2/18 (OP) Southwest Stakes

[miraja2]

Southwest Stakes
9th (5:02)
1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $250,000

1 Silver Edition Bravo J 115 L
2 He's Eze Quinonez L S 119 L
3 Liberty Bull Razo E Jr 119 L
4 Sacred Journey Leparoux J R 117 L
5 Turf War Borel C H 119 L
6 Sierra Sunset Emigh C A 119 L
7 Isabull Doocy T T 115 L
8 Denis of Cork Albarado R J 117 L
9 Gangbuster LeBlanc K P 115 L
10 Riley Tucker Desormeaux K J 115 L
11 Royal Hudson Hamel R 119 L

[miraja2]

Clearly this race is on 2/18.....not 2/12 as I (for some unknown reason) put in the title of this thread.
I'm losing my mind.

[Rileyoriley]

I'm going with Riley Tucker.:)

[IrishofNDMan]

Riley Tucker is the facebook tip, but I would take Denis of Cork over him coming off the layoff.

[Oaklawnfan]

Does anyone find it interesting that Jersey Joe Bravo is shipping in to ride the Lukas entry? Has Joe ever been over Oaklawn before?:eek:

[jms62]

Pretty wide open affair. 11 Entries quite unlike the public worksouts that pass for graded preps at Santa Anita this year.

[cakes44]

I guess there is a shorter stretch run on the mile races at Oaklawn. Has anyone else ever heard that?:D

[Oaklawnfan]

I guess there is a shorter stretch run on the mile races at Oaklawn. Has anyone else ever heard that?:D
The mile races start and end at the 1/16th pole which makes for a shorter closing stretch. Closing horses many times will start their move at the end of the backstretch moving into the far turn.

[hockey2315]

Stupid question - What time is this race in EST? 6, right?

[Travis Stone]

Stupid question - What time is this race in EST? 6, right?

Yes, 6:02 est.

[hockey2315]

Thanks, Travis

[Travis Stone]

Maybe I'm wrong, but Denis of Cork still has a long way to go in my book. He's a mere allowance winner over Unbridled Vicar who was less than stellar in the stakes at FG. And he's not that much faster on figures than anyone else in the race.

Interesting how Silver Edition continues this on-race, off-race pattern. Lukas horses often find ways of rebounding off poor efforts. Cozy inside draw too.

How good is the Delta Jackpot race? So far, subsequent efforts have been poor. Turf War took advantage of the race shape too.

Isabull is intriguing after breaking from post twelve last time and nearly winning the darn thing. That was he first start since November, too.

[pgardn]

Maybe I'm wrong, but Denis of Cork still has a long way to go in my book. He's a mere allowance winner over Unbridled Vicar who was less than stellar in the stakes at FG. And he's not that much faster on figures than anyone else in the race.

Interesting how Silver Edition continues this on-race, off-race pattern. Lukas horses often find ways of rebounding off poor efforts. Cozy inside draw too.

How good is the Delta Jackpot race? So far, subsequent efforts have been poor. Turf War took advantage of the race shape too.

Isabull is intriguing after breaking from post twelve last time and nearly winning the darn thing. That was he first start since November, too.

The other bull had a good run to from a much better position. Seems like both of these should be considered.

[Coach Pants]

Liberty Bull for the upset.

[IrishofNDMan]

Denis of Cork, He's Eze, Riley Tucker, and Silver Edition tri and exacta box.

[Coach Pants]

Well the race fell apart. Picked the wrong closer.

[IrishofNDMan]

had the right idea to throw out Turf War, just not the right horses in my box.

[miraja2]

had the right idea to throw out Turf War, just not the right horses in my box.
How in the world they sent that horse off as the favorite here is beyond me. Did they not see Z Humor's performance in Tampa this weekend? I can't believe Denis of Cork was the third choice.

[NTamm1215]

That Delta race has been the kiss of death the last 2 years. This year it appears it came up real bad.

