half sister to the greatly under appreciated bet twice.

his last race was spectacular, so either he just really loved the gp turf, or he has matured and developed.

my only question is why were they running this horse on turf in the first place?

[blackthroatedwind]

my only question is why were they running this horse on turf in the first place?


The usual reason.....he sucks on the dirt.

[Indian Charlie]

based on what BTW?

he debuted on turf as a pretty early season 2yo. and if he sucks on dirt, why the placement of him here, instead of aiming him for all the turf races and a likely turf eclipse award?

those ap indy - mr p mare crosses sure seem okay on dirt to me, and this horse has no turf breeding in him at all.

it seems pretty far fetched to say he sucks on dirt at this point.

[Coach Pants]

He'll have to be a super horse to win from that post AND have Eddie Castro on his back.

[Travis Stone]

So, are you saying that the winner of the prep race doesn't gain that same foundation?

Building the foundation is part of it, but the prep race is more about not being 100% cranked and shooting your wad before the main goal. The ideal scenario in my opinion for a prep is a real easy win, where you get some foundation and the check, without hurting the muscles. Figuring out preps/intent is tricky.

[Indian Charlie]

yeah, the post is a concern, but this field is so awful, i actually think court vision and monba look like standouts (minus adriano). i think both of those are pretty weak at that, so my perhaps wishful thinking says he can overcome his post based on being superior.

as for the jock, well, i think they are all liabilities. anyone not named gomez at this point seems to be a cancer.

[Cajungator26]

He'll have to be a super horse to win from that post AND have Eddie Castro on his back.

Agreed.

[blackthroatedwind]

based on what BTW?

he debuted on turf as a pretty early season 2yo. and if he sucks on dirt, why the placement of him here, instead of aiming him for all the turf races and a likely turf eclipse award?

those ap indy - mr p mare crosses sure seem okay on dirt to me, and this horse has no turf breeding in him at all.

it seems pretty far fetched to say he sucks on dirt at this point.


It seems pretty far fetched that he's good on the dirt actually.

Trainers run horses on the turf, unless they have exceptional turf breeding and no dirt breeding, because they are too slow to run competitively on the dirt. The opportunities and financial upside in dirt racing FAR outweighs turf racing in this country. For this reason, trainers will rarely run on the turf first out unless they are fairly certain the horse has no affinity for the dirt. Sometimes they will try once, see Cowboy Cal, but once their opinion has been confirmed they will go the grass. It is very rare that a horse that begins its career on the turf will run well on the dirt in subsequent starts. Occasionally at trainer will use a turf start as a prep, but clearly this isn't the case for Adrianno.

There are no absolutes in this game but over my lifetime of playing horses I have benefited greatly from tossing horses like Adrianno who are bet on the dirt based on grass races. These horses bomb way more often than not.

[blackthroatedwind]

Of course, now seeing that you like Monba, not to mention Court Vision, I see you are completely confused.

Monba, in my opinion, is the very essense of the emperor's new clothes. Where the phuck is his good race? If he was trained by Joe Nobody, and not Pletcher, he would be 15-1.

[VOL JACK]

[QUOTE=blackthroatedwind]The usual reason.....he sucks on the dirt.

I would disagree. I think that Motion is a trainer that puts everything on the turf first, then if they don't handle it, use the dirt as the back up surface.
Afterall, he does train his horses on the Tapeta at Fair Hill. When horses work good on the synthetic, trainers automatically assume they want the turf.
Bottom line is that G. Motion is a turf trainer; and imo as good of a horseman as we have in the game.

[miraja2]

this field is so awful, i actually think court vision and monba look like standouts (minus adriano).
I don't think this field looks awful at all. There are no sure-fire standouts to be sure, but there are a number of horses who are coming off fairly nice races in their last starts.
Cool Coal Man, Kentucky Bear, Anak Nakal, Elysium Fields, and Make the Point are all coming off decent wins. For a race like the Fountain of Youth, I don't think this is a terrible field.

[blackthroatedwind]

I would disagree. I think that Motion is a trainer that puts everything on the turf first, then if they don't handle it, use the dirt as the back up surface.
Afterall, he does train his horses on the Tapeta at Fair Hill. When horses work good on the synthetic, trainers automatically assume they want the turf.
Bottom line is that G. Motion is a turf trainer; and imo as good of a horseman as we have in the game.

