What myths can be put to rest?

[cmorioles]

BC Juvenile winner can't win the Derby.
A horse needs at least three preps.
Beyer can't pick the winner.
Working too fast can hurt the horse.
Outside posts are better than inside posts.
Pletcher knows how to prepare a horse for the Derby.


What others?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Those six are great ones.

I guess I'd have to add....

If your riding the favorite, you can't go from 19th place to 3rd place without leaving the rail and ever having a straw in your path.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Soon this grand race will be handicapped like any other daily race, no things from past running to throw out.

[skippy3481]

While, I don't disagree that some of the myths were disspelled, I think in a field as big as this, that you trends are important to help exclude horses. On this derby, any horse that was off longer then 5 weeks got tossed.. I always thought the whole juvenile-derby deal had to do with the horses that typically win the juvenile(being earlier developers and bred for speed) then the ones who win the derby(typically later developing or ones that improved the most during their 3 year old year) Street sense was an atypical juvenile winner and a more typical derby winner. I guess my point is everyone has something that helps them eliminate horses, and just because it doesn't fit one year, doesn't mean its a bad trend.

[pgardn]

Im starting to lean towards trainers with smaller barns. Naf man says let the horse take you where you need to go. Pletcher has 5 in. One man cannot be as personally attentive. Matz the year before. Pletcher had over 30 nominees. No way he can give personal attention. Pletcher obviously has a very good staff, but the days of the giant barn domination might be gone (Baffert, Lucas) for this one race that requires so much attention (and luck). Young horses that as two year olds need to be constantly reviewed. Naf man spent a lot of time on one very good animal. And if the animal had faltered and not shown him what he wanted to see, I feel fairly certain he would not have put him into the race. Why exactly did CQ take 8 weeks off? I dont think we got the real story. That could not have been the plan.

So the italicized piece is my major thought at this point, which is probably off thread, but there ya go.

[hi_im_god]

While, I don't disagree that some of the myths were disspelled, I think in a field as big as this, that you trends are important to help exclude horses. On this derby, any horse that was off longer then 5 weeks got tossed.. I always thought the whole juvenile-derby deal had to do with the horses that typically win the juvenile(being earlier developers and bred for speed) then the ones who win the derby(typically later developing or ones that improved the most during their 3 year old year) Street sense was an atypical juvenile winner and a more typical derby winner. I guess my point is everyone has something that helps them eliminate horses, and just because it doesn't fit one year, doesn't mean its a bad trend.

"On this derby, any horse that was off longer then 5 weeks got tossed."

hard spun was off 6 weeks and wins the race if street sense has to break stride at any point.

[randallscott35]

Somer is busy somewhere with a Sharpie.

[Danzig]

well, the two prep thing i felt wasn't that big an angle...didn't have a huge gap between the last horse to do it and yesterday.
i guess it just goes to show you that the right trainer, for the right horse, who he understands, can do the right thing and win it. much like matz last year.
also goes to show, that a smaller-time trainer (meaning a real hands on horsemen) such as matz, tagg, nafzger, can win this over a huge operation that can't possibly have enough individual attention paid by the 'trainer'.

[Cajungator26]

Well... one thing I WILL watch for is the horses coming over last minute from Keeneland. Pletcher didn't have a real final work over Churchill's surface with any of his horses (besides Sam P., right?)

[Danzig]

i think maybe todd should do more with the horses then just making sure he saddles them all come derby day. maybe a little more hands on throughout the spring?

[randallscott35]

well, the two prep thing i felt wasn't that big an angle...didn't have a huge gap between the last horse to do it and yesterday.
i guess it just goes to show you that the right trainer, for the right horse, who he understands, can do the right thing and win it. much like matz last year.
also goes to show, that a smaller-time trainer (meaning a real hands on horsemen) such as matz, tagg, nafzger, can win this over a huge operation that can't possibly have enough individual attention paid by the 'trainer'.