Here's a little quick assessment of the horses who have run back:

Z Humor- 5th beaten 5 at 6/5 on 2/16 at Tam
Turf War- 9th beaten 8 on 2/18 at OP
Overextended- 9th beaten 12 on 12/22 at Hol
St. Joe- 7th beaten 38 3/4 on 2/2 at GP
Cave's Valley- 6th beaten 9 1/2 at 2-1 on 2/2 at AQU
Take the Money- 3rd beaten 6 1/4 on 1/18 at DeD

NT

[pgardn]

I think Sacred Light
might have been trying
to tear the arms off of J.Lep

[dylbert]

Here's a little quick assessment of the horses who have run back:

Z Humor- 5th beaten 5 at 6/5 on 2/16 at Tam
Turf War- 9th beaten 8 on 2/18 at OP
Overextended- 9th beaten 12 on 12/22 at Hol
St. Joe- 7th beaten 38 3/4 on 2/2 at GP
Cave's Valley- 6th beaten 9 1/2 at 2-1 on 2/2 at AQU
Take the Money- 3rd beaten 6 1/4 on 1/18 at DeD

NTYes, looks like Jackpot has become Derby Death Watch list, or Anti-Key Race. Still waiting on Golden Yank to emerge soon.

[wac]

You guys sound like your right on about the delta race.I hate that too b/c i put a future bet on zhumor and my goodness did he look awful in that race on Sat. I know that he washed out bad b4 the race but it wasn't his first race so why did that happen? I know that it was warm in Tampa on Sat but still, dont feel very good about that future bet at all. Guess i got suckered on this zhumor but at 48-1 i figured what the heck.

[Bogey]

I think Sacred Light
might have been trying
to tear the arms off of J.LepSacred Journey, Sacred Light was a deep closer.

[pgardn]

Sacred Journey, Sacred Light was a deep closer.

I knew I had a problem with anything holy.
Thanks.

[philcski]

I love that the Southwest is now graded. Seems to me that there's no better place to prep for the Triple Crown and the one issue the Oaklawn road had back in '04 (basically a one shot deal to get enough graded earnings) has been eliminated.

Now we all just need to start an "Arkansas Derby-G1" campaign and everything would be complete.

[Oaklawnfan]

While it only seems logical that the Arkansas Derby should receive Grade I status, I am not optimistic the powers that be will let that happen anytime soon.:mad:

[Danzig]

read the article in todays paper about the day yesterday. oaklawn had a very nice crowd there. sounds like it was a good day.
unless you're calvin borel!

[King Glorious]

While it only seems logical that the Arkansas Derby should receive Grade I status, I am not optimistic the powers that be will let that happen anytime soon.:mad:

Exactly. It's only logical that the Arkansas Derby should be on equal standing with the TC races.

[philcski]

Exactly. It's only logical that the Arkansas Derby should be on equal standing with the TC races.

How about on equal footing with the Wood Memorial at least?

Let's run through the list of winners since '04... Tapit, Bellamy Road, Bob and John, Nobiz... a combined ZERO TC board finishes and a grand total of what, 1 dirt win after that?

Arkansas Derby in the same stretch... Smarty Jones (2 TC victories and a 2nd), Afleet Alex (2 TC victories and a 3rd), Lawyer Ron (no TC success but several graded stakes victories since), Curlin (1 TC victory, 1 2nd, 1 3rd, a JCGC, BCC, and HOY)

I think that says enough.

Keep in mind, KG, this coming from a hardcore New Yorker.

[King Glorious]

How about on equal footing with the Wood Memorial at least?

Let's run through the list of winners since '04... Tapit, Bellamy Road, Bob and John, Nobiz... a combined ZERO TC board finishes and a grand total of what, 1 dirt win after that?

Arkansas Derby in the same stretch... Smarty Jones (2 TC victories and a 2nd), Afleet Alex (2 TC victories and a 3rd), Lawyer Ron (no TC success but several graded stakes victories since), Curlin (1 TC victory, 1 2nd, 1 3rd, a JCGC, BCC, and HOY)

I think that says enough.

Keep in mind, KG, this coming from a hardcore New Yorker.

1000% agree that it deserves to be on equal footing with the Wood. Same with the Florida Derby, Blue Grass, and SA Derby. My issue is more with any of them being grade ones in the first place. I don't feel like preps should be on equal footing with the main event, rating wise.

[Danzig]

Exactly. It's only logical that the Arkansas Derby should be on equal standing with the TC races.

should be on equal footing with the fla derby, the only other prep with a million dollar purse.