Graham Motion is a very good trainer.....and apparently not an idiot. He would have run this horse on the dirt if he felt it liked the surface. He runs plenty of horses, including 2YOs, on the dirt.

[Indian Charlie]

Of course, now seeing that you like Monba, not to mention Court Vision, I see you are completely confused.

Monba, in my opinion, is the very essense of the emperor's new clothes. Where the phuck is his good race? If he was trained by Joe Nobody, and not Pletcher, he would be 15-1.

actually, no, i dont like either of them. i think both court vision and monba have very little talent and are virtual no hopes for the triple crown races.

my point in saying they looked like standouts in that race (minus adriano) is that the rest of the field looked like even bigger garbage.

cool coal man looks pretty bad as does golden spikes.

i find kentucky bear quite interesting, but it isn't the most favorable spot for a horse coming off it's debut, is it?

z humor? ick

ready set looks awful.

anak nakal has the potential to win this, but i just don't get the hype on this horse. he looks worse than court vision, but who knows.

the sniper horse, elysium fields, does nothing for me at this point, though he does have some upside.

halo najib? another horse with some hype that doesn't seem well founded to me.

make the point is a big question mark to me, but i dont like the breeding for this distance. i suppose i should watch a race of his though before i condemn him.

i can think of a few horses that debuted on turf and ended up doing okay on dirt, but most horses that do debut on turf are bred for it, so it's not that surprising to me that most don't make a successful transition.

[Indian Charlie]

I don't think this field looks awful at all. There are no sure-fire standouts to be sure, but there are a number of horses who are coming off fairly nice races in their last starts.
Cool Coal Man, Kentucky Bear, Anak Nakal, Elysium Fields, and Make the Point are all coming off decent wins. For a race like the Fountain of Youth, I don't think this is a terrible field.

i dont know man. cool coal man looks awful if you ask me. you can make an okay case for the others you name, but i really feel that adriano is such a much better horse than anyone in here, that he really needs to only handle the dirt to beat these.

[Indian Charlie]

I find it very hard to believe Adriano is going to win this race, with that post on the dirt. I just can't see it happening.

think halfbridled in the bc dude.

if one is so much better than the others (assuming he doesn't hate dirt, as BTW implies), he should be able to overcome some lost ground.

[Cajungator26]

think halfbridled in the bc dude.

if one is so much better than the others (assuming he doesn't hate dirt, as BTW implies), he should be able to overcome some lost ground.

How many have overcome that lost ground at Gulfstream?

[bogeydaman]

[QUOTE=Indian Charlie]if adriano at all takes to dirt, and he's bred much better for dirt racing than turf racing, this race is over.QUOTE]

[QUOTE=cool coal man looks pretty bad as does golden spikes.QUOTE]

IMO the larger issue (not that the turf/dirt question is inconsequential) is the post. Out of 18 2 turn races on the dirt at GP this meet, 17 have been won from the 1 through 4 posts (12 (66%) by the 1 and 2 alone). I wouldn't touch this horse at 40-1.

Might also want reconsider Cool Coal man and Golden Spikes who both look to sit perfect trips from the inside.

[SniperSB23]

think halfbridled in the bc dude.

if one is so much better than the others (assuming he doesn't hate dirt, as BTW implies), he should be able to overcome some lost ground.

Not at 9 furlongs at Gulfstream.

Is Barbaro still the only one to win from an outside post since the reconfiguration? How many have won from 9-12?

[Indian Charlie]

The difference is NO ONE wins from post 12 at Gulfstream going 9 furlongs and why do you think he is so much better than these? I agree Monba and Court Vision suck, but what has Adriano done that makes him stick out so much? I'm not being sarcastic, but I don't see it, so what am i missing?

i didn't realize the stats for the outside going 9f there was so abysmal.

to answer your question though, i feel that he's so much better by watching him run. his last race was so much more impressive than anything i've seen in this crop so far (minus war pass).

that might not be a logical explanation to you, but i'm pretty decent at this sort of thing. he was just extremely visually impressive. i like his stride and his way of going, he seems to have more than enough stamina, and as of his last race, has a pretty nice turn of foot.