That's an excellent point Danzig. Megastables like Pletcher and Asmus don't just win b/c they have more horses in the race....Tagg and Servis and Matz and Nafzger....Couldn't be happier with these types of guys.

[byalip]

A good horse can overcome a donkey on his back...to wit, Curlin was good enough not to be hampered by that idiot Robbie Albarado.

[somerfrost]

Well... one thing I WILL watch for is the horses coming over last minute from Keeneland. Pletcher didn't have a real final work over Churchill's surface with any of his horses (besides Sam P., right?)

Good point, in the past, many trainers preferred to stay at Keeneland where it was a bit quieter and prepare for the Derby. Now, with the poly surface, things will probably change. It use to be something to look at...when a horse got to the track and whether he/she worked over it, then along came DWL and we heard "D Wayne off the plane" as he and others shipped in race day and won stakes all over the country. Poly is the future I suspect but many have pointed out that since a horse moves over it easier, they don't get the stamina (and possibly two year olds don't get the muscle/bone development) that horses working on dirt do. Carl had Street Sense at CD and it certainly didn't hurt. I will watch to see when he ships to Pimlico.
Regarding the angles, as Skippy said...they are helpful when used properly. I used them as I always do and still ended up with the winner as one of two horses I bet, last year I had Barbaro despite them...they are considerations/information not absolutes...a good horse can overcome trends, a great horse will overcome most anything. Saying Curlin disproved anything is ridicious, the 5LT race and 2yo race angles say "no horse has won"...Curlin didn't win...end of discussion! In fact he wasn't a serious factor. Yes, he had a rough trip...every year we hear from all the losers how rough a trip they had...it's part of the race!

[Pedigree Ann]

Street Sense was prepared the old-fashioned way. He raced from July to the start of November (end of October? I forget the exact date), then got the winter off. He didn't run again until mid-March, had plenty of time to grow up and develop into his frame. Secretariat had exactly the same sort of preparation, although he fit 3 races in before the Derby, not 2 -today's schedules would make a suitable 3 at 2-week intervals hard to find.

The thing he DIDN'T do was continue racing once every 5-6 weeks through the winter, which has become commonplace. A young horse who is continutally in race-training for 9 months will go off form or get injured at some point, unless it is Jim French, who ran his worst race off a 4-week rest. But Jimbo was a throwback, not a soft-boned Storm Cat descendent.

[skippy3481]

Yes, god i understand that about hard spun, in fact as i've stated several times, hard spun ran a hell of a race. However with 20 horses entered you have to find a way to eliminate some of them. This was one way i eliminated them. And last time i checked hard spun didn't win.

[cassie]

how much did the drug testing beforehand affect the pletcher, oneil ;asmussen horses?:confused:

[Danzig]

how much did the drug testing beforehand affect the pletcher, oneil ;asmussen horses?:confused:

all horses passed the test. and it was a surprise test, that ought to put that baby to rest.

[somerfrost]

how much did the drug testing beforehand affect the pletcher, oneil ;asmussen horses?:confused:


Since it was a surprise and there were no positives I'm not sure why the question??

[cassie]

how do you know it really was a surprise?

[somerfrost]

how do you know it really was a surprise?

Yeah, maybe someone was on that grassy knoll, and those alien abductions...

[GenuineRisk]

Street Sense was prepared the old-fashioned way. He raced from July to the start of November (end of October? I forget the exact date), then got the winter off.

That's a really interesting observation- I've read other articles discussing the year-round racing schedule and how it likely contributes to injuries because horses are in training year-round. The argument being a few months off gives minor injuries time to heal on their own before they become big ones. And vacations are good for most of us, mentally, I think. :)

[Danzig]

how do you know it really was a surprise?

well, by the same token, how do YOU know it wasn't? such logic, you've swayed me!:rolleyes:

[Danzig]

That's a really interesting observation- I've read other articles discussing the year-round racing schedule and how it likely contributes to injuries because horses are in training year-round. The argument being a few months off gives minor injuries time to heal on their own before they become big ones. And vacations are good for most of us, mentally, I think. :)

a lot of people have made the argument about wintering....wonder how many people realize that man o wars first start at three was the preakness?