[Danzig]

1000% agree that it deserves to be on equal footing with the Wood. Same with the Florida Derby, Blue Grass, and SA Derby. My issue is more with any of them being grade ones in the first place. I don't feel like preps should be on equal footing with the main event, rating wise.

altho others are grade ones, only the derby, preakness and belmont are referred to as 'the classics'. everyone knows winning the gr 1 fla derby is not on par with winning one of the gr 1 classics.

[King Glorious]

altho others are grade ones, only the derby, preakness and belmont are referred to as 'the classics'. everyone knows winning the gr 1 fla derby is not on par with winning one of the gr 1 classics.

If everyone knows it, then it shouldn't be the same grade. IMO, the only grade one races for 3yo's should be the TC races, the Haskell, the Travers, the Super Derby, the King's Bishop, and the Secretariat.

[Travis Stone]

IMO, the only grade one races for 3yo's should be the TC races, the Haskell, the Travers, the Super Derby, the King's Bishop, and the Secretariat.

I obviously am extremely biased in this case, however, I don't think the Super Derby is quite ready to return to grade one status. Early this decade the race had a few runnings that hurt its points, but lately, we've done okay:

- Lawyer Ron (Second in '06... lots of points)
- Grasshopper (Mineshaft winner... lots of potential)

If we get a good chunk of points out of Grasshopper this year, the race is in much better shape.

[King Glorious]

I obviously am extremely biased in this case, however, I don't think the Super Derby is quite ready to return to grade one status. Early this decade the race had a few runnings that hurt its points, but lately, we've done okay:

- Lawyer Ron (Second in '06... lots of points)
- Grasshopper (Mineshaft winner... lots of potential)

If we get a good chunk of points out of Grasshopper this year, the race is in much better shape.

If you base it on it's recent runnings, no, it shouldn't be a grade one. But I look at it in a different sense. The reason I would make it grade one is in the hopes that it can become that type of race. After the TC, it would be nice to have a set path for the 3yo's to aim to. The Haskell is the first logical big one, coming just about two months after the Belmont. The Travers is obviously next in the sequence. From the Travers to the Super Derby, the timing is perfect and also gives them enough time to be ready for the BC. If I were in charge, I'd make it a grade one and separate it from races like the Penn Derby, WV Derby, etc. I'd try to keep a clear top tier of races for the top horses instead of giving them so many equal options to chose from that it keeps them from facing each other.

[SniperSB23]

If you base it on it's recent runnings, no, it shouldn't be a grade one. But I look at it in a different sense. The reason I would make it grade one is in the hopes that it can become that type of race. After the TC, it would be nice to have a set path for the 3yo's to aim to. The Haskell is the first logical big one, coming just about two months after the Belmont. The Travers is obviously next in the sequence. From the Travers to the Super Derby, the timing is perfect and also gives them enough time to be ready for the BC. If I were in charge, I'd make it a grade one and separate it from races like the Penn Derby, WV Derby, etc. I'd try to keep a clear top tier of races for the top horses instead of giving them so many equal options to chose from that it keeps them from facing each other.

Your idea would be great for the fans as we'd have far less G1 winners going into the Triple Crown and those that suffer minor injuries during the TC are less likely to be retired without being a G1 winner. Unfortunately what would be great news for fans is terrible news for the breeders who can't stand those horses as G1 winners and we all know who holds sway with the Graded Stakes Committee.

[Travis Stone]

I am not a particular fan of how races are graded in today's racing arena. I think there are numerous flaws. And really, grades are pointless from a racing fan and handicapping perspective. But that's a double-edged sword as owners and trainers point horses to particular races because of grades. What sounds like a slippery-slope is just a brutal system.

If I were czar, races would be graded on a "post-race" basis. And a races grade would never be set in stone. For example, this Southwest on Monday was probably a weak G3 race, however, if Denis of Cork goes on to do great things, the Southwest of '08 gradually rises in rank. I think this could add a lot of merit, excitement and more fairly represent the graded system as opposed to what we have now.

Basically, we are assigning the race a numerical quality before we know who is in it!