[blackthroatedwind]

Apparantly Adriano has some hidden race that only the poster Indian Charlie has seen. Apparently he possesses some sort of ability that doesn't show in his pps. Surely none of his races last year were anything to write home about. Not bad, but certainly nothing spectacular, and probably worse than just about any race the rest of the field has run. And, then there's his race this year, where he sat a perfect trip behind a pace that collapsed so badly that a horse as bad as the second finisher, Ablazewithspirit, was even able to give the appearance of being decent. In case, like Indian Charlie, you're not familiar with Ablazewithspirit, he broke his maiden on the turf in a $40K maiden claimer in his previous start. The third finisher, who also benefited from the collapsing pace, lost to Celestial Comet by a like amount in his next start. I suppose I should call Bruce Lunsford and tell him to put that one on the TC trail as well.

So, all Adriano has to do to win this race is.....overcome post 12 and improve dramatically on the dirt. At 100-1 I'm not even sure he's a good bet.

[Indian Charlie]

yeah, think what you like man. i can take some heat for sticking my neck out.

if i'm wrong, so be it. but when i have a pretty strong opinion about horses like that, they usually do okay. perhaps tomorrow isnt his day due to the post he drew, but i see this as a horse with much more upside than anyone else in this race.

it would be nice to see him duplicate his last performance, sure, but that's part of the fun of this sport for me, seeing horses that have greater ability early in their career than most people give them credit for.

i'm just glad i was not around back in 05, when i thought barbaro was going to win the derby off his debut turf win. i probably would have been ridiculed to death.

is that a redboard?

[SniperSB23]

yeah, think what you like man. i can take some heat for sticking my neck out.

if i'm wrong, so be it. but when i have a pretty strong opinion about horses like that, they usually do okay. perhaps tomorrow isnt his day due to the post he drew, but i see this as a horse with much more upside than anyone else in this race.

it would be nice to see him duplicate his last performance, sure, but that's part of the fun of this sport for me, seeing horses that have greater ability early in their career than most people give them credit for.

i'm just glad i was not around back in 05, when i thought barbaro was going to win the derby off his debut turf win. i probably would have been ridiculed to death.

is that a redboard?

A lot of people liked Barbaro long before he hit the dirt. This horse aint Barbaro.

[Indian Charlie]

A lot of people liked Barbaro long before he hit the dirt. This horse aint Barbaro.

obviously.

however, there aren't exactly any bernardinis in this field either.

i'm going to change my pick in here! i like zito.

[SniperSB23]

obviously.

however, there aren't exactly any bernardinis in this field either.

i'm going to change my pick in here! i like zito.

No but there may be a Great Point. Or about 8 of them.

[blackthroatedwind]

You're not wrong that nobody here jumps off the page but it is actually a deeper field than we usually get and enough possibly OK horses that we probably won't see an undeserving winner per se. These horses are all so lightly raced that it's hard to have a true handle on anybody.

I think Kentucky Bear is the most talented horse in the race, which you mentioned, but I also worry about this being too much too soon. But, it's not like any of them are that experienced.

[SniperSB23]

Worth noting that Barbaro won the Florida Derby from post 10 so Adriano would actually have to do more than Barbaro did to win from 12. Of course scratches could alter things considerably with two questionable Zayat horses in the field.

[miraja2]

i dont know man. cool coal man looks awful if you ask me. you can make an okay case for the others you name, but i really feel that adriano is such a much better horse than anyone in here, that he really needs to only handle the dirt to beat these.
Why do you think Cool Coal Man looks awful? In my opinion he seems to be steadily improving and looks plenty competitive with these colts at this point.

[SniperSB23]

You're not wrong that nobody here jumps off the page but it is actually a deeper field than we usually get and enough possibly OK horses that we probably won't see an undeserving winner per se. These horses are all so lightly raced that it's hard to have a true handle on anybody.

I think Kentucky Bear is the most talented horse in the race, which you mentioned, but I also worry about this being too much too soon. But, it's not like any of them are that experienced.

I really like Kentucky Bear but I'm worried about the distance in addition to too much too soon. He's not exactly screaming distance pedigree. I hope he wins since I think he has the most upside here and we need some more really good horses to come out of this crop but I'm not sure if he is a good play.

[miraja2]

I really like Kentucky Bear but I'm worried about the distance in addition to too much too soon. He's not exactly screaming distance pedigree. I hope he wins since I think he has the most upside here and we need some more really good horses to come out of this crop but I'm not sure if he is a good play.
In my opinion he is likely to be the most overbet horse in the race.
Betting a colt with a sprinter's pedigree stretching out to 9f and stepping way up in class after an off-the-pace score going 8f is not usually a smart move as far as I am concerned.
Perhaps he is really just that good and wins, but as far as betting goes, I am looking elsewhere.