[brianwspencer]

That's a really interesting observation- I've read other articles discussing the year-round racing schedule and how it likely contributes to injuries because horses are in training year-round. The argument being a few months off gives minor injuries time to heal on their own before they become big ones. And vacations are good for most of us, mentally, I think. :)

Perfect Drift's been getting winter vacations pretty much forever too, right?

[Pedigree Ann]

a lot of people have made the argument about wintering....wonder how many people realize that man o wars first start at three was the preakness?

Of course, in 1920 the Preakness wasn't a top race. A nice race to win, like the Haskell, but not a classic by any means. It wasn't even a scale weights race until 1924 - Man o' War carried 126 to Upset's 122 and Wildair's 114.

[Danzig]

right...but my point was that he didn't make his first start til may....of course these days, if a trainer attempts to do something like that, he gets roasted. but then again, once the racing started in may, about 10 starts in the year....

[Pedigree Ann]

Actually, the Aussies still do it this way to some extent. The top horses race in September and October every week or two weeks leading up to the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup carnival (ends first week of November), are 'spelled' for a couple of months, then start to gear up for the Sydney Easter Carnival, when they will race every week (or less!) again. Then another spell, until it is time to start gearing up for the spring in Melbourne again.

[zippyneedsawin]

Well... one thing I WILL watch for is the horses coming over last minute from Keeneland. Pletcher didn't have a real final work over Churchill's surface with any of his horses (besides Sam P., right?)


Good point. But CQ had proven he liked Churchill, so getting him to train there was a big deal... maybe it was for the others though.

[easy goer]

If it doesnt matter whether Street Sense ran a race in Feb. or not, then how can it matter whether Curlin ran a race in Dec. or not? Another myth?

[Danzig]

If it doesnt matter whether Street Sense ran a race in Feb. or not, then how can it matter whether Curlin ran a race in Dec. or not? Another myth?

i think it mattered that he only had 3 lifetime starts...and of course, unless you want to overrun your horse come spring, how else is your horse going to get racing experience then to run him at two?

would more racing, more experience, and more overall fitness (physical and mental) have made the difference between a board finish and a win?

[somerfrost]

If it doesnt matter whether Street Sense ran a race in Feb. or not, then how can it matter whether Curlin ran a race in Dec. or not? Another myth?

Obviously that's what you believe so why waste time arguing, the simple fact is that no horse without a two year old race has won the Derby since 1882. We've discussed the research that implies that two year old racing and training for a race is very important in a young horse's bone/muscle development so there is at least implied basis for that angle. If you can find research that applies to 3yo racing in February then that can be discussed.

[boswd]

Of course, in 1920 the Preakness wasn't a top race. A nice race to win, like the Haskell, but not a classic by any means. It wasn't even a scale weights race until 1924 - Man o' War carried 126 to Upset's 122 and Wildair's 114.


Ummm not true, in fact it was the Derby itself that did not carry the prestige. In those days of Man O' War, there really wasn't a Triple Crown persay, but the top races for 3 yrs Old were The Travers, The Preakness and the Belmont. The Preakness was a big race back then and was bigger than the Ky Derby.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Ummm not true, in fact it was the Derby itself that did not carry the prestige. In those days of Man O' War, there really wasn't a Triple Crown persay, but the top races for 3 yrs Old were The Travers, The Preakness and the Belmont. The Preakness was a big race back then and was bigger than the Ky Derby.

Nice to hear from you :) the "valley" crew says hi!
Looking forward to see you @ the Spa.

[boswd]

It's good to back, stupid work keeping me down.
Tell the crew I said Hi as well and yes only 79 days to the greatest opening day in sports, can't wait to see you guys there.