[SniperSB23]

I am not a particular fan of how races are graded in today's racing arena. I think there are numerous flaws. And really, grades are pointless from a racing fan and handicapping perspective. But that's a double-edged sword as owners and trainers point horses to particular races because of grades. What sounds like a slippery-slope is just a brutal system.

If I were czar, races would be graded on a "post-race" basis. And a races grade would never be set in stone. For example, this Southwest on Monday was probably a weak G3 race, however, if Denis of Cork goes on to do great things, the Southwest of '08 gradually rises in rank. I think this could add a lot of merit, excitement and more fairly represent the graded system as opposed to what we have now.

Basically, we are assigning the race a numerical quality before we know who is in it!

Your system would screw over top horses. If Asmussen announces that Curlin is going to the Suburban then everyone else goes to the Foster and a bunch of claimers show up for the Suburban. Now you are going to award a G1 to the winner of the Foster and not to Curlin cause he was in a weak field even though the winner of the Foster ducked him. They could deny the horse a G1 until the BC Classic just by ducking him so he never beats a quality field. Or if you think that Curlin alone makes a race a G1 then had he run in the Mineshaft you'd have to instantly upgrade that to G1 based on his presence and he could choose whatever easy races were convenient to him and win G1s in all of them. Grading them ahead of time is a good thing, in my opinion, for this reason.

[King Glorious]

I am not a particular fan of how races are graded in today's racing arena. I think there are numerous flaws. And really, grades are pointless from a racing fan and handicapping perspective. But that's a double-edged sword as owners and trainers point horses to particular races because of grades. What sounds like a slippery-slope is just a brutal system.

If I were czar, races would be graded on a "post-race" basis. And a races grade would never be set in stone. For example, this Southwest on Monday was probably a weak G3 race, however, if Denis of Cork goes on to do great things, the Southwest of '08 gradually rises in rank. I think this could add a lot of merit, excitement and more fairly represent the graded system as opposed to what we have now.

Basically, we are assigning the race a numerical quality before we know who is in it!

The problem, IMO, with this is that it focuses too much on just the winner of the race. Denis of Cork could go on to win the TC but that wouldn't mean that the Southwest was that much of a race. Would you also then rank the allowance race that Denis won before this? You'd have to look at the accomplishments of the entire field and you might have to wait a year or two before finalizing that ranking. Smarty beat Borrego in Arkansas in 2004. It wasn't until the summer and fall of 2005 when Borrego finally broke through and took the Pacific Classic and JCGC.

I think that there has to be a grade on a race before the race. There has to be something for people to point to. Otherwise, what's to stop Street Sense from going in the Travers, Hard Spun to the WV Derby, Curlin to the Penn Derby.......and all of them making the claim that their horse is the best horse and therefore their race is the biggest race and the others are ducking them?

[Travis Stone]

Your system would screw over top horses. If Asmussen announces that Curlin is going to the Suburban then everyone else goes to the Foster and a bunch of claimers show up for the Suburban. Now you are going to award a G1 to the winner of the Foster and not to Curlin cause he was in a weak field even though the winner of the Foster ducked him. They could deny the horse a G1 until the BC Classic just by ducking him so he never beats a quality field. Or if you think that Curlin alone makes a race a G1 then had he run in the Mineshaft you'd have to instantly upgrade that to G1 based on his presence and he could choose whatever easy races were convenient to him and win G1s in all of them. Grading them ahead of time is a good thing, in my opinion, for this reason.

Not true. The race rating would not go down because of bad horses, it can only go up with good horses.

If we put Secretariat and Forego in the gate with 11 $5k claimers, it would still be a grade one.

Obviously there are some kinks to be worked-out. However, you'll never convince me that giving a race a rating before having horses for it makes even remote sense. It's like saying the 2009 Super Bowl will be the greatest two teams to play in history. It's cart before the horse.

[Travis Stone]

The problem, IMO, with this is that it focuses too much on just the winner of the race.

The other horses to hit the board, or run 4th or 5th would help the quality of the race, too. It's not just the winner.

In terms of pointing towards races...

You can just reference the past year's race, or its historical trend. For example, the Travers will likely be a grade one every year. So that works.