[cakes44]

I'm not really an angle handicapper, but that $.19 ROI on 2nd starters for Reade Baker is something else. I don't remember seeing a number that low in a graded race.

[ateamstupid]

i'm going to change my pick in here! i like zito.

Now you're gettin' it!

[Bobby Fischer]

kentucky bear has such a slim chance of being anything more than an allowance horse. Baker is known for send his 1st timers out in mid-season shape, and most of them are at a peak and good for maybe a maiden and an allowance. Kb drew into such a weak maiden field and it was pretty hard to tell if he really galloped out as well as it appeared or the field was that bad.

Plenty of better allowance horses entered like Cool Coal Man, Elysium Fields or even Golden spikes.

Can't see Make the Point or Adriano getting the trip they need, but they are decent horses. Worth reviewing their performances after the race with the track config in mind. You get 11 seconds to turn1.

For the sake of the division, like to see Court Vision, Anak Nakal, Monba, or Adriano run a big race. Not in love with Gomez on CV, although if Go-Go gives his good stuff their styles mesh well and could win it on the far turn.

[pick4]

And this is what I don't get... why wouldn't the connections want their goal to be a win for their horse in a prep? Is it some sort of jinx to have your horse actually WIN the race that it's entered into? Another thing too is that this race is a prep for most of them entered, not just Court Vision...

Obviously I'm not privy to the thoughts of the trainer and owner.What I meant is do you want this horse to run a race like Read The Footnotes and Second of June in the 04 FOY? It was a race that probably had adverse effects on each horse. I'm guessing that they just want to put a race into the horse and if they win that's great. However the ultimate goal being that he runs well and comes out of the race in good shape.

[brianwspencer]

What I meant is do you want this horse to run a race like Read The Footnotes and Second of June in the 04 FOY?

Or like Street Sense and Any Given Saturday last year at Tamp....oh wait, nevermind.

[pick4]

Or like Street Sense and Any Given Saturday last year at Tamp....oh wait, nevermind.

You might be correct.

[IrishofNDMan]

I'm going to go with Cool Coal Man, might be my only bet of the day.

[miraja2]

It will be interesting to see what the odds look like at post-time for this one.
Personally, I like Anak Nakal....especially if he is in the 6/1 range.

[ateamstupid]

It will be interesting to see what the odds look like at post-time for this one.
Personally, I like Anak Nakal....especially if he is in the 6/1 range.

My guess is someone goes off as a 7/2 favorite. As for who that'll be.. Uh, Monba?

[pgardn]

This seems to be a very competitive race.
I just dont really like anybody.
I guess
Court Vision looked good getting all boxed
in a roaring out in the Remsen
but that race was so slow and a while back.
The horse Court Vision caught took what
I thought was a very bad step early in the
backstretch and was really not running well
at the end at all.

I wish I had some feeling cause I think money
will be spread all over the board with what
look to be impressive allowance winners.

[wac]

It seems most think that Monba will be coming from off the pace but in his races before the race in Cali wasn't he near the pace? I've just got my fingers crossed tomm for a good performance b/c i have a future bet on him. I hated doing it at 15-1 but i love his breeding and the fact that he closed into fast fractions in that race in Cali. Dont have the money to bet right now so won't be betting tomm but am excited to see the race.

[Travis Stone]

Is it me, or is Make the Point the only horse first or second at the pace call in the entire fields last two starts? I know some are coming out of sprint races and are likely to have some early presence, but it's not like this race has three to five one dimensional speed balls.

[blackthroatedwind]

Is it me, or is Make the Point the only horse first or second at the pace call in the entire fields last two starts? I know some are coming out of sprint races and are likely to have some early presence, but it's not like this race has three to five one dimensional speed balls.


It's tough to clear from out there in 1 1/8 races at Gulfstream, and Halo Najib and even Anak Nakal should go enough inside of him, not to mention the real speed of Golden Spikes, even Cool Coal Man, and possibly Kentucky Bear and Z Humor, that he is almost doomed to five or six wide into the turn. Is he fast enough to go on from there? Possibly, but how much energy can he really expend to get the front without severly compromising his chances?

[Coach Pants]

I've settled on Cool Coal Man as my top choice. Running style fits the distance perfectly. The upgrade to Desormeaux doesn't hurt either.

[miraja2]

I've settled on Cool Coal Man as my top choice. Running style fits the distance perfectly. The upgrade to Desormeaux doesn't hurt either.
I like him as well. My prediction is that Zito runs 1-2 here, but I am not sure CCM will be the one on top.
But this race sure could go a lot of different ways.

[Travis Stone]

I think Make the Point has an extremely tall order in front of him. He'll probably be underlaid as well. This race is fascinating from a handicapping perspective. I'm still uncertain regarding the pace, I can see it tipping it both ways.

[fpsoxfan]

I think Make the Point has an extremely tall order in front of him. He'll probably be underlaid as well. This race is fascinating from a handicapping perspective. I'm still uncertain regarding the pace, I can see it tipping it both ways.

Coming up next with Nick and Tom!! I'll be listening!

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

I think Make the Point has an extremely tall order in front of him. He'll probably be underlaid as well. This race is fascinating from a handicapping perspective. I'm still uncertain regarding the pace, I can see it tipping it both ways.

:) Good job Travis with Tom & Nick, known those guys for over 15 years.....I got Nick's writing gig at the Recorder when he went to the Record, it's already been 10 years doing that. :eek:

[ArlJim78]

It's tough to clear from out there in 1 1/8 races at Gulfstream, and Halo Najib and even Anak Nakal should go enough inside of him, not to mention the real speed of Golden Spikes, even Cool Coal Man, and possibly Kentucky Bear and Z Humor, that he is almost doomed to five or six wide into the turn. Is he fast enough to go on from there? Possibly, but how much energy can he really expend to get the front without severly compromising his chances?

tough is an understatement.
there have been 16 9F races this year at Gulfstream

13 were won by horses in rail positions 1 , 2 , or 3 (13/48)
3 were won by horses in rail positions 4, 5, or 6 (3/46)
nothing outside of the six has won a race this year. (0/29)
of course it could happen today, but the advantage is to the inside for sure.

[Danzig]

an amazing stat.

[IrishofNDMan]

I've settled on Cool Coal Man as my top choice. Running style fits the distance perfectly. The upgrade to Desormeaux doesn't hurt either.

I'm with you Coach, probably be around 8-1 as well I'm guessing.

[hockey2315]

Golden Spikes might like the distance. . .

[Cajungator26]

Golden Spikes might like the distance. . .

His pedigree sure says so. :)

[brianwspencer]

Golden Spikes might like the distance. . .

That's who I like in here.

[zippyneedsawin]

I really like Kentucky Bear but I'm worried about the distance in addition to too much too soon. He's not exactly screaming distance pedigree. I hope he wins since I think he has the most upside here and we need some more really good horses to come out of this crop but I'm not sure if he is a good play.

Having a decent post, as well, makes him more playable than some others. I guess in a race that looks pretty wide open, ya gotta take a stand with one of them--- I'm going with KB. Good luck!

[sumitas]

Having a decent post, as well, makes him more playable than some others. I guess in a race that looks pretty wide open, ya gotta take a stand with one of them--- I'm going with KB. Good luck!

The Bear looks as good as any of them. BTW asked the question too much too soon ? We'll find out the answer soon.

[Hoist Her Flag]

Halo Najib and Adriano for me

[miraja2]

Halo Najib and Adriano for me
Are you serious?

[2MinsToPost]

I honestly think that anyone who overlooks Anak Nakal in this spot is possibly tearing up a ticket in a few minutes. Granted this horse may not win but I am banking otherwise. Wide open field and afterall it is a Derby Prep. Who sends their best effort and who does not, the usual affair. I like the jock on Anak Nakal, stays aboard again after 11/24/07. Zito trained so you know guns are ready. I see in my virgin handicapping eyes a quick speed duel out of the gate between Coal, Golden, Court, Bear and Z. As these 5 battle away with their inside post along comes Monba, Anak and Fields and when it is all said and done I see Anak on top with either Fields or Monba or Ready Set in second.

Call me crazy cause I am.

[Dunbar]

Someone please post the finish right after the race.

Thanks,
Dunbar

[Danzig]

i also think the race is wide open...i didn't see the past performances, but it doesn't matter really since i can't place a bet..

but i think it would be asking for trouble to choose any horses further out, judging by the stats i've seen for this track/distance.


i do like cool coal man...altho i think the name absolutely sucks.

[Danzig]

Someone please post the finish right after the race.

Thanks,
Dunbar

i'll do it!

[Dunbar]

Thanks, Danzig.

[King Glorious]

Four horse box of Anak Nakal, Kentucky Bear, Court Vision, and Make the Point. I like them to finish in that order.