Let's use the Super Derby.. earlier this decade the rating might be a tad low. But with Lawyer Ron running second, and then getting all those big wins the following year, the rating would go up. Grasshopper is also helping the "rating" as well. So trainers/owners/breeders this year would say, "The Super Derby is now a high grade two versus a low grade two it was four years ago."

Races would continually update with each passing day. When Monba runs on Sunday, he might help the rating of the CashCall Futurity if he runs well.

Like I said, there are some kinks. But I think if this were hashed-out, and sadly, I have a few pages of notes on this, it could work.

[King Glorious]

The other horses to hit the board, or run 4th or 5th would help the quality of the race, too. It's not just the winner.

In terms of pointing towards races...

You can just reference the past year's race, or its historical trend. For example, the Travers will likely be a grade one every year. So that works.

Let's use the Super Derby.. earlier this decade the rating might be a tad low. But with Lawyer Ron running second, and then getting all those big wins the following year, the rating would go up. Grasshopper is also helping the "rating" as well. So trainers/owners/breeders this year would say, "The Super Derby is now a high grade two versus a low grade two it was four years ago."

Races would continually update with each passing day. When Monba runs on Sunday, he might help the rating of the CashCall Futurity if he runs well.

Like I said, there are some kinks. But I think if this were hashed-out, and sadly, I have a few pages of notes on this, it could work.

But what do you do with the rating if Monba gets beat really bad and then Colonel John comes back to smash the Sham in his next race? We've seen Into Mischief come back and lose a couple. What about if next year Colonel John is HOY but Into Mischief is running in $50k claimers? If you say that the other horses in the race would help qualify it, that's very dangerous. Look at the Super Derby. Sure, Lawyer Ron went on to have a nice year the next year and Grasshopper appears ready to have one this year. But what about Going Ballistic, Past the Point, and Louisberg? What they do counts too and they could do more to drag the race down than Lawyer Ron and Grasshopper can do to raise it. Look at the 2004 Arkansas Derby. It appeared that Smarty had defeated a below average field at the time. It took until the summer of 2005 before Borrego started doing things. Do you wait over a year before you make the final grade of the race? Do you upgrade it each time Borrego wins and then turn around and downgrade it when he goes to Bay Meadows or Golden Gate and loses to a nobody? What about past races that Lava Man and Evening Attire were in? These horses are still racing so should their results today effect the grade of a race in 2004 or 2005? How far do you go back? How far ahead do you look?

Sniper is absolutely correct. If he were to go in the Suburban, it's very likely that no good ones would go to take him on. They might opt for the Foster and make that a tougher race depth wise. It would be like 2003. Mineshaft went to all of the big races and faced nobody while Medaglia d'Oro was facing Candy Ride in the Pacific Classic, Congaree was facing Perfect Drift in Kentucky and Pleasantly Perfect in California, they all were facing each other in the BC. If you were to look at the top six or seven ranked older males in 2003, Mineshaft only faced one of them. He only faced that one horse one time. And he lost to that horse. Other than that, he faced allowance quality fields and ended up as HOY. Was it his fault? No. When it was pretty clear that he was becoming really good and was moving to the leadership of the division, nobody went to face him. If they were grading those races after the fact, Mineshaft doesn't have any grade one wins and doesn't get horse of the year. But the truth is that we know that he was running in the best races and that others were ducking him. We know this because we know which races are supposed to be for the best before they run them. Doing it after the fact opens the door to too many people to duck and dodge and make claims that their race was the best and the other horses should have come to face them.

[Danzig]

If everyone knows it, then it shouldn't be the same grade. IMO, the only grade one races for 3yo's should be the TC races, the Haskell, the Travers, the Super Derby, the King's Bishop, and the Secretariat.

there are plenty of races that aren't on par with others in the same grade, whether a 1,2 or 3.
but if the fla derby can be a gr 1, then the ark derby should be as well, especially considering the type of horses who have been running there the last few years. certainly has left more of a mark recently then the bluegrass.

[easy goer]

Why not just go with size of the purse? Presumably the bigger purses should attract the best horses and presumably the best horses would win the biggest pots...

THey had this problem in chess, and finally they asked Kasparov "isnt the tournament with the most money the most important one?" "Yeah, basically that's it.." something like that.

Bad analogy. I know, but there's a pt in there..

[Mortimer]

Oh?