[Danzig]

cool coal man
elysium fields
court vision
z humor

[Coach Pants]

Yes!!!

[Hoist Her Flag]

25 and 4 for 1/4 49 1 for the half 1:13 1 for 6 1:38 2 for the mile and 1:51 and 2/5 for the final time.

[Danzig]

wish i coulda bet!! 8-1 sheesh.

[Coach Pants]

That hardly ever works for me. So damn happy right now.

[IrishofNDMan]

That hardly ever works for me. So damn happy right now.

The Cool Coal Man does it!

[Dunbar]

Thanks.

How close was the finish?

--Dunbar

[pmacdaddy]

Nice work. Congrats!

[Hoist Her Flag]

Cool Coal man first by a long head. Elysian Fields re-rallied. You tell me Court Vision, Monba, Anak Nakal, Z Humor are not better than 10 lenghts behind a 25 and 4/5 quarter?

[justindew]

The final time was more than a second slower than a MSW event earlier on the card.

[Coach Pants]

Cool Coal man first by a long head. Elysian Fields re-rallied. You tell me Court Vision, Monba, Anak Nakal, Z Humor are not better than 10 lenghts behind a 25 and 4/5 quarter?
:rolleyes:

[King Glorious]

Pathetic racing at it's absolute best. Or is it worst? The lines are so blurred now, who can tell anymore?

[Hoist Her Flag]

Whats worse 12 horse fields out east with only 3 horses trying, or 5 horse fields out west?

[asudevil]

The final time was more than a second slower than a MSW event earlier on the card.
Alaazo is better than all of these!!!! Might I say....Much Better!!

[blackthroatedwind]

Alaazo is better than all of these!!!! Might I say....Much Better!!


Where did you hear that.....Facebook?

[Hoist Her Flag]

After watching that $5,000 claimer, Aloozo win at Monmouth puts him right there.

[blackthroatedwind]

Cool Coal Man was a " Hidden Horse " on my show after his debut.

[justindew]

I retimed the race three times, and got 1:49 4/5.

[Hoist Her Flag]

They are they are, slow... Cool Coal man I can respect, I just don't respect that Court Vision, who I don't even like is 18 lenghts behind a 49 and 1/5? He wasn't even that slow last year, Monba did he run? The pacesetter absolutely collapsed off that slow pace? The race doesn't make sense.

[Coach Pants]

1:49.8?

Solid.

[blackthroatedwind]

I retimed the race three times, and got 1:49 4/5.

I wonder if the entire race is two seconds off. Would make sense. The first four seperated themselves from the field early which makes it even more impossible the fractions were right.

[asudevil]

Where did you hear that.....Facebook?
Wouldn't know Facebook at all except for seeing the stories on the news.....Not interested in that yenta nonsense....Andy, I respect and admire your knowledge and insights on the sport....You have to just trust me on this horse

[justindew]

Also, I had the opening quarter in 24:1. It looks to me like the clock started when the gates opened.

[IrishofNDMan]

Facebook told me Court Vision and Z Humor, and although I did use both in my exacta and tri's, unlike when I bet Alazoo who was the facebook choice I took a stand on Cool Coal Man.

[Bigsmc]

Wouldn't know Facebook at all except for seeing the stories on the news.....Not interested in that yenta nonsense....Andy, I respect and admire your knowledge and insights on the sport....You have to just trust me on this horse

I'm sure Andy will stop handicapping now.

[blackthroatedwind]

Wouldn't know Facebook at all except for seeing the stories on the news.....Not interested in that yenta nonsense....Andy, I respect and admire your knowledge and insights on the sport....You have to just trust me on this horse


Now I know you're crazy.

[blackthroatedwind]

Also, I had the opening quarter in 24:1. It looks to me like the clock started when the gates opened.


Good stuff Justin.

I'm sure Randy Moss will time it properly.

[miraja2]

I liked the horse going into the race and said so in this thread.
However, as has been pointed out earlier, winning a 9f race at that track when you have some speed and are breaking from the 1-hole is not exactly an outstanding accomplishment.
He was an overlay today, but I think that the opposite could certainly be true in his next start.

[asudevil]

Now I know you're crazy.
Appreciate the compliment

[blackthroatedwind]

Appreciate the compliment

Only the truly insane can really appreciate lunacy.

[miraja2]

Here is the chart: http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=GP&CTY=USA&DATE=20080224&RN=9

[Danzig]

monba dead last....geez...

[Coach Pants]

Pletcher's horsies seem to be just under the magical amount. I love it.

[Bobby Fischer]

kentucky bear went off at 4-1 :cool:


kentucky bear has such a slim chance of being anything more than an allowance horse. Baker is known for send his 1st timers out in mid-season shape, and most of them are at a peak and good for maybe a maiden and an allowance. Kb drew into such a weak maiden field and it was pretty hard to tell if he really galloped out as well as it appeared or the field was that bad.

Plenty of better allowance horses entered like Cool Coal Man, Elysium Fields or even Golden spikes.

Can't see Make the Point or Adriano getting the trip they need, but they are decent horses. Worth reviewing their performances after the race with the track config in mind. You get 11 seconds to turn1.

For the sake of the division, like to see Court Vision, Anak Nakal, Monba, or Adriano run a big race. Not in love with Gomez on CV, although if Go-Go gives his good stuff their styles mesh well and could win it on the far turn.

[blackthroatedwind]

monba dead last....geez...

He was a fraud going in and a lot worse going out.

First of all, his only race on dirt was very weak. He beat a terrible field with a perfect trip, and secondly " gallop outs " are extremely misleading and misunderstood. It's one thing with a firster who's going too short if he really gallops out strongly but for Monba in California all he was doing was running faster than others being eased up after the race was over.

[ninetoone]

kentucky bear went off at 4-1 :cool:

Considering the morning lines, I guess Kentucky Bear was even more of a wise guy horse than Manba...of course, my dumb *ss kinda liked both of 'em...oh well :)

[miraja2]

Oh BF, are we supposed to quote ourselves when we get something right?
Okay how about....

Personally I think this is a really good betting race. It seems like you could go a lot of different ways with this one, but I think Zito's chances here are very good.

or maybe....

Why do you think Cool Coal Man looks awful? In my opinion he seems to be steadily improving and looks plenty competitive with these colts at this point.

or would you like...

(Kentucky Bear) is likely to be the most overbet horse in the race.
Betting a colt with a sprinter's pedigree stretching out to 9f and stepping way up in class after an off-the-pace score going 8f is not usually a smart move as far as I am concerned.
Perhaps he is really just that good and wins, but as far as betting goes, I am looking elsewhere.

Wow! I am smart!

[miraja2]

Now I just have to hope that nobody notices that I left out the one where I said I thought Anak Nakal would win.

[SniperSB23]

Now I just have to hope that nobody notices that I left off the one where I said I thought Anak Nakal would win.

Yeah, he was the disappointment of the day for me. Why did they take him back so far?

[paisjpq]

Now I just have to hope that nobody notices that I left off the one where I said I thought Anak Nakal would win.


it's improtant to select ONLY those posts which support your argument;)

[IrishofNDMan]

we can go back to an earlier thread about the most overtalked 3 yr olds this year where I said Anak Nakal.

[Coach Pants]

Elysium Fields for me. I think it's his coming out party.

I'm been high on him as well. An inside post would've been nice. :mad:

I've settled on Cool Coal Man as my top choice. Running style fits the distance perfectly. The upgrade to Desormeaux doesn't hurt either.
*pats self on back furiously*

*struts*

[Bobby Fischer]

Oh BF, are we supposed to quote ourselves

those are the only posts i read!:D

[the_fat_man]

He was a fraud going in and a lot worse going out.

First of all, his only race on dirt was very weak. He beat a terrible field with a perfect trip, and secondly " gallop outs " are extremely misleading and misunderstood. It's one thing with a firster who's going too short if he really gallops out strongly but for Monba in California all he was doing was running faster than others being eased up after the race was over.

I think you nailed this on the head. If a horse closes significantly in a race that doesn't come back, then you certainly make note of the effort. If a horse closes the best in a race where 5 of 11 (excluding the winner) are ALSO gaining late, why is there a need to take note? About the best you can say is that he was the BEST of the CLOSERS.

[ArlJim78]

Elysium Fields ran huge. Cool Coal Man got the jump on him and caught Coa napping, but he just kept rolling once asked. Considering the wide trip, he is the one that impressed me most in that bunch.

[pgardn]

Posted by DaHoss:

I like another Tagg colt Elysium Fields.

Damn good call from a while back.

[Cajungator26]

*pats self on back furiously*

*struts*

This is great. :D

[pick4]

I retimed the race three times, and got 1:49 4/5.

Take a look at DRF charts and you'll see that they timed the race in 1:49 2/5.

http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=GP&CTY=USA&DATE=20080224&RN=9

[wac]

With that time what kind of beyer are they going to give the winner?

[justindew]

Take a look at DRF charts and you'll see that they timed the race in 1:49 2/5.

http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=GP&CTY=USA&DATE=20080224&RN=9


Yeah, I timed it with the stopwatch feature on my cellphone. Not shocked I was off slightly.

[pick4]

see below

[pick4]

Unless Beyer & Associates updated the time to par chart a 1:49 2/5 is a 108. If the varient was 0 and there was no atmospheric change MSW winner Cosmic would have ran a 99.

Since there was 6 1/2 lengths seperation between Cosmic and Truth Rules my guess is we're looking at somewhere between 97 and a 101 for the FOY.

[pick4]

Yeah, I timed it with the stopwatch feature on my cellphone. Not shocked I was off slightly.

This was a big screw up with their timer and this has happened many times before at GP. I was shocked but pleasantly surprised to see DRF's chart. The race seemed more taxing on the front runners than the slow splits displayed.

[Cajungator26]

Cool Coal Man - 90
War Pass - 102

[easy goer]

Now I just have to hope that nobody notices that I left out the one where I said I thought Anak Nakal would win.

$2 of my money. DOWN THE CRAPPER!:mad:

[Cajungator26]

$2 of my money. DOWN THE CRAPPER!:mad:

$2... LMFAO :D

[ninetoone]

Were the times only off for the FOY, or other races as well?

[pick4]

Cool Coal Man - 90
War Pass - 102

The Beyer chart I'm looking at was printed in Beyer On Speed so it might have been updated but you giving a -18 route and a +1 varient for these two races. Cosmic running an 81 make sense. The winner of the 2nd Battle Tank with a 79 fits in.The fillies in race 6 figures to be in the ballpark.

Unless you heard it from the BSF fig makers your guesstimates make sense.

[Cajungator26]

The Beyer chart I'm looking at was printed in Beyer On Speed so it might have been updated but you giving a -18 route and a +1 varient for these two races. Cosmic running an 81 make sense. The winner of the 2nd Battle Tank with a 79 fits in.The fillies in race 6 figures to be in the ballpark.

Unless you heard it from the BSF fig makers your guesstimates make sense.

I heard those were the first computations. Cosmic received a 93.

[IrishofNDMan]

I'm on the Kentucky Derby facebook group and the Zayat boy is pulling out all the excuses. He gives me credit for picking Cool Coal Man, but says the slow fractions show him that it was not an impressive race. I then send him the DRF Chart link, and post the correct fractions and he goes on to say how it is crap they changed the fractions and there is noway they were going that fast because if they were those horses would have died on the lead and Z Humor or Court Vision would have won.

I know he wants his horse to win, but is he serious here?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

I went and checked that group out. I'm sure the Zayat kid is nice, but he seems like he is talking out of his ass. He's beyond unrealistic.
ya think.. regular cappers 188 face book 1 :eek: :D

[IrishofNDMan]

I went and checked that group out. I'm sure the Zayat kid is nice, but he seems like he is talking out of his ass. He's beyond unrealistic.

I know what your saying. I'm not doubting that he is not nice, and he is only like 15 so that could explain how he feels his dads horses are suppose to win everytime and if not something must have happened wrong.

I use a lot of the good information I get off of here to relay to that group. Your probably have seen a few post from Austin Langlois on there.

[pick4]

I heard those were the first computations. Cosmic received a 93.

If Cosmic ran a 93 and Cool Coal Man ran a 90 then must have been a sifnificant change in the track. Do you the track was that much faster later?

There were two dirt races prior to the FOY so I'm guessing they did the normal between race watering and maintenance that is standard. If Cosmic is assigned a 93 and CCM gets a 90 I would make sure to watch the horses out of each race closely. BSF figs is an art and they do make mistakes at times with projections and especially with the FOY which on track timer said 25 3/5 opening quarter.

[miraja2]

I went and checked that group out. I'm sure the Zayat kid is nice, but he seems like he is talking out of his ass. He's beyond unrealistic.
Say it aint so.....

[alysheba4]

Now I just have to hope that nobody notices that I left out the one where I said I thought Anak Nakal would win.......... too bad i pushed $$$ thru the windows on that pack mule........